Economics

Nominal GDP vs Real GDP

Nominal GDP represents the total value of goods and services produced in a country at current market prices, without adjusting for inflation. Real GDP, on the other hand, adjusts for inflation, providing a more accurate measure of an economy's output over time. By accounting for price changes, real GDP allows for a more meaningful comparison of economic performance across different time periods.

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11 Key excerpts on "Nominal GDP vs Real GDP"

  • Macroeconomics For Dummies
    • Dan Richards, Manzur Rashid, Peter Antonioni(Authors)
    • 2016(Publication Date)
    • For Dummies
      (Publisher)
    A different choice wouldn’t affect the graph of nominal GDP but would change the graph of real GDP to ensure that it was equal to nominal GDP during the base year. For example, if the base year was 2006, the real GDP “number” for all the years would be much lower than the numbers in Figure 4-1, and nominal and real GDP would be equal in that year. That’s not because a different base year affects total output or living standards, but because the real GDP figures would be based on what prices were in 2006. One final point: Like nominal GDP, real GDP is still measured in dollar values, for example, $16.4 trillion at the end of 2015. But the dollar values used to calculate real GDP are unchanging, that is, they reflect the prices from the base year. For this reason, real GDP is often called “constant dollar” GDP. It’s a measure of the total production in dollars of a constant value — ones that are not losing value due to inflation (or gaining it due to deflation). Identifying the components of GDP As we’ve emphasized, this special one good called GDP is incredibly flexible. You can take some of it and turn it into manufacturing goods, some into wholesale and retails services, and some into defense goods and services. In fact, we do exactly that. Currently, we use about 16 percent of our GDP for manufacturing, about 14 percent for wholesale and retail trade, and about 4 percent for federal defense outlays. The rest goes for all other things — healthcare, transportation, education, and so on. That’s how we constructed GDP in the first place. We added all the value added from each sector into one total. Once we’ve got the total, though, we can reclassify how we slice up that GDP in other ways. We could do it regionally — GDP in the West, in the South, in the North and East, or by state
  • Understanding Economic Equilibrium
    eBook - ePub

    Understanding Economic Equilibrium

    Making Your Way Through an Interdependent World

    PART II
    GDP and Consumption
    Passage contains an image
    CHAPTER 4
    GDP: The Perfectly Imperfect Measurement
    Gross domestic product (GDP) is likely the most featured, argued over, concerning, and sometimes even misleading economic indicator. A measure of the value of all final goods and services produced in an economy, GDP is as important as it is imperfect. The annual growth in GDP, expressed as a percentage, is our proxy for how the economy is doing. But it is not a definitive metric for economic well-being; it is compromised by a number of shortcomings.
    There are two ways to measure GDP: real and nominal. Real GDP is the figure we hear most, that number bandied about quarterly or at the end of a year as the measure of the country’s economic progress. “Real” is considered the better measurement of underlying activity because it gauges the actual change in the quantity of goods and services produced—that is, it adjusts for inflation—while nominal GDP is the tally of spending on final goods and services and thus can be enlarged by inflation.
    Nominal GDP is less preferred because spending changes for two reasons: you’re either buying more things or paying more because of inflation. If nominal GDP increases by 2 percent and inflation over the same period is also 2 percent, real GDP is zero. There is no real growth. Both measures are important to monitor, but changes in real GDP tell us how much more (or less) is being produced.
    By focusing on the final sales of goods and services GDP keeps us from being misled by double counting. For example, buying a car. The automobile you buy comes with tires; they’re an “intermediate good.” They are produced, of course, but if you count them as goods sold on their own, then count the purchase price of the car at its sale, you’re double-counting the tires—not to mention the many other parts that get made, sold to the auto manufacturer, and built into your car.
  • UFS BUSINESS SCHOOL EDITION ECONOMIC INDICATORS
    The transformation of GDP at current prices to GDP at constant prices is a complicated process. Nominal GDP is broken down into its different components and each of these is then converted to values measured at the prices ruling in the base period. The values of the different components at constant prices are then added together to obtain real GDP. Details of these processes fall beyond the scope of this book. However, the difference between valuation at current prices and valuation at constant prices (ie between nominal and real values) is crucially important when national accounting data are analysed or interpreted.
    TABLE 2-3 Nominal and real GDP and nominal and real growth rates, 2010 to 2018
    Year GDP at current market prices (nominal GDP) GDP at constant 2010 prices (real GDP) Growth rates (% change since previous year)
      (R millions) (R millions) Nominal Real
    2010 2 748 008 2 748 008      –    –
    2011 3 023 659 2 838 258 10,0 3,3
    2012 3 253 851 2 901 076   7,6 2,2
    2013 3 539 977 2 973 176   8,8 2,5
    2014 3 805 350 3 028 090   7,5 1,8
    2015 4 049 884 3 064 237   6,4 1,2
    2016 4 359 061 3 076 465   7,6 0,4
    2017 4 653 579 3 119 984   6,8 1,4
    2018 4 873 899 3 144 539   4,7 0,8
    Source: SARB Quarterly Bulletin, March 2019.

    2.7 SOME PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH GDP

    Although GDP is the best available measure of aggregate activity in the domestic economy, it is not a perfect measure. As a result, GDP is sometimes jokingly referred to as the “grossly deceptive product” or the “grossly distorted picture”. Users of national accounting data should always remember that the estimation of total production, income and expenditure in the economy is an enormous task. Various conceptual and measurement problems are encountered; it is often difficult to define precisely what should be measured, and the information is also often inadequate. As a result, the compilation of the national accounts involves liberal use 30
  • The Macroeconomic Environment of Business
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    The Macroeconomic Environment of Business

    Core Concepts and Curious Connections

    • Maurice D Levi(Author)
    • 2014(Publication Date)
    • WSPC
      (Publisher)
    Inflation, which means a general increase in prices, will raise the GDP and national income; we will be adding higher values of goods or incomes because the prices of the goods and levels of incomes are higher. However, we do not wish to say a country is better off just because dollar values of production and incomes are higher. People are better off only if there is a larger quantity of goods and services for them to enjoy. Similarly, people are better off only if their incomes will purchase a larger quantity of products.
    In order to obtain a measure of real economic performance that does not show an improvement merely because prices have risen we need to measure the change in the GDP that would have occurred if all prices had remained unchanged. In order to do this the national income accountant:
    (1)Measures physical outputs of everything each year, and
    (2)values all outputs each year at the prices in a common, base year.
    The physical outputs of all items each year are valued at the common base year prices before they are added up to obtain the GDP. By valuing the output of each year at the same base year prices the national income accountant derives the value of output at unchanged prices. The relevance of this measure, and the way it is calculated, can be seen by an example.
    Adjusting GDP for Inflation: An Example: Imagine a very small and simple economy that produces only six items. Table 1.4 summarizes the amounts produced and the prices during two years that are a decade apart.
    Table 1.4. Real GDP can be compared between years without the distortion of inflation.
    Nominal or current-price GDP is the value of output each year at current prices. Real or constant-price GDP is the value of output during each year at base-year prices. Changes in real GDP occur only from changes in the volumes of outputs, and not from changes in prices. During periods of inflation real GDP increases less than nominal GDP.
    The dollar value of GDP, where the value is assessed at prices prevailing at the time the goods and services are produced, is called the nominal GDP or current-price GDP. Sometimes the label current-dollar GDP
  • Contemporary Economics
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    Contemporary Economics

    An Applications Approach

    • Robert Carbaugh(Author)
    • 2016(Publication Date)
    • Routledge
      (Publisher)
  • Although GDP is our best single measure of the value of the output produced by an economy, it is not a perfect measure of economic well-being. For example, GDP ignores transactions that do not take place in organized markets. GDP also ignores the underground economy as well as changes in the environment that arise through the production of output. Furthermore, GDP does not account for leisure, nor does it show how much output is available per person. Finally, GDP does not reflect the quality and kinds of goods that compose a nation’s output.
  • Nominal GDP, or current-dollar GDP, is expressed in terms of the prices existing in the year in which goods and services were produced. Real GDP, or constant-dollar GDP, is nominal GDP adjusted to eliminate changes in prices. It measures actual (real) production and shows how actual production—rather than the prices of what is produced—has changed. Real GDP is superior to nominal GDP for assessing rates of economic growth.
  • An economy realizes economic growth when it increases its full production level of output over time. The rate of economic growth is the percentage change in the level of economic activity from one year to the next. Typically, analysts look at the rate of growth in an economy’s real GDP.
  • The keys to long-run economic growth are the incentives that induce individuals to work and firms to invest in production technology, within the limits imposed by demographics and the rate of technological advancement. Among the major determinants of economic growth are natural resources, physical capital, human capital, and economic efficiency. Government may enact policies to foster economic growth, such as boosting productivity by increasing domestic saving, stimulating research and development, working to reduce trade barriers, and improving the efficiency of regulation. Governments may also target and subsidize specific industries that might be especially important for technological progress.
  • According to the traditional theory of economic growth as pioneered by Adam Smith, economic efficiency is spurred by perfect competition. Traditional growth theory emphasizes two resources—labor and capital. Technological progress is viewed as being outside the scope of economic theory, and thus something that we accept as a given.
  • Macroeconomic Analysis and Policy
    eBook - ePub
    • Joshua E Greene(Author)
    • 2017(Publication Date)
    • WSPC
      (Publisher)
    IV. SUMMARY
    The real sector of the economy involves output (production), employment, and inflation. Developments in the real sector are recorded in the national accounts, with data on output, expenditure, and income presented both in real terms (at constant prices) and nominal terms. Real sector data represent flows.
    Gross domestic product (GDP) is the best known and arguably most important of the aggregates recorded in the real sector. GDP can be measured in three ways: as output (value added) by sector of production; as expenditure (subdivided into consumption, investment, and exports less imports of goods and services); and as income (wages, profits, interest, and returns to property ownership). In principle all three approaches should yield the same result, although differences in how items are measured can lead to statistical discrepancies. Gross national income (GNI) adds net factor income from abroad (income of short-term consultants, profit remittances, and net interest payments) to GDP. Including net foreign transfers (grants to governments plus net worker remittances) leads to an even broader income measure, gross national disposable income (GNDI). Subtracting total consumption (C) from gross national disposable income yields gross national savings (S). S − I (total investment) and GNDI – (C + I) each equal the current account balance in the balance of payments. Thus, a current account deficit implies that GNDI is less than the sum of C plus I, or that S is less than I, while a current account surplus implies that GNDI exceeds C plus I and S is greater than I.
    Inflation represents a sustained increase in prices, as opposed to a one-time jump in prices that is later reversed. Inflation can be measured using various price indices, of which the consumer price index (CPI) is the best known and most widely used for monitoring price developments. Other useful price indices include the wholesale price index (WPI) and the producer price index (PPI), each of which reflect price changes at the preretail stage and may provide indications of future changes in the CPI. The GDP deflator is the index used to convert GDP from current prices to constant prices. Because the GDP deflator reflects changes in the prices of exports and investment goods as well as consumption, inflation as measured by the percent change in the GDP deflator can differ from inflation as measured by the percent change in the CPI. CPI inflation is typically measured as the percent change either in the annual average value of the CPI (annual inflation) or as the percent change in the CPI in one month from the value twelve months earlier (the 12 month inflation rate). The rise in the GDP deflator typically reflects the percent change in the deflator from one quarter to another, or the percent change in the average annual value of the deflator from one year to the next.
  • Business Economics: Theory and Application
    • Neil Harris(Author)
    • 2007(Publication Date)
    • Routledge
      (Publisher)
    There are a number of problems, with using basic GDP statistics. If comparisons are made over time then this does not allow for increasing population, as with China and India. GDP per head of the population (GDP per capita) is therefore a better way to analyse GDP growth. The other problem is inflation. If nominal GDP grows at 5 per cent per annum, for example, and inflation is 6 per cent, then real GDP has actually reduced by 1 per cent per annum. The data above, being at current (nominal) prices does not remove the effects of inflation. Therefore, real GDP per capita is a better measure and comparator over time and between countries than nominal GDP.
    Additionally, comparing GDP of different countries involves converting to a common currency, e.g. dollars in Table 9.1 . However, the exchange rate may not show the purchasing power of a currency very well, e.g. £1 = $1.60 but, as a rule of thumb, in the US one can buy for $1 what it costs £1 to buy in the UK. Economists therefore use a purchasing power parity rate. This enables GDP to be measured in a common currency such that a given amount of money can buy the same amount and type of goods in both countries. If the reader wishes to explore this further he/she is referred to more comprehensive books; for the purposes of this book we do not address this further.
    Table 9.1  Comparison of leading countries’ GDP, $ billion, 1998.
    Country GDP $ billion
    EU members
    Austria212.5
    Belgium250.5
    Denmark174.9
    Finland124.8
    France1433.9
    Germany2135.7
    Greece120.5
    Ireland83.2
    Italy1172.3
    Luxembourg16.7
    Netherlands377.5
    Portugal105.9
    Spain553.3
    Sweden226.9
    UK1357.2
      
    Other
    Japan3777.2
    US8230
    Source: OECD, Economic Outlook, December 1999, NO. 66 © OECD 1999
    9.3  The Components of Real GDP
    In terms of expenditure, let us now remember that we distinguished between gross domestic product (GDP); gross national product (GNP), which was GDP minus net property income from abroad; and net national product (NNP) which was GNP minus depreciation at factor cost. NNP, we said, was also equal to national income.
  • Economic Indicators for Professionals
    eBook - ePub

    Economic Indicators for Professionals

    Putting the Statistics into Perspective

    • Charles Steindel(Author)
    • 2018(Publication Date)
    • Routledge
      (Publisher)
    growth rate of real GDP is the sum of the “growth contributions” of its components. The growth contribution of a spending category is (approximately) the difference between the aggregate real GDP growth rate and the aggregate growth rate that would have been observed if there had been zero growth in spending in that sector. The GDP release and tables on BEA’s web site report growth contributions. The next section shows some of the mathematical details involved in the computation of aggregate GDP from its components, and discusses the formula used to compute growth contributions. It can be skipped by a reader not interested in these details.
    Analytics of GDP aggregation23
    Assume the economy produces (for this discussion, production can be equated with final spending) N items, with each having volume vi and price (dollars per unit of volume) pi . Nominal output of item i in period t is the product of its price and volume, or pit vit . Nominal GDP in period t, NGDPt , is the sum of nominal output for each product:
    N G D
    P t
    =
    p
    i t
    v
    i t
    .
    Real GDP and its growth may be defined in a number of ways. The fixed base year method values real output in a period according to the prices prevailing in the base year. That is to say, let FBY denote the fixed base year aggregate,
    F B
    Y t
    =
    p
    i b
    v
    i t
    ,
    with b denoting the base year. In the base year, nominal and real GDP will be identical. Real base year GDP will be the sum of its real components, valued at base year prices.
    Simple algebra shows that the growth of FBY is a weighted average of the growth of real output of every item:
    F B
    Y t
    / F B
    Y
    t 1
    =
    (
    1 /
    p
    i b
    v
    i t 1
    )
    ×
    p
    i b
    v
    i t 1
    (
    v
    i t
    /
    v
    i t 1
    )
    ,
    with the weight on the growth of the volume of item i equal to
    p
    i b
    v
    i t 1
    /
    p
    i b
    v
    i t 1
    .
    31
  • The Trader's Guide to Key Economic Indicators
    Exhibit 1.9 illustrates this predictive effect.
    EXHIBIT 1.9  Real and Nominal GDP (Y/Y%)
    Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; National Bureau of Economic Research
    As the chart shows, in the past 30 years the U.S. economy has experienced three recessions—in 1990–1991, 2001, and 2007–2009—each of which was preceded by significant declines in the growth rates of real and nominal GDP. Note that during the 1990–1991 recession, the real GDP growth rate fell below zero, while the nominal rate declined but stayed out of negative territory—a common occurrence during most post–World War II downturns. This is because the nominal figure incorporates the effects of inflation, which is almost always rising. For the growth rate of nominal GDP to become negative, the inflation rate would have to be negative (reflecting a decline in prices)—a condition known as deflation—at the same time that the economy is contracting. Deflation is extremely rare in the United States and indeed has been recorded only a couple of times anywhere.
    During the 2007–2009 recession, the real and nominal measures of GDP contracted—the steepest declines in economic output since the Great Depression. This slump was accompanied by a mild case of deflation.
    On average, the year-over-year growth rate in GDP starts declining four to five quarters before a recession. Not all slowdowns, however, result in recession. By the time the warning signals appear, government policy makers have usually put in place measures to avert an economic downturn. The massive stimulus enacted at the onset of the financial crisis and recession in 2008 no doubt helped the U.S. economy avoid a deep depression.
    Still, watching changes in year-over-year GDP growth can be useful for short-term forecasts: Very rarely do trends reverse immediately. It takes a great deal to knock a $15 trillion economy like that of the United States off kilter. Luckily for those in the financial markets, several leading indicators usually send alerts when the behemoth is running out of energy.
  • The Trader's Guide to the Euro Area
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    The Trader's Guide to the Euro Area

    Economic Indicators, the ECB and the Euro Crisis

    Chapter 2

    Gross Domestic Product

    GDP is the most commonly cited comprehensive indicator of economic activity. It is the total market value of the goods and services produced within a nation or, in the case of the euro area, a monetary union. It can also be described as the total income of the geographic area.
    The first word of the term – gross – indicates that depreciation of equipment and factories used in the production process is excluded from the calculation.1 For example, the decline in the value of an aging computer is ignored in this measure of national output.
    The second word of the term – domestic – indicates the inclusion of all production within the region’s borders irrespective of the country of origin of the producer.2 For example, if a Mercedes is produced in a plant constructed by the German company in the U.S., the car is included in U.S. GDP and excluded from German GDP. If the car is produced in Germany and shipped to the U.S., it is included in German GDP and excluded from U.S. GDP.
    Three methods of measuring GDP exist: expenditure, output and income. In theory, all three methods should produce the same figure. In practice, measurement problems normally lead to discrepancies.

    The Expenditure Approach

    The expenditure approach is based on the final or end use of the produced goods and services. This method has historically been used most frequently by national statistical agencies. In a report from 1996 of 18 member countries, the OECD calculated that all of them reported GDP using the expenditure approach. Sixteen of them also tallied the figure using the output method and 10 used the income approach as well.3 These numbers have since risen to 18, 17 and 16, respectively.4
    The accounting identity used to calculate GDP under the expenditure approach states that GDP equals consumption plus investment plus net exports. Consumption is broken down into private consumption and government consumption and investment consists of gross fixed capital investment and the change in inventories. The sum of consumption and investment equals domestic demand. Net exports equals exports minus imports.
  • Farewell to China's GDP Worship
    • Jinzao Li(Author)
    • 2017(Publication Date)
    • WSPC
      (Publisher)
    Table 1.3-1 :
    This table shows the main components of national accounts. The left column shows the main parts of the production approach, and the letters C, I, G and K are often used to indicate the four components of GDP. The middle column shows the main parts of the income/cost approach. The right column indicates the main parts of the expenditure approach. Each method will ultimately arrive at exactly the same GDP.14

    iv.Nominal GDP and real GDP

    In order to eliminate the influence of price fluctuations on GDP estimation over different periods of time, economists have put forward the concepts of nominal GDP and real GDP. Nominal GDP is GDP evaluated at current market price, and real GDP is GDP evaluated at constant or fixed price.
    Table 1.3-1 Three approaches for GDP accounting
    The Production Approach
    The Income Approach
    The Expenditure Approach
    Components of GDP Income or costs as sources of GDP Statistics from the perspective of expenditure
    Consumption (C) Remuneration (salary, pay and subsidy) Final consumption expenditure (including government consumption expenditure)
    + Gross private domestic investment (I) + Corporate profit + Gross capital formation (including government investment)
    Government purchase (G) + Other property incomes (rent, interest, owner’s revenue)
    + Net exports (K) + Depreciation + Net export
    + Production taxes
    Equals: GDP Equals: GDP Equals: GDP
    GDP is a measurement of value which changes depending on the two main factors of change in price and change in production. GDP at constant prices converts the gross domestic product based on the current price into a value based on the price of the base period. When adjusted for price changes, the values of two different periods can be compared to reflect changes of both products and production activities. The GDP index is derived from the constant-price GDPs of the two periods. As an economy grows, changes will take place in the price structures of various industries, thus the base period for the measurement of constant-price GDP needs to be adjusted every few years in order to better reflect the impact of price change on the economy. Since China started GDP calculation, eight constant-price base periods have been used: 1952, 1957, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, 2005 and 2010, and the current base period is 2010. That is to say, the 2013 GDP is calculated on the basis of the 2010 prices. As the calculation of constant-price GDP is based on different base periods, the constant-price GDP data should also be announced in accordance with various periods.
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