Campaigns and Elections American Style

The Changing Landscape of Political Campaigns

Candice J. Nelson,James A. Thurber

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2018
• ISBN:
  9780429887130
• Edition: 5
• Topic: Politik & Internationale Beziehungen
• Subtopic: Politik

Following one of the most contentious and surprising elections in US history, the new edition of this classic text demonstrates unequivocally: Campaigns matter. With new and revised chapters throughout, Campaigns and Elections American Style provides a real education in contemporary campaign politics. In the fifth edition, academics and campaign professionals explain how Trump won the presidency, comparing his sometimes novel tactics with tried and true strategies including how campaign themes and strategies are developed and communicated, the changes in campaign tactics as a result of changing technology, new techniques to target and mobilize voters, the evolving landscape of campaign finance and election laws, and the increasing diversity of the role of media in elections. Offering a unique and careful mix of Democrat and Republican, academic and practitioner, and male and female campaign perspectives, this volume scrutinizes national and local-level campaigns with a special focus on the 2016 presidential and congressional elections and what those elections might tell us about 2018 and 2020. Students, citizens, candidates, and campaign managers will learn not only how to win elections but also why it is imperative to do so in an ethical way. Perfect for a variety of courses in American government, this book is essential reading for political junkies of any stripe and serious students of campaigns and elections.

Highlights of the Fifth Edition

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• Covers the 2016 elections with an eye to 2018 and 2020.

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• Explains how Trump won the presidency, the changes in campaign tactics as a result of changing technology, new techniques to target and mobilize voters, the evolving landscape of campaign finance and election laws, and the increasing diversity of the role of media.

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• Includes a new part structure and the addition of part introductions to help students contextualize the major issues and trends in campaigns and elections.

PART I
The Political Context of Campaigns

Campaign Planning and Management, Political Parties, and Redistricting

All campaigns analyze the political environment, choose tactics or tools to implement the campaign strategy, and establish the campaign budget (the allocation of money, time, and personnel to each element of the campaign plan). Campaign tactics are the specific activities used to achieve the strategic objective: victory in the election. Campaign tactics, managing the message to target groups of voters, are at the operational level of the campaign. The critical elements of campaign strategy and planning have evolved with each election cycle, amid dramatically changing methods and tactics for achieving strategic goals, as shown in the 2016 presidential campaign. In Chapter 2, “Campaign Planning and Management: The Key Elements of Campaigns,” Anne Caprara argues that a campaign without a plan is a journey without a map. She focuses on the key elements of a modern campaign—regardless of size, office sought, or location. She points out that all winning campaigns have certain things in common and all bad campaigns share certain elements as well. Understanding both is fundamental to success. She illustrates that the fundamentals of a good campaign transcend party, candidate and location. No matter what party or candidate, disciplined and professional campaigns mostly look the same. She describes the role of campaign manager, operations and organization, fundraising, research, communications, digital operations, field, and consultants in a well-run campaign organization. Smart campaigns learn from opposing campaigns and candidates. They adapt when they see successes by their opponents. Strategy requires good instincts, an understanding of politics, historical context, and careful quantifiable and qualitative research. A campaign must be organized into a plan (often written) to present a message to voters about a candidate, but that plan is always subject to change, a dynamic and endless series of dialogues within the campaign to sharpen the focus of the strategy and message. It is the compass that points toward victory.

In Chapter 3, “The Role of Political Parties,” David Dulio and John S. Klemanski examine the evolving role of political parties in the 2016 campaign. They begin with a brief history of parties and populism in U.S. politics. They explain why the recent populist messages from Sanders and Trump emerged and why they were so persuasive to voters in 2016. They chart the popularity of Bernie Sanders’s populism and how he became a serious contender for the Democratic nomination. They show how his surprising success served as a predictive measure of Hillary Clinton’s vulnerability against Donald Trump’s populist messages in the general election. They analyze Trump’s primary election campaign and his anti–party establishment populist approach. In the general election, they show how Donald Trump’s Electoral College victory came in large part due to voter support in the traditionally blue states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. These industrialized blue-collar states had long supported Democratic presidential candidates, but Trump’s populist, antiestablishment, anti-Clinton message effectively shifted these states to the Republican column. They conclude by explaining how the success of populism in the 2016 presidential election has caused both major political parties to examine their own messages. Scholars have debated about whether certain past elections have served as realigning elections, or if there has been a long-term dealignment among voters. They address the question as to whether voters now focus less on party attachment as a voting cue and more on specific policy positions of candidates, individual candidate qualities, or personality politics. The resolution of that ongoing debate will influence the future direction and policy positions adopted by the two major parties in 2018 and beyond.

The redrawing of boundaries for electoral constituencies, redistricting, due to population shifts determined by the U.S. Census every ten years, must occur to equalize populations among state legislative and congressional districts. States remain firmly in charge of redistricting federal congressional districts, though they must adhere to federal legal and constitutional requirements. The newly drawn district boundaries and the subsequent addition or the loss of districts is a key factor in election campaigns. Federal law requires single-member congressional districts of equal population constructed of contiguous territory. State legislatures, commissions, or a combination of legislatures and governors draw the district lines, which have a direct impact on electoral competitive and campaigns.

David Lublin, in Chapter 4, “Elections and the Long Journey into the Redistricting Thicket,” gives a history of the judicial actions on redistricting. He summarizes the evolution and impact of racial redistricting law and discusses the prevalence of partisan gerrymandering. Districts can be drawn by the majority party in each state or by state commissions based on a number of different criteria. All of these approaches have a direct effect on the electoral competitiveness of districts and ultimately campaign strategy. Lublin also discusses partisan gerrymandering and its future as well as the role of commissions in the redistricting process.

Successful campaigns must concentrate their resources on identifying potential voters and ensure that their supporters in the electorate show up at the polls. Campaigns refer to these efforts as the field campaign, the “ground war,” or GOTV. Trump’s campaign had solid turnout in the state that counted. Clinton’s campaign failed to turn out traditional Democratic Party voters at high enough rates in critical battleground states, especially Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. She overperformed in turnout in overwhelmingly Democratic states like California, New York, Massachusetts, Oregon, and Washington. This hurt her in the Electoral College.

2

Campaign Planning and Management

The Key Elements of Campaigns

Anne Caprara

A good campaign is like a good surfer—devoted to constant practice, an understanding of process, and an ability to hold onto the board through a tumultuous paddle-out all so that you can be in the right place at the right time for the right wave. Just like surfing it’s a combination of skill, equipment, hard work and plain old luck.

Campaigns have undergone such massive structural changes over the last two decades that best practices can be almost impossible to keep track of in real time. But, even as the political calendar has accelerated and the money necessary to build and retain a top-notch campaign operation has exploded, certain fundamentals haven’t changed. As campaigns have developed more sophisticated social media and data operations, there has been a renewed emphasis on more traditional electoral tactics that prioritize person-to-person contact.

We will focus here on the key elements of a modern campaign—regardless of size, office sought, or location. All good campaigns have certain things in common. (All bad campaigns share certain elements as well.)

The fundamentals of a good campaign transcend party, candidate, and location. “We do it differently here!” is a common refrain that every campaign professional has heard on the trail, but the truth is, while politics can shift from state to state and town to town, disciplined and professional campaigns mostly look the same.

Additionally, smart political professionals are not partisan in their willingness to learn from opposing campaigns and candidates—and adapt the techniques and technology they see in other campaigns to their own races.

Even President Obama’s vaunted 2012 data operation took cues from the 2004 reelection campaign of George W. Bush:

The Obama leaders not only wanted all the lists to be able to talk to one another, they also wanted people to be able to organize their friends and family members. This was taking a concept introduced in 2004 by George W. Bush’s reelection team — the notion that voters are more likely to listen to people they know than to paid callers or strangers knocking on their door — and updating it to take advantage of new technology, namely the explosion of social media.¹

This chapter will examine the key elements of winning campaigns, as well as outline the common deficiencies seen in losing operations. Understanding both is fundamental to success.

Campaign Management

While most staff positions on a modern campaign have undergone massive change over the last few decades—one job remains immutable: the campaign manager.

Campaign managers are a strange breed of nomadic political entrepreneurs who travel to all corners of the country every two years, refining their skills on ever bigger campaigns. The best ones are part CEO, therapist, political strategist, and comedian. The worst ones lack the ability to create order in chaos and they cater to a candidate’s baser instincts instead of managing them.

The most important quality in a campaign manager is experience doing the job itself. That seems obvious but it’s surprising how often campaigns of all sizes end up with a person with very little experience in the top job. Candidates will choose everyone from their best friend to their business partner to their spouse to run a campaign—often to disastrous ends.

In 2006, state Senator Charlie Wilson of Ohio hired his son to manage his campaign for Ohio’s Sixth Congressional District. Wilson was a strong Democratic recruit for a seat that was being vacated by retiring Congressman Ted Strickland and considered a favorite to win. But Wilson failed to submit the 50 valid constituent signatures that were needed to get on the ballot in Ohio (they submitted 96 signatures but many were from people who did not live in the district and so were disqualified.) The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) had to spend well over $1 million to help Wilson win a write-in campaign.²

A campaign manager should come to the job with experience commensurate with the office being sought. A local city council candidate can afford to hire someone with very little political experience—a campaign for the United States Senate should be led by a person with many years of electoral management behind them.

The campaign manager should be one of the very first hires a candidate makes and should be tasked with interviewing and hiring other senior staff, in consultation with the candidate. The manager should set and negotiate staff salaries, write and manage the budget, approve expenses, and chart the overall strategic direction of the campaign.

Many candidates think that if they hire a brilliant political strategist then they are, by definition, hiring a great campaign manager. But managing a campaign is 10% political strategy and 90% people management. Brilliant political strategy only happens when you have sound staff and budget management.

Modern campaigns are like medium-sized startup businesses where all the capital is raised and spent in under 24 months. A competitive congressional campaign has a budget of anywhere from $1.5 to $3 million. A competitive statewide race can cost upwards of $40 million. Staff sizes range from ten people to over a hundred.³

A campaign manager who has brilliant slogan ideas but has never seen the right side of an Excel spreadsheet and doesn’t understand smart hiring and staff management strategy will be a disaster in the job.

Additionally, successful managers need to be able to hire competent staff who they trust to do their job. Politics tends to attract Type As who want to do everything themselves. Not only is this physically impossible on a campaign; it means that one person is, at best, doing a lot of jobs in mediocre fashion, as opposed to many people excelling in their individual roles.

It’s important that the manager be empowered to oversee all aspects of the campaign and is answerable only to the candidate. Managers should never report to outside consultants who handle media and ad placement, polling, or general campaign consulting.

This can be harder in practice than it is on paper. Managers are often younger and less experienced than pollsters or ad makers. Campaign consultants’ relationships with a candidate can predate the manager. Managers should develop and foster environments where decisions are made in consultation with experts the campaign has hired to help.

Experts often disagree, however, and that’s where the manager becomes invaluable. A good manager can get everyone to row together in the same direction, even when there is internal dissension about a decision.

The candidate must set the precedent that the manager is the ultimate decision maker on the campaign and must trust the manager’s ability enough to not waver in that stance when the manager’s authority is challenged.

Ultimately, good campaign managers are good strategic thinkers and patient people handlers. They can be firm without being rude. They understand the importance of winning the candidate’s trust but also standing up to them when they are wrong. They have good gut instincts but are not so obsessed with being right that they can’t listen to differing opinions and change their mind.

Finally, good campaign managers know how to manage the morale of a team. Campaigns have lofty highs and...