Applied Climatology

Principles and Practice

Allen Perry, Dr Russell Thompson, Russell Thompson

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2013
• ISBN:
  9781134769124
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Sciences biologiques
• Subtopic: Science environnementale

'Big freeze' conditions, storms, severe flooding, droughts, and heatwaves - recent extremes in weather, with their resultant physical, economic and human losses, highlight the vulnerability of society to changes in the atmosphere. Atmospheric pollution, urbanization, natural atmospheric disasters are causing dramatic changes in climatic environments.
Applied Climatology examines the effects of climate on physical, biological and cultural environments. Specialist contributors from Europe, North America and Australasia examine the impacts of changing climates on the functioning and development of physical biological environments including glaciers, water resources, landforms, soils, vegetation and animals.
Weather and climate effects day-to-day activities and lifestyles from the clothes we wear to the buildings we design, and the food and energy we produce. This book focusses on the relationship between climate and a wide range of human activities and responses relating to health and comfort, building design, transport systems, agriculture and fisheries, tourism and social, industrial and legal issues.
Climate-environment relationships and impacts on human activities are predicted to change dramatically if global warming accelerates at the rates currently proposed. Applied Climatology examines the characteristics and consequences of the changing global climate and considers the future for both natural and human environments.

1

INTRODUCTION: THE EMERGENCE OF APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY AND CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT

John E. Hobbs

INTRODUCTION: WEATHER, CLIMATE AND EVERYDAY LIFE

We are all affected by the atmosphere and by information about the atmosphere and we react to the atmosphere through our ability to make decisions. Weather and climate are important factors in determining our day-to-day and longer-term activities and lifestyles. Why do we wear clothes if for reasons other than fashion or modesty? Why do we erect buildings and then heat or cool them? These are all adjustments to the atmosphere and the conditions it produces. Such relationships between people and the atmosphere point to the conclusion that in many ways, our lives are in effect governed by applications of our perception and understanding of, and information about, the atmosphere.

The atmosphere provides frequent topics for superficial conversation. How often is a comment about the weather the first thing we say at the start of the day or when we meet someone? A story from a Sunday newspaper magazine about a mother’s telephone call from her son in Japan illustrates this well:

So, what do we talk about? Why, the weather of course. That is what everyone talks about when they call the other side of the world. The topic of climate is such a non-threatening entree and convenient cover-up for the real and big emotions most of us dare not to broach without fervent discussion of low pressure systems.

She suggested that she had friends who get withdrawal symptoms if they have not heard the daily weather report, and that the weather is the reigning monarch of their repertoire of small-talk, representing an opening gambit and a focus of conversation.

The weather is considered a ‘safe’ topic of conversation and it is seen as neutral ground, where no offence can be given or taken. The weather is something we all have in common since it is in the public domain, is considered by many to be ‘safer’ than politics and is not at all personal. However, alternatively, others see the weather as intensely personal and as the most mysterious of everyday wonders. There is no question that debate over recent years on matters like the enhanced greenhouse effect and global warming, ozone depletion, acid rain and the nuclear winter has attracted concern about the atmosphere and the weather and climate it produces, at a level involving the whole population and not just the interested scientists.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY

Interest in the atmosphere and an awareness of its impact on human activities is nothing new since the earliest records of weather lore date back at least 6000 years. Humans have always been interested in ‘cause and effect’ which helps to establish an order to existence. The ancient Egyptians planned their lives on the assumptions embodied in their weather lore and the Greeks, Arabians and Chinese were very much aware of weather and climate. The ancient Romans and Greeks produced descriptions of the climates of Britain, central Europe and Russia which might be considered a form of early applied climatology. The Chinese thought of their environment in terms of the abundance or failure of rains and recorded variations in terms of rainfall that determined harvests and tax revenues (Miller, 1987).

The Greeks gave names and qualities to the winds and their philosophers and writers postulated many ideas concerning the role of climate in the nature of people. Hippocrates, in his Airs, Waters and Places, contrasted easygoing Asiatics with penurious Europeans by suggesting that the latter had to be more active to ameliorate their environment. Aristotle wrote of weather lore and his pupil, Theophrastus, devoted a major portion of his life to assembling weather wisdom into orderly presentations. His Inquiry into Plants and Minor Works on Odours and Weather Signs contained many weather insights which are as valid today as when they were written in the fourth century BC. Roman writers, like Strabo, suggested that the rise and strength of Rome were due partly to the climate of Italy. With the decline of Rome (see Chapter 24, Into the medieval optimum), explanations of the role of humans in their environment diminished whereas in medieval times, writers were not encouraged to deal with matters that did not conform to biblical teaching (Siddiqi and Oliver, 1987). Outside the Christian world, Arabic writers contributed to a discussion of the climate-human relationship and, for example, Ibn Khaldun divided the hemisphere into seven climatic zones, the extremes of which were uninhabitable. Only the ‘middle’ zone provided climates in which people were regarded as able to excel in wisdom, being neither too stolid nor too passionate.

A resurrection of classical ideas was apparent in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Montesquieu proposed that people who live in cold climates are stronger, more courageous, less suspicious and less cunning than those in hot regions. Kant, Ritter and Humboldt presented similar views (Siddiqi and Oliver, 1987). Virgil, Chaucer, Shelley and many others wrote of the weather, Shakespeare’s plays and sonnets abound with weather insights, and artists such as Constable, Turner and Monet had a clear perception of the atmosphere (Thornes, 1978). As noted by Smith (1987), writers have always commented on the variability of climate and the consequences for human affairs. An understanding of climatic history is central to our understanding of human history and the history of the environment as much as to forward planning and assessment of risks (Lamb, 1969). In a sense, therefore, history, or at least the explanations of history, are part of the realm of applied climatology.

In more recent times, Ellen Churchill Semple and Ellsworth Huntington were closely associated with environmental determinism, the latter being arguably the archetypical climatic determinist. The essence of Huntington’s work was that climate change is one of the major factors determining human progress and that there is a climatic optimum for humans regardless of background. His work was not soundly based on scientific evidence and it oversimplified complex variables, but it did represent an early recognition of many aspects of applied climatology. In the light of the above it can be argued that applied climatology has never had to emerge – it has always been with us. This line of thought also supports the proposition that all climatology might be considered as applied or that, at the very least, applied climatology as such should be seen as the preeminent branch of the broad field of climatology. Nevertheless it must be recognized that many would disagree with this, instead seeing applied climatology in much narrower terms and of relatively recent emergence.

DEFINITIONS, APPLICATIONS AND DEVELOPMENTS

What is applied climatology? How might it be defined? Do topics presented at conferences on applied climatology define the field? Does the scope of this book define the field? Changnon (1995) has suggested that the field is really much larger than what applied climatologists might define as their domain. Landsberg and Jacobs (1951) defined applied climatology as ‘the scientific analysis of climatic data in the light of a useful application for an operational purpose’. Smith (1987) saw applied climatology as the use of archived and real-time climatic information to solve a variety of social, economic and environmental problems for clients and managers, in fields such as agriculture, industry and energy. Marotz (1989) suggested that applied climatology is the scientific use of climatic data and theoretical constructs for the solution of particular problems. It was noted that Oliver (1981) saw applied climatology as one of four major subgroups of climatology together with climatography, physical climatology and dynamic climatology. Smith (1987) used Thomas’ (1981) listing of sectors, in which climate has social, economic and environmental significance, as a means of defining the scope of applied climatology. The field of applied climatology can then be considered to encompass four broad groups of problems, as follows:

1 Design and specification of material or equipment.

2 Location and use of equipment or structures.

3 Planning of a particular operation.

4 Climatic influences on biological activities.

Changnon (1995) saw applied climatology as a general term, widely used but often widely misunderstood. He provided a model for applied climatology consisting of a core and two concentric rings (Figure 25.1), all interacting and reflecting an expansion of activity. In his model, the inner core is focused on data (e.g. instruments, collection, transmission, quality assessment, spatial and temporal representativeness, archival and accessing) whereas the inner ring relates to interpretation and generation of climate information from the data core. It includes statistical and physical analyses, performance of specialized studies, generation of publications and a variety of computer-based outputs. A much larger outer circle of activity comprises those who use climate data and information for various purposes, namely scientists, engineers, business people and others in non-atmospheric science disciplines and activities. This user-community includes hydrology, agriculture, ecology, geography, energy supply, medicine, the construction industry, architecture, transportation, leisure and recreation, tourism and government. It thus encompasses most human activity on a day-to-day basis.

According to Changnon, therefore, part of applied climatology is defined by the atmospheric scientists and geographers who practise and identify with it, and part is defined by the many practitioners/users beyond the atmospheric sciences. Applied climatology then begins with the instruments used to sample and measure the atmosphere (Chapter 2) and it includes the acquisition, evaluation and storage of data (Chapter 3). It ends with those who apply such information in their research and decision making as, for example, is represented by Parts 2, 3 and 4 of this book. Such a definition implies that applied climatology did not exist before instrumentation. It also makes an applied climatologist out of, for example, the hydrologist studying the relationship between climatic conditions and surface water or the engineer forecasting public utility loads. Conferences for a wide range of professionals in a variety of fields such as engineering, economics, agriculture, tourism, botany and geography commonly include presentations involving relationships between climate and their specialist areas of study. Changnon pointed to the work of scientists like Horton and Thiessen, who used climatic data for applications in their own fields of interest. Also early efforts to develop climatic classifications, such as those by Koppen and Thornthwaite, were identified as examples of applied climatology, as was the work of Brooks in studies of climatic influences on human behaviour and health.

There is general agreement that the Second World War gave a major impetus to the development of applied climatology (e.g. Changnon, 1995; Haggard, 1982; Marotz, 1989; Miller, 1987; Smith, 1987). Jacobs (1947) noted that applied climatology was born out of the operational requirements of the military during the Second World War. Applications of climatology developed greatly at that time, with more extensive data networks, improved methods for sorting and analysing data and expansion of archives. During the 1940s and early 1950s, the discovery of features like the polar front jet stream and its role in atmospheric circulation led to increased efforts to construct dynamic climatologies which, with the emergence of refined statistical and mathematical approaches, led to new applications and extensions of climatological principles (Marotz, 1989). Hydrologists such as Langbein, Wolman and Ven Te Chow also figured prominently in the post-war development of applied climatology, while researchers like Landsberg, Sewell, Maunder, McQuigg and Kates made significant contributions to the development of climate impact studies.

Smith (1987) suggested that the term ‘applied climatology’ came into common use in the early 1940s with the realization that meteorological agencies could provide more valuable services to the community than just weather forecasts. He claimed that applied climatology has grown in stature and scope since the 1950s, a period that has been called the ‘golden age’ of applied climatology (Changnon, 1995). This growth can be attributed partly to the development of specific skills and techniques using modern methods of data handling linked with improved understanding of statistical theory, particularly as related to extreme events and probability analysis (Chapter 3). The problems themselves, while becoming more complex, have also become better defined.

ATMOSPHERIC CONCERN AND AWARENESS

Recent concerns about possible severe climatic impacts on a growing global population have brought the ‘discipline’ more and more into the public arena. The potential vulnerability of the modern world to climatic variability, growing energy problems and an awareness of environmental consequences of the continued consumption of fossil fuels have led to a ‘coming of age’ for applied climatology. Recognition over the last 30 years of the need to apply climatic knowledge to societal planning at governmental, industrial and private levels has highlighted the actual and potential roles of the applied climatologist (Haggard, 1982). Hare (1979) even suggested that the 1970s might be remembered as the decade in which climate had a major destabilizing effect on world economies.

Thornes (1978) posed the question ‘How does applied climatology fit into the jigsaw of atmospheric studies?’ He identified three basic approaches to atmospheric studies: namely, atmospheric science (theoretical), atmospheric perception (experiential) and atmospheric management (behavioural). Atmospheric management, which is equated with applied climatology (Thornes, 1980), is seen as bridging the gap between scientific (atmospheric science) and artistic (atmospheric perception) approaches to the atmosphere. It is concerned with efficient atmospheric resource management (Chapter 5) and atmospheric hazard response (Chapter 23) and requires the merging of physical process–response models with socioeconomic, or econoclimatic, models (Perry, 1971). Nearly 30 years ago, Sewell (1968) stressed the need for social science research into atmospheric resource and hazard problems but, despite many similar calls (e.g. Maunder, 1970; Mather, 1974; Smith, 1974; Terjung, 1976), real progress in this regard has been relatively recent. The ...