Population in China

Nancy E. Riley

• Editorial: Polity
• Año: 2016
• ISBN:
  9780745688671
• Edición: 1
• Categoría: Ciencias sociales
• Categoría: Demografía

China is home to a fifth of the worlds inhabitants. For the last several decades, this huge population has been in flux: fertility has fallen sharply, mortality has declined, and massive rural-to-urban migration is taking place. The state has played a direct role in these changes, seeing population control as an important part of its intention to modernize the country. In this insightful new work, Nancy E. Riley argues that Chinas population policies and outcomes are not simply imposed by the state onto an unresponsive citizenry, but have arisen from the social organization of China over the past sixty years. Riley demonstrates how Chinas population and population policy are intertwined and interact with other social and economic features. Riley also examines the unintended consequences of state directives, including the extraordinary number of missing girls, the rapid aging of the population, and an increase in inequality, particularly between rural and urban residents. Ultimately, Chinas demographic story has to be understood as a complex, multi-pieced phenomenon. This book will be essential reading for researchers and students of China and social demography, as well as non-specialists interested in the changing nature of Chinas population.

1
Introduction

When someone in China asks me what kind of research I do, and I respond that I am interested in issues of population in China, I often get what seems to be an inevitable response: “Good thing you are studying China! China's population is huge, we have lots of people here, it's a great place to study population!” From this perspective, the sheer size makes China's population a worthwhile course of study. In other places, particularly outside of China, when I am asked a similar question about my work, a common response is: “China! Population?! Well, yes, that must be interesting, with what the government has done, restricting people from having children.” Here, it is the role of the government that makes China's population so important to study. These two features – size and government involvement – are key to any study of China's population. Because a fifth of the world's population lives in China, China's population size affects the world's population in significant ways; China's population is larger than the combined populations of North America, South America, Western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand. And the Chinese state has played an explicit and sometimes heavy-handed role in shaping China's population; that aspect of demography in China – understanding the role of the state and the reasons for and consequences of such state involvement – is also interesting and important.

In this volume, I will be exploring these and many other elements of China's population. The size of the population and the weight that population has on the world make it imperative that we understand China's recent and contemporary population issues. In many ways, the changes that have occurred in China are similar to those in other countries. China's population is aging rapidly, for example, as are the populations of other countries, such as the United States, Germany, and China's neighbor, Japan. China is facing health challenges that are similar to those seen in many, mostly wealthier, countries, such as heart disease. China is experiencing high levels of internal migration, but other countries across the world have internal migration rates that are similar or even greater than China's; as is true in China, this migration has presented challenges, such as how to best accommodate newcomers to cities. It is important to keep in mind these and other similarities between China and other societies so that we don't mistakenly make China seem to be unlike all other places, in either positive or negative ways.

But even as China has some similarities with other societies, there are also important differences that we should recognize. China's mortality and fertility both underwent rapid and extensive declines, some of the most rapid declines ever seen in a large population. The speed and extent of the declines were particularly notable because at the time, China was still a poor country; such rapid declines are most often seen in countries that have industrialized and which have more resources than did China. And while rural to urban migration is a factor in many societies, in China, that migration is particularly shaped by explicit government policies that limit the ability of migrants to succeed in the city.

Indeed, when we look at those changes in fertility, mortality, and migration, and try to understand the causes and consequences of them, inevitably our attention must turn to the state. The Chinese state has taken an interest and direct role in changing population outcomes to an extent that is not found in many other places. The state's role may be most noticed and discussed in the area of fertility. But as we will see, the Chinese state has been just as active in the areas of mortality and public health and in migration. State intervention in all areas of population has been influential, but other factors – changing economy, political upheavals, and social stability, to name a few – have also played significant roles in population outcomes. We need also keep in mind that the state is in fact involved in shaping population outcomes in most countries; sometimes that intervention is direct, such as prohibiting abortion (shaping fertility outcomes) or requiring vaccination against childhood diseases (which influences mortality and morbidity rates). Even more often, state involvement is indirect, and might involve how different levels of property taxes or support of public schools shape migration within borders or even to other societies. Or how public support of preschools or parental leaves from the labor force influence families in their decisions about whether to have children, when to do so, and how many children they want. Along with its direct interventions, the Chinese state has also influenced population outcomes in indirect ways; for example, we will see that different levels of state support of rural and urban areas over the past decades has been a key influence in migration today.

Thus, there are many facets to China's past and current population experience, and this volume will draw attention to some of the key pieces and players. Those acquaintances who have spoken to me about why it is a good thing to study and understand China's population were certainly right. The state's involvement is unusual, but also not always understood by many who hear only part of China's population story. China's enormous population size also makes it important to understand its dynamics. The language used by the mass media in the West makes it clear that there are times when size is not simply interesting, but worrisome: China was labeled as the world's first “demographic billionaire,” with the positive and negative connotations – success and threat – that such a term implies. That mixed message reflects the way China is both feared and admired more generally. It is also the lens through which China's population and its policies have sometimes been understood and assessed.

But whatever initial reaction someone has to China's population, population dynamics are an important part of any society, including China. Understanding where China is now or where it is going requires understanding its demographic history and the complexities of its current situation.

The Importance of Demographic Change

While the study of demography at one level focuses on specific processes – migration, fertility, and mortality most traditionally – these processes also involve making connections across economic, political, social, and other areas. One branch of demography focuses strictly on measuring those processes, giving us information about how many births took place this year in a particular population, or counting the number of people who have moved from one place to another. But most scholars who study demography and most policy makers who use demography are interested in what is sometimes called “social demography,” looking to go well beyond those numbers to interpret and understand them. Few would argue that demography is destiny; the context of any demographic event or change is as important as the event or change itself, influencing the meaning and outcome of any demographic event. For example, low fertility is occurring in many countries across the world, with women having fewer than two children, thus below replacement level (the number of births a population needs to continue its current size over time). Whether that is seen as good or bad – for the family, the country, or the world – will depend on the context of that low fertility. For some, low fertility may mean more resources for the children who are born, giving families a better standard of living because they have smaller families to support. But it also might be interpreted negatively, because as those children grow up, there will be fewer workers to power the economy and support those who are not working, such as children or elderly. Similarly, while it is important to know how many people are migrating from one place to another, how to interpret that migration is often under debate. As I write this, thousands of migrants are fleeing Syria and trying to make their way into European countries; the media is full of debates about what this migration means – to Syria, to potential receiving countries, but also to migrants themselves. These Syrians are escaping a war-ravaged country, but they face future challenges too, as they try to start anew in a new place. Will these migrants be a benefit to or a drain on the receiving countries? Disagreement on this issue is widespread.

Those who study population are also interested in what causes population changes. Why do the fertility levels of a population decline or rise? Raising children is expensive. Does fertility fall because of the inherent difficulties of finding the resources needed to raise many children? Or do parents now believe that more resources are needed to raise a child properly? How do expectations about gender and men's and women's roles inside and outside the family factor into those decisions about children? We know that population shifts are intimately and deeply tied to changes in other areas of society, to the social, economic, and political landscapes. These connections move in both directions; population changes can effect social change but as often are themselves affected by other social change. Thus, parents’ decision to have fewer children may come from a woman's decision (or need) to be actively engaged in the labor force and a recognition that her work will not permit raising more than one or two children. On the other hand, if women want only one or two children, and have access to the means to do so – through family planning, for example – that may permit them to develop job skills and allow them to be more involved in the labor force. These kinds of interactions happen at this individual level but also at the societal level. For example, as Japan faces an increasing number of elderly people in its population, there is more focus on how Japan's low fertility has contributed to the challenges facing its aging population, challenges that are felt by individuals, families, and the nation as a whole. Should the government intervene and, if so, how? Government support might involve building new elderly housing and assisted living facilities, which might help to ease the burden on families struggling to care for elderly family members. But another route to changing the country's demographic profile is to make it easier for families (and particularly women) to bear and raise more children. The provision of child care might allow women to balance work and family responsibilities more easily; tax breaks might make children more affordable. In any society, fertility rates are significant at societal, family, and individual levels, with the issues at each level deeply integrated with those at the other levels. Thus, we are mindful of how society and population shape one another in all places. Even population policy is not simply an independent nor a dependent force in any situation. It is intertwined with, and interacts with, a number of other social, economic, and political features of any society.

Demographic Change in China

As is true in all other societies, China's population experience has to be understood as a complex, multi-pieced phenomenon, part of the larger social, economic, and political context. China's population policy has arisen from the Chinese society of the time. In this volume, we will see how the policies that have been so important in Chinese society and, at times, important in how the world views China, are best understood in a particular context. Demographic changes have occurred amidst other widespread social changes (especially the economic changes that have impacted most aspects of Chinese life).

Making sense of China's population requires taking account of several key features. Because of its very large size, whatever changes happen in that single population affects many other societies across the globe. Because of the intricate connections between economy, society, and population, when China's population changes in some way – there are more or fewer people there than there were a decade ago, or there are increasingly large numbers of elderly – those changes not only affect the balance of people and resources in the world, but they can also impact the smallest of the world's economies or even ones that seem only distantly related to China's.

A second feature of China's population history is the speed with which some aspects have changed, and under what conditions. The country has experienced significant changes in mortality, fertility, and in migration, and all of those changes have happened at near-record speed. Particularly fast has been the decline in fertility; we will see that that speed itself has had, and will have, implications beyond the actual change in fertility China has experienced. The speed of mortality decline and migration has also been rapid. That the changes in all of these processes – mortality, migration, and fertility – occurred even while China was still a poor country is also intriguing and worth attention.

The timing and speed of demographic change necessarily brings us to the third important facet of China's population history, the role of the government. As mentioned above, governments are often involved in shaping population, both implicitly and explicitly. But state involvement in China has been very significant and very explicit. Understanding that involvement allows us lessons in these processes and under what conditions governments can step in to shape demographic change; how successful it has been – or not – gives us further insight into these processes. The Chinese state's role in fertility change has garnered the most attention, but the state's role in public health and migration has been equally revealing and influential. At various times, the Chinese state has taken strong stances on issues of health and mortality, and we have often seen statistics on deaths, illnesses, and public health respond immediately. We can also see the state's power in its ability to control movement within China over several decades. But as powerful as the state has been in all demographic processes and changes that have taken place in China over the last several decades, it is certainly not the only player, and migration provides evidence for that: now that people are moving in vast numbers, we can also see how individuals and families use migration to further their own goals.

Thus, this volume will be examining China's population policy as part of Chinese society. For example, to outsiders, these policies can seem heavy handed. Indeed, we will see that there have been times and places when that seems abundantly evident. But when we assess those policies as part of the heavy state involvement in most aspects of social and economic life in China, including some of the most intimate aspects of the lives of its citizens, China's population program can be better understood as part of a particular historical moment and political vision. In addition, there are major differences between social organization in China and most Western countries. In China, most believe that population control is within the purview of the state; this is one of the reasons that's China's population policies are not referred to as “family planning” policies but “birth planning” policies. “Family planning” suggests that families decide about how many children to have and when to have them. But in China, the state has been focused on planning the population of the country, in ways that are similar to how it has planned the economy, and has used birth planning policies to do so. There was generally shared agreement on the state role in China; from that perspective, the birth policies were not a new or foreign way of state interaction in the daily lives of its people, but part of the larger way of how the government operated, one in which the state has worked to shape nearly every aspect of society, economy, and politics. Even so, it does not necessarily follow that there was not disagreement and resistance to the birth planning policies and goals, and recognizing that resistance is also part of the overall picture of population experience in China.

Understanding that the Chinese state leaders believed they needed to plan population growth and movement as they did the economy allows us to see that China's population policies are not simply oppressive policies imposed by a state onto an unresponsive citizenry, though there is a strong narrative along that line within the mass media and some scholarly writings. Rather, population goals and policies arose at a time in the country's history when Chinese leaders were striving to “modernize” the country; the belief in modernization and the desire of China's leaders to become modern were very much part of the development of population policy (Greenhalgh 2010). To Chinese leaders, modernization...

Índice

• Cover
• Table of Contents
• Series page
• Title page
• Copyright page
• Figures and Tables
• Map
• Chronology
• Acknowledgments
• Dedication
• 1: Introduction
• 2: China's Recent Demographic History
• 3: Controlling Fertility Through Birth Planning Policies
• 4: Mobility and Its Control
• 5: Public Health, Morbidity, and Mortality
• 6: Gender and Population Dynamics
• 7: Demographic Changes and the Family
• 8: Conclusion: A Look into the Future
• References
• Index
• End User License Agreement