Industry 4.0 and Circular Economy

Towards a Wasteless Future or a Wasteful Planet?

Antonis Mavropoulos, Anders Waage Nilsen

• Editorial: Wiley
• Año: 2020
• ISBN:
  9781119699330
• Edición: 1
• Categoría: Physical Sciences
• Categoría: Organic Chemistry

How the marriage of Industry4.0and theCircularEconomycanradicallytransform waste management—andourworld

Do wereallyhave to make a choice between a wastelessand nonproductiveworldorawastefulandultimately self-destructive one? Futuristandworld-renownedwaste managementscientistAntonis Mavropoulosand sustainablebusiness developer and digital strategist Anders Nilsenrespondwitha ringing and optimistic"No!"TheyexploretheEarth-changingpotential ofa happy (and wasteless)marriage betweenIndustry 4.0andaCircularEconomythat could—withproperlyreshapedwastemanagement practices—delivertransformativeenvironmental, health, and societalbenefits.This book is about the possibility of abrand-newworld and the challenges to achieve it.

Thefourth industrial revolutionhasgiven us innovationsincludingrobotics, artificial intelligence, 3D-printing, andbiotech.Byusingthesetechnologiestoadvance theCircular Economy—whereindustryproduces more durable materials andruns onits own byproducts—the wastemanagementindustrywill become a central element of a more sustainable world andcan ensure itsown, but well beyond business as usual, future.Mavropoulos and Nilsenlook at howthis can be achieved—a wasteless world will require more waste management—and examineobstacles and opportunities such asdemographics, urbanization, global warming, andthe environmental straincausedbythe rise of theglobalmiddle class.

· Explorethenewprevention, reduction, and elimination methodstransformingwaste management

· Comprehend and capitalizeon the business implicationsfor the sector

· Understandthe theory viapractical examples and case studies

· Appreciate the social benefitsofthe new approach

Waste-managementhasalwaysbeen vital for theprotection ofhealth and the environment.Now itcanbecomeacrucialrole modelinshowing howIndustry4.0and theCircular Economycanconvergeto ensureflourishing, sustainable—and muchbrighter—future.

Chapter 1
The End of Business as Usual

Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!

— Niels Bohr

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Recommended Listening

Kind of Blue, Miles Davis

Due to the fact that it is melancholic, romantic, cool, but still remarkably inspiring for forward thinking.

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Recommended Viewing

Wall‐E by Disney

Because it shows the future of our world if IND4.0 and the circular economy are not combined.

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• 1.1 The Trillion‐Dollar Question
• 1.2 The Future Is Warmer, Urbanized, Polluted and Resource‐Hungry
• 1.3 It Can't Happen Again
• 1.4 It's About People, Not Waste
• 1.5 About This Book

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1.1 THE TRILLION‐DOLLAR QUESTION

This is a book about circular economy (CE) and the fourth industrial revolution (IND 4.0) and about their interlinkage and the way their interaction will determine the future of our planet, as the authors of this book assert. Despite the many ongoing discussions on both the circular economy and IND 4.0, rarely is it recognized that they are deeply interconnected, and in real life they cannot be discussed separately, and should not be considered to be mutually exclusive.

In spite of the widespread discussion and countless policy initiatives regarding circular economy, it is usually ignored the fact that IND 4.0 provides the technological, economic, and social framework in which a circular economy will flourish or fail. As an example, a well‐referenced report [1] estimated that the implementation of the circular economy in the European Union (EU) will create 1.2–3 million additional jobs by 2030. However, the report seems to ignore that the essential works required in preparation for reuse, repair, and disassembly either will be automated and robotized or will not become economically viable. In the era of IND4.0, the circular economy will either be digitized, automated, and augmented, or it will not prevail at all.

On the other hand, discourse around IND 4.0 usually focuses on the advances relevant to resource and labor productivity, the radical changes to business models, and the social challenges involved. It is rarely discussed that IND4.0, unless it diverts from the “business as usual” linear approach, will also stimulate and accelerate resource depletion and pollution in an era in which Earth is fast approaching, or has already surpassed, some of its planetary limits. IND4.0 will either meet the circular economy or accelerate environmental deterioration and potential collapse of ecosystems and human societies. This will be covered in more detail in Chapter 2.

IND4.0 and the circular economy represent challenges that are valued, quite literally, in the many trillions of dollars. One of the key aspects that should be considered is that a shift to a circular economy might be the only possible means of sustaining economic growth in the long term through a serious rearrangement of the economic inputs and outputs in all the industrial supply chains. An online analysis [2] of the economic benefits of circular economy reveals that in the EU the annual material cost savings are estimated up to $630 billion, and that is only for the sectors of complex medium‐lived products such as mobile phones and washing machines. For fast consumption products such as those for household cleaning, the expected material cost savings are estimated at $700 billion/year. Accenture [3] has assessed that the shift to a circular economy has the potential to create an additional $4.5 trillion economic output by 2030, if circular business models are rapidly adopted. In addition, such a shift can contribute to closing the eight billion‐tonne material gap between supply and demand that is expected in 2030. In the long term, an additional $25 trillion economic output is forecast by 2050. These economic benefits do not include the monetization of the expected environmental benefits such as the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions; the gradual decline in consumption of primary materials, which can reach to 32% within the next 10 years; and the benefits from the reduction of land degradation that already costs more than $40 billion annually. McKinsey has calculated [4] that for the EU an additional $1.3 trillion of benefits annually is expected in non‐resource and externality costs.

Moving to IND4.0, for the period 2015–2025, the World Economic Forum assessed [5] the economic and social benefits of the digital transformation to almost $100 trillion through digital consumption, digital enterprise, societal implications, and platform governance. By 2025, the digital economy will have a share of 24.3% of the global economy and a value of $23 trillion, compared with 15.5% and $11.5 trillion in 2016, according to a report prepared by Oxford Economics [6], providing extra income of $500/year for the average worker. The same report assessed that the digital economy is growing 2.5 times faster than the global economy and that, on average over the past three decades, a US $1 investment in digital technologies has led to a US $20 rise in gross domestic product (GDP).

Since both the circular economy and IND4.0 represent trillions of dollars in opportunities, this book poses the trillion‐dollar question: will IND 4.0 and the circular economy converge, hence delivering not only better resource efficiency but a more sustainable future for everyone on the planet? Or will IND4.0 evolve according to the business as usual linear model, leaving the circular economy a mere flight of fancy, resulting in faster resource depletion, acceleration of environmental degradation, and deeper inequality? The authors of this book believe that any answer to the trillion‐dollar question involves the transformation of the waste management sector. However, before delving deeper into this discussion, it is beneficial to outline the planetary framework in which the circular economy and IND4.0 are discussed. A warmer, continuously urbanized, and more resource‐demanding planet sets the scene from which our future will evolve.

1.2 THE FUTURE IS WARMER, URBANIZED, POLLUTED, AND RESOURCE‐HUNGRY

It has always been difficult to predict the future, but in a world that is becoming continuously more interconnected and complex, discontinuity and abrupt change become the rule and not the exception, as the 2008–2013 financial crisis proved. Still, there are some basic trends that will continue to shape our planet for the next 20–30 years.

The first trend is global warming. Although there are some differing opinions, there is a very strong consensus about the roots of the problem and the way to deal with it. About 97% of the studies published by climate scientists agree that global warming is extremely likely to be linked to human activities [7]. Almost all of the major scientific organizations worldwide [8] endorse such a view. Regarding extreme weather phenomena, between 2015 and 2018, more than 100 papers have been published on this subject, and 75% of them concluded [9] that extreme weather is related to global warming. In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned [10] that only a dozen years are available to keep global warming to a maximum of 1.5 °C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat, and poverty for hundreds of millions of people. In November 2019, more than 11 000 scientists from all over the world declared that “planet Earth is facing a climate emergency” [11].

Global warming is directly linked with both IND4.0 and circular economy. The development of innovative low‐carbon technologies, especially in the energy sector, which will allow the immediate reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and the hasty decarbonization of our economies, is an urgent necessity. IND4.0 not only brings the promise of unimaginable innovation, but it also provides new tools to coordinate the global responses on global warming, increase energy efficiency and reduce losses, as well as actively forecast and link energy supply and demand [12]. However, according to the International Resource Panel [13], by 2050 almost 1.5 billion tonnes of metals will be required to develop low‐carbon infrastructure and wiring. The World Bank has predicted that the development of green low‐carbon technologies will definitely drive a substantial increase in the demand for several minerals and metals such as aluminum, co...

Índice

• Cover
• Table of Contents
• Foreword by Ad Lansink
• Foreword by Dimitris Kaliampakos
• Foreword by Erik Solheim
• Series Preface
• Preface
• About the Authors
• About the Graphic Designer
• Endorsements
• Glossary
• Acronyms
• Chapter 1: The End of Business as Usual
• Chapter 2: Understanding Industry 4.0
• Chapter 3: Un(mis)understanding Circular Economy
• Chapter 4: Redefining Resources andWaste
• Chapter 5: Waste Management 4.0
• Chapter 6: Towards the Digitalization of the Waste Industry
• Chapter 7: The Rise of a NewScience
• Chapter 8: Stairway to Heavenor Highway to Hell?
• Epilogue: The Future Starts with You
• Epilogue: Towards Irreversible Wastelands
• Index
• End User License Agreement