1.1 Overview
The year 2012 can be considered a watershed in Egyptâs history as it came after a revolution that ended the rule of Hosni Mubarak , who had been in power for 30 years. For the first time in Egyptian history, not only in modern history, Egyptians were able to choose their ruler. There had been no form of presidential elections from the first ruler King Menes (3100 BC) taking power until the election of President Hosni Mubarak (2005) which did not follow the norms of democratic elections. Even after the 1952 revolution, Egyptians were not able to choose their president through multi-candidate elections. They were only able to do this through a referendum, where they had to say yes or no to one person, who always became the president.
In 2005, and after huge pressure from different powers in the country, President Mubarak changed article 76 in the constitution which allowed for a multi-candidate presidential election for the first time in Egyptian history. However, this election was widely seen as a façade, as it was already previously known that Mubarak was the one who was going to win. In 2011, the Egyptian revolution took place and for the first time in the history of the country, Egypt witnessed a real multi-candidate presidential election in 2012; where no oneâeven pollstersâwas able to predict the winner.
The period prior to this election and the election result itself showed many surprises and unpredictable results. This indicates that this field still requires some attention by experts and scholars to know how elections work in a country in its transitional phase such as Egypt at that time. For instance, all polls conducted before the elections showed that the competition was mainly between two candidates, the first being Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, who had previously been dismissed from the Muslim Brotherhood. The second frontrunner candidate was Amr Moussa who portrayed himself as a defector from the Mubarak regime. However, the actual results of the first round of the elections showed completely the opposite as the two winners were Ahmed Shafiq, the last prime minister during the Mubarak era, and Mohamed Morsi, the head of the Freedom and Justice Party, the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood. Despite the role of the people in demanding change, the revolutionâs candidate Hamdeen Sabahi came third place. Another feature of the campaigning process is that many candidates refused to use some forms of campaigning. For example, all candidates except Moussa and Aboul Fotouh refused to participate in any form of debates.
Another controversial feature of this election was the winner: Mohamed Morsi, who entered the election by chance, became the president of Egypt. Was this the result Egyptians were looking for? What was the role of campaigning in this result? To what extent did the campaign conduct and its result impact upon the democratisation process in Egypt? These are some of the questions this book will answer.
1.2 Rationale for the Book
This book presents the first analytical study of the levels of professionalism of campaigns in the 2012 Egyptian presidential elections. It provides the story of the five main campaigns by applying the professionalisation index to analyse their structures (hardware) and strategies (software). The book also provides an evaluation of the application of the professionalisation index to nascent democracies, and the impact of campaign professionalism on such democracies.
Due to the novelty of the whole topic, the results of this analysis add significantly to the understanding of campaigning and create an academic base for further studies within similar fragile democratic systems. Furthermore, it should offer campaigners practical guidance when approaching future elections.
This book aims to explore campaign professionalism in the 2012 presidential elections and to what extent this affected the democratisation process in Egypt.
The book will focus on analysing the Egyptian case by answering these main research questions:
- 1.Using professionalisation theory, how was the 2012 presidential election campaigns organised and conducted?
- 2.To what extent did campaign professionalism determine the outcome of the first and second rounds of this election?
- 3.What were the implications of the election campaigns for the process of democratisation in Egypt?
To answer these questions, the book explores the possible implications of professionalism using literature which examines the relationships between professionalisation and democratisation. After that, it applies the professionalisation index to the five studied campaigns by analysing data from a set of semi-structured interviews with the campaign managers and officials which took place during the election in 2012, with some follow-up discussions taking place in 2017. The interviews were conducted with primary figure within each of the campaigns and then verified through interviews with other campaign team members and officials.
Through these interviews, the book explores how the campaigns were designed to raise voter awareness and participation, besides identifying what strategies were used to achieve the campaignsâ aims. The interview questions depended on the professionalisation index, which measures both the strategies and structures of the campaigns. There were two sets of questions: the first set of questions focused on âthe campaign structureâ. It consisted of questions covering size of campaign staff, management style, campaign premises, degrees of externalisation, the differentiation of internal communication structures, the nature and degree of feedback, the degree of opposition research , campaign budget, and the duration of the campaign. The second set of questions assessed the âcampaign strategyâ and consisted of questions focusing on the degree of audience targeting , the degree of narrowcasting activities, the relevance of paid media, the relevance of free media, the relevance of talk shows, the relevance of the internet and social media, the relevance of debates, the degree of event and news management, and the degree of personalisation. The book also used descriptive, analytical, as well as comparative approaches when it came to comparing campaign strategies and structures and understanding campaign professionalism.
1.3 Book Structure
This chapter explains the importance of the 2012 Egyptian elections and gives an overview for the whole book. The chapter highlights why itâs important to study campaigns in order to understand the outcome of the 2012 election as well as the longer-term political situation in Egypt. The chapter explains this by highlighting literature on campaign functions in elections and campaign professionalism (mainly what it means and how to measure it). In addition, it highlights the validity of using the professionalisation index in studying campaign professionalism. The chapter also discusses the relationship between professionalisation and democracy.
Chapter 2 sets the scene by describing the socio-political environment in which the 2012 Egyptian presidential elections took place. The chapter highlights the extent Egyptians were polarised by the time of election and argues that the confusion and mismanagement of the transitional period by all political forces led to flaws in the process of democratisation in Egypt making it difficult for first-time campaigners to work and mobilise voters.
Chapter 3 applies the professionalisation index to each of the five main campaigns separately and analyses their structures and strategies drawing on data from the series of interviews with campaign staff.
Based on that data, Chap. 4 analyses the five election campaigns by comparing and analysing their structures and strategies. By analysing the campaignsâ professionalism, the chapter explores which campaigns were more professional and argues that there was a link between the professionalism of Morsiâs and Shafiqâs campaign and the results of the first round of elections, suggesting that professionalism played an important role in determining the results of the first round of elections. The chapter also explores the limitations of campaign effectiveness; finding levels of professionalism did not play the same role in determining the result of the second round of elections, as there were other determinant factors such as voters resorting to punitive voting.
The final chapter concludes the study by discussing the implications of the levels of professionalism on the democratisation process in Egypt. The chapter concludes that the professionalismâas applied by Morsiâs campaignâhad a negative impact on Egyptâs democratic transition in general as it led Egypt to being trapped in its transitional period, rather than moving to a functional emergent but thin democracy. The chapter also provides an evaluation of the application of the professionalisation index to nascent democracies.
1.4 Democracy and Professionalisation: Definitions and Debate
There are no studies to date on the 2012 Egyptian campaigns. This is the reason why this book depends on literature about campaigns and its relation to democracy from a wider perspective, so building a picture of campaigning in general and then applying that framework to the Egyptian case. This chapter argues that studying campaigns is essential to understanding elections and democracy. The chapter further argues that campaigns play a vital role in elections as they can influence both the process and the outcome of elections, thus influencing the quality of democracy in general. This is due to the functions campaigns play in the election process such as their role in informing, persuading, and mobilising voters (Norris 2002), making them a core feature of modern democracies. This chapter highlights campaign functions and relations to democracy and how campaigns can be studied academically by highlighting well-known frameworks used to examine the professionalism of campaigns. The chapter argues that literature on professionalism provides the most appropriate framework to study campaigns as it allows mapping how any specific campaign adheres to the core features of the postmodern era campaign. The chapter also argues that the professionalisation index, developed to compare campaigning over time and across nations, is the most appropriate framework to study campai...