China's Belt And Road Initiatives And Its Neighboring Diplomacy

Mengqi Xu, Jie Zhang

• Verlag: WSPC
• Jahr: 2016
• ISBN:
  9789813140226
• Thema: Politics & International Relations
• Thema: Geopolitics

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This book studies China's Belt and Road Initiatives and the country's neighboring diplomacy. The Belt and Road Initiatives proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 consist of two main components, the land-based "Silk Road Economic Belt" and ocean-going "Maritime Silk Road". China has implemented the initiatives by establishing Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund. This book focuses on analysis of the initiatives and the responses from the major powers, neighboring countries and regions.

The book consists of four parts: the Overview; The Belt and Road Initiatives and Big Powers; The Belt and Road Initiative and Regions; The Belt and Road Initiative and Hot Issues. The Overview explicates the strategic orientations, connotations and approaches of implementation of the initiatives from a theoretical perspective. The second part analyzes the Asia-Pacific strategies of four great powers, namely the United States, Russia, Japan and India, their relations with China and responses to the initiative. The third part discusses the Belt and Road Initiatives and four regions, namely Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia. It evaluates their attitudes and responses towards the Belt and Road Initiatives, strategic docking and major challenges in this regard. The fourth part touches upon the initiatives and current hot issues including non-traditional security, the South China Sea dispute, and venture analysis on investment environment renovation.

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Editor Jie Zhang 0China, Belt and Road Initiatives, Security, Strategy, Neighboring Diplomacy, South China Sea

• The first English book on China's Belt and Road Initiatives and its neighboring diplomacy
• Provides panoramic and in-depth analysis of the initiatives and China's relations with major powers, neighboring countries and regions

The Belt and Road Initiative and Regions

Chapter 7

Situations in Northeast Asia and the Belt and Road Initiative

Piao Jianyi

National Institute of International Strategy
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
[email protected]

The eminent shifts in economic strength of Northeast Asian countries in 2014 indicate the trend of big power relations within this region, along with which subtle changes occur to the central issues that beset the region. As to the Belt and Road Initiative, governments in Northeast Asia give a response in different but clear ways.

By Northeast Asian region, it refers to the region covered by bulk of eastern part of the Chinese mainland, Taiwan of China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan, Transbaikalia and the Far East of Russia, and the eastern part of Mongolia.¹ The economic and political patterns internationally of this region keep altering in a subtle fashion. For instance, the US, who takes a “return to Asia” move, China, Japan, and Russia are continuously adjusting themselves to a new type of big power relation by virtue of handling with bilateral and multilateral problems. Focuses like situations across the Taiwan Straits, of the Korean Peninsula, and of Mongolia present delicate variations and a tendency of interaction. Besides, the situations of Northeast Asia become more and more impressionable to that of adjacent Central Asia and Southeast Asia and even of the world. Compared to other regions, Northeast Asia demonstrates a stronger response to China’s ideas of the Road and Belt in their own ways.

1.A Turning-Point Alteration to Economic Strength

In 2014, Northeast Asian countries start to implement their new domestic and foreign policies which were brought forth in 2012 when they successively had their heads changed and governments shuffled and were tested, adjusted and enriched in 2013. The year 2014 is also a year that witnesses the sensational and significant turns in the pattern of their economic strength since the end of Cold War.

Generally speaking, we can compare the economic power of two nations by their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, the GDP of one specific year cannot show the whole picture of a country’s economic strength but merely the wealth created within its jurisdiction in that year. Only by aggregating the GDP of all years in a quite long period can the economic power of a country or region be properly depicted. In other words, a country’s economic strength should be described by the GDP sum of a period in an “integral” way, instead of by the GDP per year in a “differential” manner. The longer the period, the closer the result will be to the fact. For this reason, the author explains how economic powers of the Northeast Asia and the USA have changed after the Cold War through aggregating their GDP from 1992 to 2014.

In reference to the predictions made by the World Bank in November 2014, the GDPs of Northeast Asian countries and the USA in 2014 are expected to lift by 0.4–15% compared to 2013. Specifically, the GDP of Chinese mainland will rise by 7.4%, Hong Kong of China by 2.2%, Macau of China by 10%, Taiwan of China by 3.44%, South Korea by 4%, Japan by 0.4%, Russia by 0.5%, Mongolia by 15%, and the US by 2.2%.² Accordingly, the predicted GDP values of these countries in 2014 can be calculated based on the statistics of 2013 and added to the following Table 1.

Table 1: GDPs of Northeast Asian countries (Regions) and the USA in post cold war period

Note that firstly China includes Hong Kong and Macau and North Korea has not right to release the statistics, and secondly, as statistics in 2014 are predicted values, Σ 92–14, Σ /Σ Japan 92–14, Σ /Σ USA 92–14 are all estimated.
Source of statistics: http://www.worldbank.org.cn.

The upper part of the table shows GDPs of Northeast Asian countries and the US from 1991 to 2014. The data of 1991 is the base year data serving for comparison with years after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Cold War. The ∑ 92–14 in the bottom part of the table is the aggregation of GDPs of each country from 1992 to 2014. The ∑/∑ Japan 92–14, described in the form of percentage, is the ratio of ∑ 92–14 to the sum of Japan’s GDPs within the same time frame. Likewise, ∑/∑ US 92–14 represents the ratio of ∑ 92–14 to America’s GDPs of the US in total from 1992 to 2014.

By analyzing the table, the following conclusions are reached which are of significance to observe the situations in Northeast Asia.

To begin with, in the 1991 when the Cold War came to a close, the Northeast countries are ranked in the high to low order of Japan, Russia, China, South Korea, Taiwan of China, North Korea, and Mongolia as far as GDP is concerned. The GDP of Japan was preponderant, being approximately 240% of the total of all other Northeast Asian countries.

Secondly, there has been four times of changes in the GDP rank from 1992 to 2014. In 1992, China superseded Russia to be the second right next to Japan while Russia became the third. In 1994, Russia was exceeded by South Korea, falling off to the forth. In 2006, Russia retook its third place by out-competing South Korea. In 2009, China rose to the top, followed by Japan.

Thirdly, the order by GDP has remained the same for six years since 2009, which is China, Japan, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan of China, North Korea, and Mongolia. In 2014, China gains a GDP that is 116% of the aggregation of all other nations in the region, but still far from the 240% that Japan achieved in the last year of the Cold War. Nevertheless, China’s GDP is 2.1 times of Japan’s, 4.9 times of Russia’s, 7.6 times of South Korea’s, 21.3 times of Taiwan’s, and 59.8% of America’s. Thereinto, China’s GDP reaching more than twice as much as Japan’s and approaching 60% of America’s are remarkable changes of transformational meaning.

Nonetheless, the order by cumulative GDP values from 1992 to 2014, which is more accurately reflect the economic strength of each nation, is Japan, China, Russia, South Korea, Taiwan of China, North Korea, and Mongolia. The cumulative GDP of Japan is 1.4 times of China’s, 5.2 times of Russia’s, 6.3 times of South Korea’s, and 13.6 times of Taiwan’s. In view of this, Japan is still considered as the most economically powerful country in Northeast Asia. As for China, its cumulative GDP reached 3.7 times of Russia’s, 4.5 times of South Korea, and 9.7 times of Taiwan. Moreover, the cumulative GDP achieved 71.7% of Japan’s and 29.3% of America’s, being another stunning advancement.

Fifthly, the ratio of America’s cumulative GDP to those of Northeast Asian countries other than Japan has been decreasing year by year since 1992. Compared to that by 2013, the ratio of America’s cumulative GDP to Japan remains to be 2.4 in 2014; however it reduces from 3.7 to 3.4 to China, from 13.2 to 12.7 to Russia, from 15.7 to 15.4 to South Korea, and from 117% to 114% to the aggregation of the cumulative GDP of the whole Northeast Asia. This suggests that it seems unrealistic for any Northeast Asian country to create a sudden change to the regional order elaborately established by the US after the Second World War in the foreseeable future, although there is a tendency that the aggregation of cumulative GDP of nations in the region and the cumulative GDP of the US become equivalent one year after another, which is also a significant change.

Besides, South Korea believes that its comparative edge in economy, compared to North Korea, has been greatly lifted since 1992.³ However, the rank of South Korea as far as the GDP each year is concerned has retrogressed to that before 1994 since 2006. And in light of the cumulative GDP from 1992 to 2014, South Korea is lagged further behind by China and Russia despite that its gap between Japan is bridged.

Lastly, North Korea and Mongolia have not seen their positions changed in terms of their GDP and cumulative GDP values from 1992 to 2014. However, the 21^st Century witnessed remarkably increasing economy for both countries. As to North Korea, its economy, after a rally in 1998, returned onto a stable path of revival and development in 2002. Mongolia walked out of its first post-Cold War decade of wandering and entered into a fast development stage in the 21^st Century.

2.The Evolvement of Big Power Relations and Regional Hot Issues

As what is described above, the most striking and significant changes in 2014 are China’s GDP in 2014 exceeding Japan’s twice and approaching 60% of the USA’s, China’s cumulative GDP from 1992 to 2014 surpassing Japan’s 70% and reaching 30% of the USA’s, and the sum of the cumulative GDP of Northeast Asian countries and regions from 1992 to 2014 being equal to the America’s cumulative GDP. These changes are helpful for comprehending the evolvement of relationship between major Northeast Asian countries and hot regional topics in 2014 for the reason that economic power has become fundamental elements in measuring total strength and competitiveness of countries after the Cold War and ensuring comprehensive safety interests of a nation.

Although it is not an exact reflection of economic comparison of China with Japan and the USA, China’s GDP reaching more than twice of Japan’s and almost 60% of the USA’s is of pressing affect and of symbolic significance to the three nations. Nevertheless, it is of practical implementation for China’s cumulative GDP to surpass 70% of Japan’s and to get close to 30% of the USA’s. It means that, with the present economic growth rates in China, Japan and the USA, China will catch up with Japan by 2019 and with the USA by 2047. The total amount of cumulative GDP of Northeast Asian countries and regions from 1992 to 2014 is getting closer to the cumulative GDP of the USA, casting more light on key issues where the USA is involved in Northeast Asia.

In a nutshell, objectively speaking, these three changes are playing important although different roles in the evolvement of major power relations and hot issues in Northeast Asia in 2014 no matter whether they are acknowledged subjectively by all nations in that region, especially by major countries and the USA.

2.1.Trends in major power relations

These three changes directly exert influence on Japan, who is still the second largest economic power around the world but with the most unpleasant conditions among Northeast Asian countries. On the one hand, the ratio of China’s GDP to Japan’s climbed up from 188.5% in 2013 to 208.5% in 2014. Although it doesn’t demonstrate that China has its economic power surpass Japan’s, it do gives a great shock to the psychological limit of the latter for it has been making light of China and other Asian countries. The ratio of China’s cumulative GDP to Japan’s rose from 65.1% in 2013 to 71.7% in 2014. In this case, Japan, like the USA who had to take steps when the Soviet Union’s GNP reached beyond its 70%, was repelled to think how to deal with China. On the other hand, the ratio of China’s GDP to the USA’s climbed up from 55% in 2013 to 59.8% in 2014 and the ratio of its cumulative GDP to the USA’s increased from 27.1% in 2013 to 29.3% in 2014. Those give a hint to Japan that China is rising up while the USA is suffering a decline of its power. Therefore, it is necessary for Japan to think over its strategies in dealing with its relations with China and the USA against the background of not only Northeast Asia, but beyond in Asia and Pacific region and even the whole world.

Therefore, it seems that Japan, who has a record of military aggression into China and Asian countries and difficulty in becoming a political and military superpower under the constraint of the United States, has set its strategic focuses on China nearby, the USA afar, and Russia with tactics. With regard to China, the long latent dispute over the sovereignty of Diaoyu Islands and the delineation of the territorial sea of the East China Sea were used by Japanese government to stir up peace with China and even aggravate contradictions. By doing this, Japan tries to divert China’s manpower and material and financial resources from its economic construction to fighting against Japan. Moreover, taking as an excuse that China might respond militarily to Japan with its rising military power and opaque amount and use of military expenditure, Japan is speeding up the pace of upgrading to a military power.

In the case of the US, since Japan knows well that the US is growingly worried about and eager to hold back China’s process of rising up, it strengthens its alliance with the US by co-developing military technologies and improving joint military command system. Moreover, taking lifting the ban on collective self-defense as a breakthrough, Japan modifies the pacifist constitution in a fundamental manner in order to become familiar with and master the operation of military technology and military command system of the US as soon as possible and thus eventually get free from the manacle set by the US. At the same time, Japan denies and beautifies its history of being once an invader in Asian countries including China by paying homage to the Yasukuni Shrine and negating its atrocities in the Nanjing Massacre and the recruitment of “comfort women” so that it can make preparation to completely get rid of the postwar system in aspects of morality and international justice.

Japan cast as bait the mass economic cooperative proposals for Russia’s strategic development in its outer Baikal and Far East, winning over Russia. Japan solves the protracted dispute over territory and delimitation of the maritime boundaries between Japan and Russia in the Four Northern Islands (South Kuril Islands), thereby strengthening the strategic partnership between the two countries and undermining China–Russia strategic and cooperative partnership to drift them apart and to offset their growing mutual trust. At the same time, the increasingly close relations with Russia embolden Japan to force the United States to compromise and to gradually lift bans and restrictions on Japan.

However, the major power relations in Northeast Asia in 2014 did not go as Japan wished. China, growing more and more confident in its future, continued to cast high pressure over perverse actions of Abe’s government. As to safeguarding its sovereignty over Diaoyu Islands and the East China Sea, China had its military force patrol in the sea areas of and air areas over the two regions on a regular basis in a moderate manner instead of making escalation regarding the issues. As regard to Abe and Japanese cabinet members and political figures visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, Japan’s denial of its aggression into China and other Asian countries, its wrong doings in the Nanking Massacre and recruiting comfort women during the war, and its attempts to revise the pacifist constitution in order to become a military big power, China responded firmly by condemning both in speech and writing and freezing its contacts and dialogues with Japanese officials of all levels including the senior ones to urge Japan to acknowledge and repent its aggressive records true-heartedly and to resume a way of peaceful development.

At the same time, in order to unite Asian countries who have suffered Japanese aggression and international forces for good in deterring the reactionary behaviors of Abe’s government, China is applying a series of unprecedentedly positive measures through bilateral channels and on international arenas like the US Despite that China and Japan reached four point consensuses accompanied by a summit meeting between both countries at the APEC S...

Inhaltsverzeichnis

• Cover Page
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• About the Editor-in-Chief
• About the Translator
• Preface
• Introduction
• Overview
• The Belt and Road Initiative and Big Powers
• The Belt and Road Initiative and Regions
• The Belt and Road Initiative and Hot Issues
• Index