Population Dilemmas in the Middle East

Gad G. Gilbar

• Editorial: Routledge
• Año: 2012
• ISBN:
  9781136308208
• Edición: 1
• Categoría: History
• Categoría: Middle Eastern History

This study provides a general outline of Palestinian population growth between 1948 and 1987 and then focuses on the town of Nablus for a detailed analysis of the main aspects of Palestinian migration and high rates of natural increase. The author shows how the recession that struck the Arab oil economies in the early 1980s, by slowing down the migratory movement, shut off the valve that had afforded the Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza relief from economic pressures.

1
Population Growth and Migration: The Palestinian Communities, 1949–87

Introduction

One of the major consequences of the 1948 war was the demographic displacement thrust upon the Palestinian population in the territory that had made up Mandatory Palestine. By the end of 1948 approximately half of them had abandoned their homes, whether of their own accord or as a result of actions by Jewish forces. The figures for refugees and their whereabouts at the war's end, however, are all estimates, only a few of which are based on information originating in the refugee camps.¹ There are no well-founded data on the Palestinian dispersion at the beginning of 1949, and it is doubtful if such data can ever be compiled. The most reasonable estimate is that 630,000-670,000 people left their homes during 1948. Of these, about 360,000-380,000 moved to the West Bank and Gaza Strip and about 240,000 crossed into the three neighboring Arab states of Lebanon, Transjordan and Syria (see table 1.1).

In 1949, after the war had ended and the last of the armistice agreements had been signed, the Palestinian population (permanent inhabitants and refugees) numbered about 1.316 million people, scattered over six areas or states. The largest concentration, about 670,000, was in the West Bank, accounting for about half of the total Palestinian population that year. The second largest concentration, about 240,000, was in the Gaza Strip, and the third, some 146,000, remained in the State of Israel. Thus, in 1949 about 80 percent of the total Palestinian population (over one million people) lived within the formen boundaries of Mandatory Palestine. The next three largest concentrations were located in neighboring Arab states: Lebanon — about 100,000; Transjordan — 70,000-80,000; and Syria — about 70,000 (see table 1.1). A few thousand Palestinians went to other Arab countries, primarily Egypt and Iraq.² Notably, the Palestinians who crossed into Transjordan in 1949 constituted only about 5 percent of the total Palestinian population, and no more than about 18 percent of the total population of Transjordan.³

Two demographic trends within the Palestinian population stood out during the course of the 39 years from the end of the war in 1949 until the onset of the Intifada at the end of 1987. The first was continued rapid population growth in both absolute and relative terms. While high rates of natural increase characterized the Palestinian Arab population in the Mandate period, these rates were unprecedentedly high during the period under study, and in comparison with other Islamic societies in the Middle East as well. The second trend, essentially a result of

Figure 1.1 The Palestinians: population estimates by place of residence 1949 and 1987
Source: table 1.1

the demographic, economic and political changes of 1948-49, was the movement of the Palestinian population from one region to another, or from one Arab state to another, especially from the West Bank to states east of the Jordan River.

A detailed discussion of these two trends is not possible, because none of the states with a substantial Palestinian population, with the exception of Israel, has systematically collected demographic data for that community during the entire period. From the 1967 war onward, the populations in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip were covered by a separate Israeli statistical survey initiated in September 1967 by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). At that time, the CBS conducted a census in the territories and has since been publishing demographic data on a wide range of subjects, including rate of natural increase, balance of migration, and distribution of the population by sex, age and education.⁴ The CBS data on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are considered reliable and are used, generally without reservation, by Israeli and Palestinian experts alike (including the authors of Palestine Liberation Organization [PLO] statistical publications),⁵ as well as other researchers. Nevertheless, there are indications that the 1967 census suffered from undercounting.⁶ Inasmuch as there has been no other census since 1967, these errors have not been corrected and have influenced all estimates extrapolated from them.

Regarding the other Palestinian communities, including the major ones in Jordan and Lebanon, there has been no comprehensive or consistent collection of data for political reasons, and researchers must make do with estimates (usually rough) and educated guesses. Clearly, in such circumstances, considerations unrelated to academic research may have been at work shifting figures up or down to serve vested interests. It must be emphasized, therefore, that regarding aggregate data on the Palestinian population through the end of 1987, including communities in Arab states, only estimates are available, which for all the close examination and scrutiny they may undergo, remain only that.

Natural Increase

On the basis of existing estimates, it would appear that at the end of 1987 the total Palestinian population was about 4.6 million. According to this estimate, the Palestinian population increased by 256 percent (from 1.294 million at the end of 1947 to 4.602 million at the end of 1987), representing an average annual growth rate of 3.2 percent.⁷ This rate of growth was substantially higher than growth rates during the first half of the century (see table 1.2). Hence, while in the four decades prior to the 1948 war the Palestinian population grew by 750,000-800,000, in the four decades following it the population grew by 3.3 million.

The rise in the natural increase rates, and their sustained high level, account for the growth of the Palestinian population. However, complete data on natural increase rates throughout the period under study are available only for the Palestinian Arab population in Israel. These rates were constant at about 30 per thousand during the first half of the 1940s and then climbed during the next twenty years, peaking at an average annual growth rate of 43.5 per thousand in 1961-65. Since then there has been a clear downward trend, with a drop to 29 per thousand in 1984-87.⁸

The natural increase rates of the Arab population in Israel during the period under review are high even in comparison with other Middle Eastern Islamic societies. Table 1.3 provides data on natural increase rates during the period 1960-80 in six states (Turkey, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Jordan) for which reasonably reliable figures are available (albeit within fairly wide margins). The data show the extent to which natural increase

rates of the Arabs in Israel exceeded those of neighboring Islamic societies, a situation that was especially pronounced in the 1960s.

These data do not, however, show the significant difference in natural increase rates between the two Arab communities in Israel, Muslim and Christian. The natural increase rates of the Muslim population continued to rise until the mid-1960s, with a downward trend appearing only toward the end of the decade, while they declined in the Christian Arab population beginning in the early 1950s and possibly before, a trend that persisted until the mid-1980s. The rise in growth rates within the Muslim community during the first part of the period under study was particularly sharp (see table 1.4), resulting in a wide gap in natural increase rates between the two communities. At its peak during certain years in the 1960s and 1970s, this gap reached 23 per thousand, and accounts for the considerable shift in the numerical balance of the two Palestinian Arab communities in Israel. At the end of 1949 Muslims constituted 76.6 percent of the total Arab population; by the end of 1987 their relative share had risen to 85.6 percent. The proportion of Christians fell accordingly, from 23.4 percent in 1949 to only 14.4 percent in 1987. In absolute terms, the size of the Muslim population increased from 111,500 at the end of 1949 to about 500,000 at the end of 1987 (excluding the residents of East Jerusalem), representing a 4.5-fold increase,

while the Christian population increased during those years from 34,000 to about 86,000 (excluding East Jerusalem), or a 2.5-fold increase (see table 1.5).

The primary factor in the rise in natural increase rates of the Muslim population was a decline in mortality rates. Death rates fell to as low as 6.4 per thousand in the late 1960s, and 3.4 per thousand in 1986-87. Birthrates continued to be high in the first part of the period under study, with even a registered rise in birthrates in the first half of the 1960s. However, the birthrate began to fall off fairly rapidly from the end of the 1960s until it stood at 34 per thousand in 1986-87.⁹ The average natural increase rate of the Muslim population between 1953 and 1987 was 42.2 per thousand.

In order to get some idea of the extent to which these trends in the rate of natural increase of the Muslims in Israel reflect those of the Palestinian population at large, the data above may be compared with those of the only two other Palestinian communities for which such material has been published: the West Bank and Gaza. According to population estimates published by the CBS since September 1967 (see table 1.6), the natural

increase rate of the entire Palestinian population in the West Bank (permanent inhabitants and refugees) was about 29 per thousand in the early 1970s (1971-73). During the following 15 years, this rate showed a gradual upward trend: in the mid-1970s the average annual rate was about 30 per thousand, and in the mid-1980s about 34 per thousand. Natural increase rates during the 1968-86 period tended upward in the Gaza Strip too, and from the early 1970s they exceeded those for the West Bank, increasing from an average annual rate of about 31 per thousand in the early 1970s to about 40 per thousand in 1984-86 (see table 1.7). The average natural increase rate for 1968-86 was 30.5 per thousand in the West Bank and 34.6 per thousand in the Gaza Strip.¹⁰

Demographic developments within the West Bank and Gaza Strip populations followed those of the Arabs in Israel. There is a delay of about two generations between developments in the Christian Arab population in Israel and developments in the territories, and a delay of about a single generation between Christian Arab and Mus...

Índice

• Cover
• Dedication
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of Tables
• List of Figures and Illustrations
• List of Abbreviations
• Preface
• Introduction: The Policies of Demographic Change
• 1 Population Growth and Migration: The Palestinian Communities, 1949-87
• 2 Background to Migration: The Case of Nablus, 1949-56
• 3 Demographic and Economic Origins of the Intifada
• 4 Jordan's Road to Family Planning Policy
• 5 Nasser's Soft Revolution
• 6 Population Pressure and Oil Revenues: Egypt and Saudi Arabia, 1962—85
• 7 Family Planning under Mubarak
• Index