2030 Vision for ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership

Perspectives from Think-Tanks

Yanjun Guo

• Editore: WSPC
• Anno: 2018
• ISBN:
  9789813271593
• Argomento: Politique et relations internationales
• Categoria: Politique asiatique

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The year 2018 marks the 15th anniversary of the establishment of ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership. Both ASEAN and China expect to seize this opportunity to take ASEAN-China strategic partnership to a new level.

This book assesses ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership in the past 15 years by taking stock of the implementation of existing ASEAN-China cooperation frameworks, mechanisms and programs; defines overall goals and guiding principles of the ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership toward the end of 2030; sets specific targets, to be reached in 2030, for political and security cooperation, economic cooperation, and people-to-people exchanges between ASEAN and China and recommends concrete and practical measures (including short-term, mid-term and long-term measures) to deepen and widen future cooperation; and offers strategies for the 2030 Vision to be aligned with the ASEAN Community Vision 2025 and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the three pillars of ASEAN-China cooperation.

This book is a collection of conference papers and summary report of the Network of ASEAN-China Think-tanks (NACT) Special Working Group Meeting held in Beijing, China on 26 January 2018. Themed "2030 Vision for ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership" (2030 Vision), the meeting reviewed the past 15 years of ASEAN-China strategic partnership and discussed the reports on the 2030 Vision submitted by leading think tanks of all ASEAN member states and China.

The Network of ASEAN-China Think-tanks (NACT) was proposed by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in 2013 to contribute scholarly work to the "diamond decade" of China-ASEAN strategic partnership and to build a China-ASEAN community of shared future. It was officially launched in 2014. So far, a three-level working mechanism (including Country Coordinators' Meeting, Working Group Meeting and Annual Seminar) has been built, and a regional network of think-tanks has been formed. As a regular and institutionalized platform for think-tanks cooperation, NACT serves to promote joint studies on ASEAN-China relations, strengthen people-to-people ties and become a significant supplement to Track I diplomacy.

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Readership: Policymakers, academics, professionals, undergraduate and graduate students interested in China-ASEAN relations.
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Chapter 1

2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Brunei’s Perspective

NACT Brunei Darussalam

I.	Assessment of ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership

Over the years, China has become one of ASEAN’s most substantive Dialogue Partners. The year 2003 marked a pivotal year with the signing of the Joint Declaration of the Heads of State/Government of ASEAN and the People’s Republic of China on Strategic Partnership for Peace and Prosperity at the Seventh ASEAN–China Summit in October, which elevated the relationship to a higher plane. That day, China became the first Dialogue Partner to establish a strategic partnership with ASEAN, and during the same year, it was the first country outside Southeast Asia to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC). Prior to these milestones, it was the first Dialogue Partner to conclude a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with ASEAN in 2002. All these signal China’s strong support for ASEAN since it was accorded full Dialogue Partner status in 1996.

The relationship has grown rapidly in a wide variety of political–security, economic, and socio-cultural areas, especially through the effective implementation of the Plan of Actions to implement the above-mentioned Joint Declaration.

On the political–security front, ASEAN and China continue to strengthen their Strategic Partnership through sustained and frequent dialogue at all levels such as the Summit, Post Ministerial Conference and Senior Officials’ Meetings. Moreover, China’s support for ASEAN Centrality is evident through ASEAN-led mechanisms such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) — which China is a founding participant of — ASEAN Plus Three (APT), East Asia Summit (EAS), ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus (ADMM Plus) and the Expanded ASEAN Maritime Forum (EAMF). All these frequent exchanges have helped deepen mutual trust and understanding among ASEAN Member States and China, which has made a positive impact on the maintenance of peace, stability, and prosperity in the region.

Although ASEAN–China relations have often been overshadowed in the media by the situation in the South China Sea, the relationship is much broader than any one issue. Despite the ongoing developments, ASEAN and China have consistently reaffirmed the full and effective implementation of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). As a result of recent meetings, ASEAN and China have made steady progress, including the successful testing and operationalization of the Hotline Communications among Senior Officials of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of China and ASEAN Member States in Response to Maritime Emergencies and their defense officials are currently exploring ways to operationalize the adopted Joint Statement on the Application of the Code of Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES) in the South China Sea. This demonstrates the benefits of peaceful dialogue and consultations, to create conditions conducive for the maintenance of peace and stability.

Furthermore, thanks to goodwill and the confidence building measures that are in place, ASEAN and China were able to adopt the Framework of the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) in August 2017 and officially launched negotiations on the COC a few months later during the 20th ASEAN–China Summit. These came in pursuit of the common goal of regional peace and stability, which are essential prerequisites for continued economic growth.

Despite uncertainty in the global economy, economic cooperation between ASEAN and China has continued to thrive. China has maintained its position as ASEAN’s largest trading partner since 2009, with merchandise trade reaching US$368 billion in 2016 (16.5 percent of ASEAN’s total trade), and continued to be the regional association’s fourth-largest external source of foreign direct investment, with flows amounting to US$9.2 billion in 2016. This can be attributed to China’s huge market potential combined with ASEAN’s demographic, where more than half is under the age of 30. This profile is reflected in an appetite among others, who embrace new technology to drive economic activity. Moreover, countries with a growing, productive workforce are more likely to see strong economic growth.

To further bolster economic cooperation between ASEAN and China, the annual trade fair held in Nanning since 2004, known as the China–ASEAN Expo (CAEXPO), was organized. It has paved the way for enterprises from ASEAN and China to rub shoulders with each other, explore business opportunities and further promote the ASEAN–China FTA. Brunei Darussalam had the opportunity to work with China as the Country of Honour twice (2007 and 2017).

With the aim of renewing existing areas of cooperation and to explore new opportunities for collaboration, ASEAN and China have been active in designating an annual theme for the past few years. The year 2016 saw the Year of Educational Exchanges, which saw a series of activities implemented to mark the year, including the Ninth ASEAN–China Education Cooperation Week and the First ASEAN–China Youth Education Forum. Last year was the Year of Tourism, which led to the achievement of the 30 million tourist arrivals (both ways) target — reached 4 years ahead of schedule.

For Brunei Darussalam, a study conducted by the Centre for Strategic and Policy Studies (CSPS) last year showed an estimated BND6.4 million generated from the Chinese market in 2016, with an average stay of 2.8 days. The increase in Chinese tourist arrivals can help achieve the Ministry of Primary Resource and Tourism’s target of 450,000 tourists by 2020. Tourism and people-to-people exchanges do not only have a positive impact on the economy, but it also provides social benefits such as enhancing mutual understanding and appreciation of the diverse cultures of ASEAN and China.

II.	Prospects and Proposed Goals for the 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership

The current breadth and depth of ASEAN–China cooperation encompasses 11 priority areas, namely agriculture, information and communication technology, human resource development, Mekong Basin Development, investment, energy, transport, culture, public health, tourism, and environment. However, there are still potential and much scope to further expand as well as deepen the relationship.

Political–security

In view that developments in the South China Sea will continue to attract the attention of international observers, ASEAN and China must remain committed to, among others, maintain peace and stability in the area, respect for freedom of navigation in and over-flight above the South China Sea and resolve disputes by peaceful means, in accordance with international law, including the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

To further foster mutual trust and understanding, ASEAN and China should build on the positive momentum achieved last year and work together to create more practical measures such as the ASEAN–China Maritime Exercise, a proposal that was first raised during the ASEAN–China Defense Ministers’ Informal Meeting in May 2016.

Economic cooperation

With regard to economic cooperation, the Leaders mandated the upgrade of the ASEAN–China FTA Protocol (Protocol to Amend the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation and Certain Agreements thereunder between ASEAN and the People’s Republic of China) back in November 2015. In this regard, ASEAN and China must continue to encourage the remaining ASEAN Member States to ratify the upgrade as it is expected for it to bring both sides closer to realizing the twin goals of two-way trade and investment of US$1 trillion and US$150 billion, respectively, by 2020.

Against the backdrop of growing protectionist and anti-globalization sentiments in some parts of the world, ASEAN and China must stand firm against this, and reaffirm that international trade and investment are important engines for sustainable economic growth, the reduction of inequality within society, and securing a better future for its people. This can be done through the conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), where negotiations began in November 2012. The 16 RCEP-participating countries account for almost half of the world’s population, almost 30 percent of Global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and over a quarter of world exports. The agreement has the potential to deliver significant opportunities for businesses in ASEAN and China, including better market access and further elimination of tariffs.

Connectivity

ASEAN and China recognize the benefits of synergizing common priorities identified in the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) 2025 and China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). In this regard, both sides should continue to explore ways to improve connectivity, which in turn would significantly facilitate the development of economic and trade relations. Necessary measures include mobilizing private capital and enhancing capacity building to support infrastructure development in the region. Elements from the Joint Statement between ASEAN and China on Further Deepening the Cooperation on Infrastructure Connectivity must be incorporated in this regard.

People-to-people

ASEAN Member States and China have differences in, among others, governance, development level, religion, and so on; but these differences have never stopped advancing people-to-people exchanges. The 20th ASEAN–China Summit noted Cambodia’s proposal to host the 3rd ASEAN–China Youth Exchange Visit in Siem Reap this year. These initiatives, along with Chinese Government scholarships to ASEAN Member States, including the Double 100,000 Students Mobility Program, are beneficial in promoting the social ties in which the peoples from both sides would be more “acceptable” to each other.

Furthermore, cultural cooperation is based on mutual understanding, respect, and acceptance that can lead to harmonious ties. In this regard, intercountry cultural cooperation must start from the bottom and cannot be built from the top. This is where people-to-people cooperation is the key cornerstone.

In doing so, and as a follow-up to the Year of Tourism 2017, ASEAN and China could try and push for the establishment of a formal high-level framework of cooperation, to strengthen, deepen and broaden cooperation in tourism. Moreover, ASEAN and China could also raise awareness of ASEAN–China cultural relations and encourage opportunities for cultural exchanges through, among others, the promotion of preserving and protecting the cultural heritage of ASEAN and China.

Future challenges

Lastly, ASEAN and China could also cooperate in addressing future challenges, which may come about by 2030.

An interest of Brunei Darussalam is adapting to the Fourth Industrial Revolution — specifically the increase use of robotics and automation in the manufacturing and service sectors. While this can bring many opportunities and benefits, it is also perceived as potentially “disruptive” and may have a profound impact on how we live and work. It will affect jobs, and for many of us, it means the real possibility of being technologically and economically marginalized.

Although this may take several years to set in, it requires us to look at ways to manage and adapt in the years ahead. Therefore, it would be useful to have regular discussions on this.

Another is urbanization. This is an issue that could affect both ASEAN and China. According to a report by the Economist Intelligence Unit, many local authorities in the region (ASEAN) “are struggling to manage expansion while keeping up with the rate at which their populations are increasing.” The report cautions that while the growth presents great opportunity, ASEAN cities are still grappling with basic problems and without skillful management, cities could face a multitude of problems such as congestion, crime, urban poverty, and pollution.

Here, ASEAN and China can learn f...

Indice dei contenuti

• Cover
• Halftitle
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of Contributors
• Summary of NACT Special Working Group Meeting on “2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership”
• Chapter 1 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Brunei’s Perspective
• Chapter 2 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Cambodia’s Perspective
• Chapter 3 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: China’s Perspective
• Chapter 4 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Indonesia’s Perspective
• Chapter 5 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Lao PDR’s Perspective
• Chapter 6 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Malaysia’s Perspective
• Chapter 7 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Myanmar’s Perspective
• Chapter 8 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: The Philippines’ Perspective
• Chapter 9 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Singapore’s Perspective
• Chapter 10 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Thailand’s Perspective
• Chapter 11 2030 Vision for ASEAN–China Strategic Partnership: Vietnam’s Perspective