The Politics of the Black Sea Region

EU Neighbourhood, Conflict Zone or Future Security Community?

Carol Weaver

• Editorial: Routledge
• Año: 2016
• ISBN:
  9781317019923
• Edición: 1
• Categoría: Politica e relazioni internazionali
• Categoría: Geopolitica

The Black Sea region is a dynamic and complex area in which many national and international actors have key interests, including Russia and the US. The European Union stretches to the sea's western coast where it meets former Soviet territory as well as EU candidate Turkey. Regional tensions include those over NATO enlargement, a US anti-ballistic missile system, access to the Black Sea, democratization, spheres of interest and the conflict zones of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh and Transnistria. In addition, the region's close proximity to the Caspian basin offers the prospect of alternative energy resources and routes to western states. The Politics of the Black Sea Region: EU Neighbourhood, Conflict Zone or Future Security Community? explores and examines the many diverse political, security and economic interests that affect the region and the possible outcomes for it. By reviewing the wider history and examining the political systems and policies of the Black Sea nations and organizations as well as analyzing current tensions and future trends, it provides an invaluable, comprehensive and unique political guide to this fascinating area.

Chapter 1
An Introduction to the Politics of the Black Sea Nations

The nations around the Black Sea are many and varied and often depend to some extent on the sea itself for transport, defence, leisure, tourism and fishing. The Black Sea littoral countries of Russia, Ukraine and Georgia as well as the disputed land of Abkhazia were all part of the former Soviet Union, as were the other wider Black Sea countries of Moldova, Azerbaijan and Armenia and the disputed territories of Nagorno-Karabakh, Transnistria and South Ossetia. On the western side of the sea, Romania and Bulgaria were part of the Warsaw Pact, a security alliance between the Soviet Union and other Eastern European countries, whilst to the south Turkey and Greece were members of NATO from 1952.

As an introduction to the politics of the countries of the wider Black Sea region, this chapter will discuss the political systems and foreign policies of the individual states one by one, especially with regard to their relations with the EU and other Black Sea actors. The stated positions of the autonomous breakaway regions will also be briefly discussed. (Chapter 4 will focus on these conflict zones in detail.) This chapter is primarily for background information.

Armenia

Armenia is situated in the South Caucasus to the west of the main section of Azerbaijan and to the south of Georgia. On the west of Armenia is the closed border with Turkey and to the south is Iran. Armenia has no coast line and its economy is suffering in part due to the unresolved conflict of Nagorno-Karabakh. There is a large diaspora of Armenians especially in Russia and the US which helps to support the country. This diaspora is increasing in size due to the necessity for many young people to leave and find work elsewhere. The dispute with Azerbaijan and the closed borders are contributing towards the poor economy.

Armenia’s political system can be regarded as presidential although the prime minister and the parliament have some powers. The president is the head of state and is elected for five years with no more than two consecutive terms. The constitution was adopted in 1995 and amended in 2005. The president appoints government ministers upon the recommendation of the prime minister. It is a multiparty, illiberal democracy although many people are struggling to attain a more liberal democracy and succeeding to some extent. The prime minister is appointed by the head of state but should ideally be the person who commands the greatest confidence amongst the parliamentary deputies (members), according to the constitution. The prime minister is the chair of government councils regarding internal matters.

The president from 2008 has been Serzh Sargsyan of the Republican Party. After the 2008 elections there were protesters in the streets complaining about rigged elections. Some of these protesters were killed and others imprisoned. The last parliamentary elections in 2012, which also saw gains for the Republican Party despite all the country’s problems, were disappointing as many had expected there to be less corruption in terms of bribing voters and miscounting votes. The case of the ‘disappearing ink’ was particularly reported. Voters’ passports were stamped with ink to show that they had voted. These stamps were meant to last for at least a day or two but disappeared after only an hour or two allowing ‘carousel’ voting (Grigoryan 2012). Nevertheless before the elections there was more open access to the media than in previous elections. Despite this, the Armenian opposition asked European politicians to try to prevent the EU from saying, ‘There is some progress’ which only helps the ruling party (meeting personally attended 2012).

The Freedom House (2013) report ‘Freedom in the World’ rates Armenia as having a score of 5 (7 is the lowest) for political rights and 4 for civil liberties.

Given its land-locked geographical situation and disputes with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia is dependent on a few ‘friends’ including Russia, Iran and Georgia but above all on its own widespread diaspora. There is a treaty between Armenia and Russia agreeing that the latter will have a base at Gyumri, Armenia from 1995–2044. The Armenian diaspora has enormous lobbying ability in countries such as the US and France especially over issues such as ‘the genocide’ and it is generally anti-Turkish. Sometimes Azerbaijanis are accused of having been involved in the genocide but Azerbaijanis are not Turks despite their friendship with Turkey. Also, traditionally Turks are Sunni Muslim whilst Azerbaijanis are Shia Muslim.

According to the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia (2012) its stated foreign policy includes: strengthening the country’s external security; maintaining external favourable conditions for the development of the country; presenting the positions of Armenia internationally; raising the efficiency of protecting the interests of Armenia and its citizens abroad; deepening engagement in international organisations and processes; strengthening cooperation with friendly and partner states; resolving regional problems and creating an atmosphere of cooperation.

Armenia says it has a ‘special partnership and allied relationship’ with Russia, based upon traditional friendly ties between the two nations but it also attaches importance to the development and deepening of a friendly partnership and enhanced cooperation with the United States. However, one of the foreign policy priorities of Armenia is ‘integration with the European family’, on the basis of commitments, undertaken within the framework of cooperation with the European structures and organisations, and common values.

The website also says that Armenia attaches great importance to normal relations with neighbours and that Armenia advocates and seeks to establishrelations, based on open borders and partnership, always being ready for a healthy dialogue. Armenia does have good relations with its neighbours Iran and Georgia but extremely poor relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The latter will not open the border with Armenia until the Nagorno-Karabakh situation is resolved according to senior Turkish sources in 2012.

In particular Armenia states that one of the main tasks of its foreign policy is to create a peaceful and fair settlement of the Karabakh issue, based on the self-determination of the people. It says that the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement has to be based upon the following principles: the recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s right to self-determination; the ‘Nagorno- Karabakh Republic’ having uninterrupted land communication with Armenia, under the jurisdiction of the Armenian side; and the security of the Nagorno- Karabakh Republic being internationally guaranteed. According to Armenia, the agreement between all the parties to the Karabakh conflict should include solutions to all problems and the mechanisms that would ensure the implementation of those solutions in a single package (see later section on Nagorno-Karabakh).

Armenia is a member of various organisations including the CSTO, CIS, BSEC, CoE, EU’s Eastern Partnership, OSCE, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and NATO’s Partnership for Peace.

Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh

Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan is a country which is divided into two sections, one large and one small, with Armenia in-between them. The smaller region is called Nakhchivan and is surrounded by Turkey, Armenia and Iran. Due to closed borders with Armenia, the train line cannot be used to connect the two sections, so travel between them is often via Iran. Relations with Turkey are good although Nakhchivan is situated at the poorer end of that increasingly economically successful country.

Azerbaijan’s capital Baku is famous for being oil-rich which has helped to create wealthy, powerful families that own much of the Caspian’s caviar or other resources. One of the most powerful families is the Aliyev family with the current president being Ilham Aliyev, son of previous president Heydar Aliyev who was former First Secretary of the Azerbaijani Communist Party (1969–82), then a member of the Soviet Union’s Politburo and the KGB, and later USSR Deputy Prime Minister (until 1987).

The political system of Azerbaijan is an authoritarian presidential system and, of the three South Caucasus countries, it is the most behind in terms of democratic reform. It is also known for its poor human rights situation and the incarceration of protesters and the genuine political opposition.

The prime minister is appointed by the president and confirmed by the unicameral (single chamber) National Assembly of Azerbaijan, the Milli Majlis.The parliament has 125 deputies elected via single constituencies. Elections take place but are probably the least ‘free and fair’ of any of the Black Sea countries with the President, for example, receiving more than 85 per cent of the votes in 2008. Originally the constitution said that no president could serve more than two terms but after a referendum, which was not free or fair, this section was deleted. There was also an addition to the constitution emphasizing that in the event of war no election need be held until the war was over. The next presidential election is due in October 2013 and there have been fears amongst some parts of Azerbaijani society that if Aliyev thinks he might not win this election then he could postpone it or even start a war over Nagorno-Karabakh (discussions with various people in 2012).

Freedom House (2013) rates Azerbaijan as having the next to the lowest score for political rights (6) with a 5 for civil liberties. This gives it the worst score, along with Russia, of all the wider Black Sea states.

Despite the above, the stated Foreign Policy priorities of Azerbaijan are to develop a pluralist democracy based on market economy and supremacy of the law; to follow an independent foreign policy for the purposes of the restoration of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan; to overcome risks aimed at security, political independence, sovereignty and the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan; the solution of the Armenian–Azerbaijan conflict of ‘Nagorny Karabakh’; the development of friendly neighbourhood and mutual advantageous relations with bordering states; fortifying security and stability in the region; the prevention of the illegal transportation of weapons and other equipment in the region; devotion to existing global regimes on prevention of the spread of nuclear weapons and the creation in the South Caucasus of a zone free from nuclear weapons; the demilitarisation of the Caspian basin; integration into the structures of European and Transatlantic security and co-operation including NATO, the European Union, the Union of Western Europe and the Council of Europe; expediting the development of different spheres of the economy given the advantage of the important strategic-geographical position of Azerbaijan in the crossroads of the East and the West; and to help to develop the Eurasian transport corridor with the participation of Azerbaijan.1

Azerbaijan has particularly good relations with Turkey and good relations with Georgia. Despite its regime and poor human rights, it seemingly has good relations with much of the West too, partly perhaps due to its oil and gas. With regard to the US in particular, it could also be because of reports that Iran would like to destabilise the secular regime in Baku. Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia and Iran are always tinged with suspicion of the intentions of these two powerful neighbours whose empires once engulfed the region. Although the north of Iran is also populated by Azerbaijanis, Iran is a religious country whilst Azerbaijan is more secular in style and influenced by its Soviet communist heritage.

The regime in Azerbaijan spends much of its oil money on weapons, many of which come from Israel. There are also rumours that Israel wants a ‘staging post’ in Azerbaijan for use against Iran (Perry 2012) and that it already has the use of old Soviet airfields.

Azerbaijan is a member of various organisations including the CoE, BSEC, EU’s Eastern Partnership, OSCE and NATO’s Partnership for Peace. It is hoping to become a member of the WTO but needs to diversify its trade more rather than being primarily an oil state. It is also a CIS member and there is some debate as to whether Russia would be able to side with CSTO member Armenia against a fellow CIS member should there be a war between the two South Caucasus countries.

Nagorno-Karabakh

The history of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan resulting in the present situation regarding Karabakh is long and complicated. According to Broers (2005), early Christians settled in the area of Karabakh naming it Artsakh. Later invasions of the area’s lowlands by Turks and Persians led to Muslims, including Azerbaijanis, also living in the region which was eventually subsumed by the Persian Empire. In 1813, Karabakh and most of Azerbaijan were incorporated into the Russian Empire. By this time it was mostly Armenians who lived in the mountainous parts of Karabakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) apart from around the town of Shusha which was mostly inhabited by Azerbaijanis. The two groups interacted and inter-married. Nevertheless, in 1905 conflict erupted between the Armenians and Azerbaijanis in the town of Shusha. Ten years later expulsions of Armenians from Anatolia at the end of the Ottoman Empire and World War I led to increased numbers of Armenians in Karabakh. Then in 1918, when the Russian Empire collapsed, massacres of both Armenians and Azerbaijanis occurred in this region as well as the continued massacre of Armenians in Turkey. Armenia and Azerbaijan declared their independence but, within four years, both would become part of the USSR’s Transcaucasian Federative Republic along with Georgia. Nagorno-Karabakh became an autonomous region within the Azerbaijani SSR (Soviet Socialist Republic).

After the fall of the USSR, Armenia and Azerbaijan declared their independence. The Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh wanted independence too but this was not granted. War broke out which, after many deaths and the expulsion of Azerbaijanis, resulted in a mostly mono-ethnic Armenian ‘frozen conflict’ zone. The present status is that the international community regards Nagorno-Karabakh as being part of Azerbaijan but it is not accessible to Azerbaijan and indeed the wider region of Karabakh is currently occupied by Armenian forces (see Chapter 4 for more details).

The unrecognised Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh has a presidential system with the president being elected head of both state and government. Bako Sahakyan, formerly the head of security, is currently serving his second term aspresident from 2012 until 2017. He has vowed to obtain full independence for Nagorno-Karabakh using Kosovo as a model (BBC 2012).

The executive power is with the government in the capital city of Stepanakert but the unicameral assembly has some say in the legislature. There is a multiparty system with a number of independents. All Nagorno-Karabakh elections are considered invalid by the international community, which does not recognise the area’s independence. There is some debate as to how free and fair the elections are.

The population of Nagorno-Karabakh is around 145,000 people and Freedom House (2013) gives the region a score of 5 (7 is the lowest) for political rights and 5 for civil liberties.

Bulgaria

Bulgaria is a Black Sea littoral state which became a member of the European Union at the beginning of 2007 despite doubts about whether it was ready due to the levels of corruption in its system. Bulgaria has a parliamentary democracy with a prime minister as head of government and a directly elected president (Rosen Plevneliev in 2013) as head of state. The National Assembly of the Republic of Bulgaria is unicameral. The ruling party after 2009 was GERB (Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria) a centre-right party headed by Prime Minister Borisov. The EU’s committee on organised crime, corruption and money laundering (CRIM) discussed investigating the Bulgarian PM. In 2012 the EU Commission heavily criticised Bulgaria, as well as Romania, in the areas of judicial reform and the fight against both corruption and organised crime. In February 2013 Borisov and his government resigned after street protests against austerity and an interim PM was appointed until the elections in May.

Nevertheless, Freedom House (2011) calls the country ‘free’, giving it a score of 2 (1 is the highest) for both political rights and civil liberties.

As a member of the EU, much of Bulgaria’s foreign policy is that of the Union with Bulgaria believing that EU and NATO membership extend its foreign policy, according to the official website in 2012. Bulgaria is, the website says, particularly concerned with three main geographic areas which are those of the Western Balkans, the Middle East and the Black Sea region. It is also keen to continue its strong relationship with Turkey.

The Graf Ignatievo Air Base is one of the bases that have already been used jointly by Bulgaria and the US as part of ‘Task Force East’. Nevertheless, Bulgaria also has good relations with Russia even though the latter has complained about US air bases and the possibility of Bulgaria hosting part of the US missile defence system.

Bulgaria is a member of the European Union and many other international organisations including BSEC, OSCE, CoE, NATO and the WTO.

Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Georgia

The political system of Georgia is in the process of changing from a presidential democracy to a parliamentary democracy which retains a president as official head of state. Whilst the political system in early 2013 was still officially presidential under President Saakashvili until after the October 2013 presidential elections, the government has been led by Prime Minister Ivanishvili of the Georgian Dream coalition since the crucial parliamentary elections of October 2012. If Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) party had won these elections then the President could have prolonged his power by becoming prime minister. Some observers suspected President Saakashvili of using the same tactics as President Putin in order to retain power, given that the constitutions of both states have limits of two terms for the presidency. However, Georgian ministers told the author in mid 2012 that Saakashvili was very well aware of the situation but could not say before the elections that he would stand down and make himself a ‘lam...