Autonomous Vehicles and Future Mobility

Pierluigi Coppola,Domokos Esztergár-Kiss

• Publisher: Elsevier
• Year: 2019
• ISBN:
  9780128176979
• Topic: Technologie et ingénierie
• Subtopic: Transport et navigation

Autonomous Vehicles and Future Mobility presents novel methods for examining the long-term effects on individuals, society, and on the environment for a wide range of forthcoming transport scenarios, such as self-driving vehicles, workplace mobility plans, demand responsive transport analysis, mobility as a service, multi-source transport data provision, and door-to-door mobility. With the development and realization of new mobility options comes change in long-term travel behavior and transport policy. This book addresses these impacts, considering such key areas as the attitude of users towards new services, the consequences of introducing new mobility forms, the impacts of changing work related trips, and more.

By examining and contextualizing innovative transport solutions in this rapidly evolving field, the book provides insights into the current implementation of these potentially sustainable solutions. It will serve as a resource of general guidelines and best practices for researchers, professionals and policymakers.

• Covers hot topics, including travel behavior change, autonomous vehicle impacts, intelligent solutions, mobility planning, mobility as a service, sustainable solutions, and more
• Examines up-to-date models and applications using novel technologies
• Contains contributions from leading scholars around the globe
• Includes case studies with the latest research results

1

Autonomous vehicles and future mobility solutions

Pierluigi Coppola; Fulvio Silvestri University of Rome Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy

Abstract

Today’s technological innovations are creating the base for mobility solutions, which, accompanied to cultural and socio-economic changes taking place all over the world, open the door to new mobility scenarios. The challenge of innovation in the transport sector, including road, sea, rail, and air, is represented by automation of vehicles, particularly the automotive, from the viewpoint of demonstration and validation. This chapter presents the state of the art of Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) development outlining the conditions for sustainable mobility solutions and new business models for transport services.

Keywords

Societal trends; Electric vehicles; Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs); SAE automation levels; Shared mobility; Mobility as a Service (MaaS); Autonomous Mobility on Demand (AMoD); Uncertainty

1 Introduction

The latest technological innovations are rapidly and radically transforming the transport sector, creating the base for mobility solutions, which, accompanied to the cultural and socio-economic changes taking place all over the world, open the door to new future scenarios that are still difficult to predict but that are gradually coming to the fore.

Today the challenge of innovation in the transport sector is represented by automation of vehicles. Research and technological development affect all modes of transport (road, sea, rail, and air) and are characterized differently depending on the area of application (urban or suburban, passenger or freight). The most advanced transport industry, from the viewpoint of demonstration and validation, is that of road vehicles (STRIA, 2017). The leading car manufacturers as well as newcomers in the automotive industry (i.e., the major players in the Information Technology (IT) market) expect to commercialize fully Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) by 2030 (TSC, 2017). These will find application in passenger transport, where private mobility and Public Transport (PT) services, such as buses, taxis, and other on-demand systems, will be able to merge into innovative transport alternatives offered by shared mobility (ARUP, 2017). Furthermore it is envisaged that there will be an intense use of automated systems also in freight transport, both for first and last mile delivery in urban areas through autonomous light commercial vehicles (commonly called road drones), and for freight distribution on a national scale with the use of heavy vehicles (adopting solutions of truck platooning and cooperative adaptive cruise control).

This chapter reviews the state of the art of CAVs development outlining the expected impacts of the discussed trends on transport demand and supply, aiming at identifying sustainable solutions and new business models for transport services.

2 Background

In recent years, the transport sector has been severely tested, on the one hand, by driving forces of social, demographic, and cultural changes such as urbanization, population aging, and sharing economy and, on the other hand, by disruptive technological innovations that are encouraging digitalization even in well-established transport industries.

2.1 Socio-economic trends

At present 55% of the World population lives in urban areas; in 1950 the share was 30% and today’s predictions estimate an increase up to 68% by 2050 (UN, 2018). Urbanization is due to a considerable shift of population from rural to urban areas as well as to an overall demographic increase (which is higher in cities). Today the most urbanized regions are North America, Latin America, and Europe, with shares between 74% and 82% of urban residents (UN, 2018). The dramatic increase in the urban population will bring new and growing mobility demand on transport systems that are already at high levels of saturation; it is clear that urbanization, if not adequately addressed, could worsen the issue of traffic congestion.

The phenomenon of demographic aging is pervading throughout the world. In 2050 the global population aged 60 years or older will be twice as much as today’s, both in absolute and percentage terms compared to the overall population (UN, 2017a). The growth of the elderly population will take place in those countries where a demographic decline is expected, but not only there. Currently in Europe the segment of the population aged 60 years and older represents 25% of the total population; it will reach 35% in 2050. Next is North America, in which the older population will increase from 22% to 28% by 2050. Asia and Latin America will double the present ratio, reaching 24% and 25%, respectively. The shift to an aging society, resulting from the increase in life expectancy at birth and the simultaneous decline in fertility (UN, 2017b), will place significant challenges on mobility (to fit elderly transport needs), road traffic safety (to contrast their higher vulnerability as road users), and societal responsibilities (to overcome their possible limitations and disability in order to prevent social exclusion) (Chan, 2017).

Co-working, house sharing, and social shopping are some of the main examples of sharing economy models that have permeated many of those markets that traditionally were based exclusively on individual ownership. A wide transition to collaborative consumption is occurring; people (particularly those of the new generations) are less attracted by property assets, which were often relied on to legitimize social status, and are rather oriented to the use of services. The transport sector is no exception; owning a vehicle does not seem to be more strictly necessary in urban areas where car-sharing services are becoming more and more popular. On the one hand, users are more interested in gaining access to transport services, particularly where they prove to be cheaper and better performing. On the other hand, the automotive sector is experiencing a real internal reorganization; car manufacturers as well as the main leasing and rental companies are rapidly and increasingly proposing themselves as providers of mobility services (ARUP, 2017). This is the case of Car2Go by Daimler, DriveNow by BMW, Zipcar by Avis Budget Group, and Hertz-on-Demand by Hertz as well as other companies not directly related to automotive, such as Flinkster by the German railways and logistics company Deutsche Bahn and Enjoy by the Italian energy company ENI.

2.2 Vehicle technological innovations

The new Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) are stimulating applications for a better and targeted use of vehicles and infrastructure in order to optimize the transport network performance. Digitalization has been made possible by the widespread diffusion of devices for processing, gathering, and exchanging information among users and service providers. Digital and intelligent mobility is enabled by users' smartphones, by in-vehicle localization sensors and telecommunication components, and by infrastructure devices for detecting and monitoring traffic conditions. These altogether create a huge amount of data (big data), which is the primary source for using Artificial Intelligence (AI) in transport, allowing computers to perform activities (such as driving) for humans.

Research in the field of vehicle technological innovation focused on three main areas: electrification, connectivity, and automation. While electrification is already at an advanced state of implementation, connectivity is a mature technology that is little used, and automation is not yet commercialized but has been experimented with in some pilot initiatives (Fulton et al., 2017). In fact, there are already electric vehicles on the roads, equipped with some degree of connectivity (even if exclusively for in-vehicle communications), and with assisted-driving features but with no autonomous driving functions. Considerable support to the diffusion of these technologies can come also from the digitalization of the infrastructure. Future mobility will come when all these technological innovations will work together as a single system, on the same vehicle, revolutionizing the vision of transport as we see it today.

Typically, Electric Vehicles (EVs) refers to vehicles that use energy from their own battery (thus excluding hybrid vehicles). Studies show that EVs bring great benefits for the environment by eliminating local emissions of polluting agents and climate-altering gases, as well as by a significant global decrease of emissions for electricity production, if this comes from renewable sources (Anderson et al., 2014). Furthermore, a reduction in energy consumption can be achieved by the increased efficiency of electric propulsion and direct energy recovery by using advanced braking systems, such as the Kinetic Energy Recovery System (KERS).

In the near future, a rapid diffusion of EVs is going to occur, thanks to several driving forces from the market. Firstly, the persistent differences in price between oil and electricity, and the fall in the purchase costs of a vehicle with electric power. Secondly, the stringent regulations and anti-pollution directives on car emissions are becoming difficult to meet using traditional endothermic-powered cars. Moreover, additional incentives may come from overcoming problems (experienced by first-generation EVs) related to battery life, lack of recharging points, and long recharging time. Research on electrical systems and material experimentations have in fact allowed the development of powerful electric charge accumulators, gradually becoming less cumbersome and with more capacity. In addition, with greater market penetration of these vehicles, a wide diffusion of charging column...