Frontiers of Space Risk

Natural Cosmic Hazards & Societal Challenges

Richard J. Wilman, Christopher J. Newman

• Publisher: CRC Press
• Year: 2018
• ISBN:
  9781351742665
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Physical Sciences
• Subtopic: Astronomy & Astrophysics

CHOICE Recommended Title, March 2019

This book brings together diverse new perspectives on current and emerging themes in space risk, covering both the threats to Earth-based activities arising from space events (natural and man-made), and those inherent in space activity itself. Drawing on the latest research, the opening chapters explore the dangers from asteroids and comets; the impact of space weather on critical technological infrastructure on the ground and in space; and the more uncertain threats posed by rare hazards further afield in the Milky Way.

Contributors from a wide range of disciplines explore the nature of these risks and the appropriate engineering, financial, legal, and policy solutions to mitigate them. The coverage also includes an overview of the space insurance market; engineering and policy perspectives on space debris and the sustainability of the space environment. The discussion then examines the emerging threats from terrorist activity in space, a recognition that space is a domain of war, and the challenges to international cooperation in space governance from the nascent asteroid mining industry.

Features:

• Discusses developments and risks relevant to the public and private sectors as access to the space environment expands
• Offers an interdisciplinary approach blending science, technology, and policy
• Presents a high-level international focus, with contributions from academics, policy makers, and commercial space consultants

Chapter 1

Introduction

Christopher J. Newman and Richard J. Wilman

Contents

1.1Why Space Risks?

1.2Space Risks: Framing the Debate

1.3The Categories of Space Risk

1.4Themes within the Book

1.4.1Natural Risks and Cosmic Hazards

1.4.2Human Risks and Societal Challenges

1.5Conclusions and Opportunities

References

1.1Why Space Risks?

The notion of outer space as being a hostile and threatening environment is one which will be familiar to most people. Popular fiction is replete with tales of the dangers posed to the Earth from space (Roberts 2006). More prosaically, the growth in scientific understanding and human space activity since the start of the space race has led to an increased awareness of the dangers posed by an environment inherently hostile to organic human life. Equally, the conceptualization of space as a frontier has been identified as a dominant metaphor when considering space as a distinct environment (Billings 2004).* It is a metaphor, which works well as an overarching backdrop for the discussion of the risks, presenting both imagery of new possibilities and limitless opportunities while evoking a sense of physical danger and hazards. Such dangers lead to risks which can be both natural and human-made, tangible and invisible, and present challenges where the rule of law or its enforcement may be uncertain.

The aim of this book is to offer an introduction concerning how risks from space permeate and circumscribe humanity’s increasingly diverse interactions with the space environment. This is underpinned by a widely drawn, multidisciplinary perspective, whereby scientific analysis and engineering solutions are discussed alongside the need for regulatory certainty and clarity in policy making. Fundamentally, as human activity in space increases, and our capacity to explore increases, the risks from such activity will also inevitably increase. As collective awareness of these risks increases, analysis and critique of potential solutions becomes ever more necessary to inform policy makers, embolden academics, and reassure the wider population. The immediate aim of the book is, therefore, to identify and discuss a range of risks coming from the space environment which might impact life on earth.

There are several reasons why such a discussion of risks to the Earth from space is of value. First, these risks that we identify herein will provide an alternate lens through which space activity and the study of space can be viewed and this will be of interest to a wide range of readers. Also, by appreciating the risks facing humanity, policy makers, engineers, and space professionals can decide upon the appropriate resource to dedicate to mitigating these risks. In some cases, where the risk is small, this might mean further resources with which to better understand the phenomenon. In other cases where the risk of occurrence is more likely, it might be that the need for capital expenditure on infrastructure is more pressing. Either way, by viewing risks from space holistically, we hope to provide increased awareness and inform public discourse on these areas. As Bostrom and Ćirković (2008) have already noted in respect of risk, “a broader view allows us to gain perspective and can thereby help us to set wiser priorities.”

1.2Space Risks: Framing the Debate

This first chapter will perform several functions. First, as already outlined, it will introduce and explain the value of studying the risks facing humanity from the space environment. In so doing, it is not intended to produce a definitive list of every risk faced by humans. Others have already successfully achieved this in a broader context (see, e.g., Bostrom and Ćirković 2008). Rather, it will reflect upon the nature of risks originating from various sources and how these risks can be categorized. Broadly speaking, these risks are categorized as being either natural cosmic hazards threatening life on Earth or risks that result from human activity in space. In the remainder of this chapter, we will explore these two themes and introduce each of the chapters in turn, to set them within the context of the book as a whole. The chapter will conclude with some final reflections and opportunities for further study.

All of the chapters in the book are written by contributors with a wide range of academic and practical expertise in various aspects of the space environment. Indeed, as can be seen, the contributors to the book are drawn not only from different disciplines, but from different academic traditions and backgrounds. One of the great strengths of such a multidisciplinary approach is the way in which it provides different perspectives on the same problems. Such an approach may lead to different but complementary solutions to the risks posed to humanity on Earth.

Any attempts to delineate between different categories of risks will be inherently arbitrary, nonetheless, there is a need for boundaries to be drawn for the inquiry through which the risks can be viewed and analyzed. It should be noted at the outset that this book purposefully limits itself to the risk to humans on Earth. While there are undoubtedly risks to humans in colonizing other planets and engaging on deep space missions of exploration, these are not likely to be serious ventures for many decades. As such, there are too many variables to make any concrete predictions as to the precise nature of these risks. Similarly, the book will not seek to delve too deeply into the theory of risk management and mitigation. There are numerous excellent specific discussions on this area (Macauley 2005) and consideration is, instead, focused on broader thematic inquiries into identifying the risks from space from a scientific and governance perspective.

1.3The Categories of Space Risk

Having established the initial focus, the book operates from the basic precept that the threats from space to humans on Earth can be broken down into two broadly drawn themes. The first category of risk considered is that which originates from space and threatens all life on Earth. This encompasses the natural hazards arising from our cosmic habitat within the Solar System and the wider Milky Way Galaxy. These risks can be categorized as being naturally occurring (in so far as they are not the product of human activity) although they have the potential to impact both our natural environment and the critical national and global technological infrastructures upon which much of the fabric of the global society depends.

Such dangers are, of course, not limited to those posed by nature. The second broad area of risk comes, therefore, from human activity in space and the societal challenges such activity poses. This theme will encompass technological malfunctions and accidents affecting space hardware and infrastructure. This includes collisions in space due to the proliferation of orbital debris. Risks also stem from the deliberate misuse of space-based assets for the purposes of terrorism or state-based aggression. Such human activity requires an understanding of the attendant risks, and an appropriate mixture of engineering, financial, law, and policy solutions to mitigate them where possible or to maximize resilience.

As stated in Section 1.2 above, we are not primarily interested in technical, practice-based definitions of risk as they might apply to specific industries. We are not seeking to identify the risks purely in terms of scope (the number of those affected) and intensity (the impact of any risk). It is true that should some of the risks identified in the book come to pass then they will undoubtedly prove to be extinction events for life on Earth. Similarly, we are not interested in the precise quantification of risks, in the sense of identifying only those that fall within a certain range of probability; indeed, some of the risks identified may be considered highly likely, while for others the probability of occurrence is so small as to be negligible on timescales of human interest. All of these would provide unnecessary limitations on what is intended to be an exploration of a wide range of ideas.

1.4Themes within the Book

As stated above, we did not impose a series of preconceived limitations based around qualitative categories of risk for authors to follow. Rather, we allowed those with the expertise in specific areas to identify the areas of risk and explore them independently, allowing each discrete chapter to reflect the vibrancy of contemporary research in that area. We have codified the contributions to this edited collection under the two broad themes of (1) natural risks, cosmic hazards and (2) human risks and societal challenges. In this section, we will highlight the key contributions and contents of each chapter within each theme.

1.4.1Natural Risks and Cosmic Hazards

The start of the discussion on hazards emanating from the cosmic environment begins by considering the risk from asteroids and comets. It is this risk with which humanity arguably has the longest and deepest association, at least on a cultural level. There is now a widespread public awareness of this hazard, perhaps due to the “impact” in the popular consciousness of the global mass extinction event that led to the demise of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. More recently, a notable historical impact event occurred at Tunguska, Siberia, on June 30, 1908, in which the explosion of a ∼100-meter-sized asteroid or cometary nucleus flattened some 2000 square kilometers of remote forest. The event is often cited as the benchmark for an impact with the capability to destroy a large metropolitan area, and is marked annually by the Asteroid Day global awareness campaign.* The threat was vividly demonstrated as recently as 2013 in the Russian city of Chelyabinsk, when the explosive atmospheric disintegration of a ∼20-meter asteroid caused extensive property damage and personal injury, mainly due to flying glass shattered by the blast wave.

The spectacular appearance of bright comets has transfixed societies for millennia; our forebears considered them as harbingers of doom. The creation of artifacts from ancient and prehistoric civilizations, including some rock art and megalithic monuments, have been directly linked to episodes of elevated cometary activity (see e.g., Sweatman and Tsikritsis 2017), suggesting—as we have only recently begun to appreciate from astrophysical studies—that activity within the Solar System can evolve on relatively short timescales (see e.g., Napier 2010).

In Chapter 2, Mark Bailey provides a contemporary analysis of the astronomical understanding of the asteroid and cometary populations of the Solar System and the impact hazard they pose. He traces the growth in our knowledge of these Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), including basic observational p...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Contents
• Acknowledgments
• Editors
• Contributors
• Chapter 1: Introduction
• Chapter 2: Asteroid and Cometary Impact Hazards
• Chapter 3: Space Weather: The Sun as a Natural Hazard
• Chapter 4: Hazards and Habitability: Galactic Perspectives
• Chapter 5: Space Debris: Risk and Mitigation
• Chapter 6: Commercial Space Risks, Spacecraft Insurance, and the Fragile Frontier
• Chapter 7: Space Sustainability
• Chapter 8: Space Activity and the Nascent Risk of Terrorism
• Chapter 9: Reconciling the Past, Present, and Future of National Security, Military Activity, and Space Law
• Chapter 10: Managing the Resource Revolution: Space Law in the New Space Age
• Index