Section 1
Infectious Disease Drivers
Chapter 1
Subject: Emerging Infectious Diseases
Definition: According to a report by the Institute of Medicine (USA), emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are diseases of infectious origin whose incidence in humans has increased within the past two decades or threatens to increase in the future. The maps opposite show the spatial distribution of the predicted relative risk of various categories of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, with green representing lower risk of an EID and red higher risk. The maps are based on an analysis of 335 EID events identified between 1940 and 2004, and the distribution of selected ‘drivers’ of EID events, such as population growth, latitude, and the richness of wildlife species. For this analysis an EID event was defined as ‘the first temporal emergence of a pathogen in a human population which was related to the increase in distribution, increase in incidence, or increase in virulence or other factors that led to that pathogen being classed as an emerging disease’. The maps have been corrected for geographical reporting bias by adjusting for the frequency of the country listed for the affiliation of authors in each article in the Journal of Infectious Diseases from 1973 to 2004.
Patterns and trends: An analysis of the published literature suggests that the frequency of EIDs has increased since the 1940s, peaked in the decade 1980–1990, and declined slightly in the 1990s. The peak in the 1980s can be attributed to the HIV pandemic and the associated identification of a range of opportunistic infections. Another significant proportion of EID events is attributable to known pathogens with new antimicrobial resistance patterns. It is probable that the dissemination of diagnostic technologies and the development of more discriminatory and efficient methods for describing pathogen diversity (e.g. genotyping) has played an important role in the temporal increase in reports of EID events. There is also geographic heterogeneity in the reporting of EID events, with a preponderance of reports from North America, western Europe, Japan, and Australia. Undoubtedly this pattern is largely attributable to better funding and facilities for diagnosis, surveillance, and research, and of a culture of publication. The maps opposite are an attempt to identify future hot-spots of infectious disease emergence based on the distribution of ‘drivers’ that are associated with previous EID events whilst correcting for the geographic bias in reporting of events.
Significance: Emerging infections, whether they are entirely new pathogens, a resurgence of known pathogens, or new drug-resistant patterns, are a serious health and economic threat. HIV is a testimony to the possible health effects of a new pathogen, whilst SARS and influenza A/H5N1 are good examples of emerging diseases with limited health impacts but enormous economic impacts. Antimicrobial resistance is possibly the most significant emerging infectious disease problem now facing us. The health and economic impacts are not well characterized but there are indications that the situation is deteriorating as humans and animals are exposed to an ever-increasing volume and diversity of antimicrobial agents. It is now well recognized that the emergence of new infections is predominantly driven by human activities, whether that be increased contact with wild animals, changes in farming practices, drug pressure, or through disturbance of ecological balances. Biodiversity loss frequently increases disease transmission. In contrast, areas of naturally high biodiversity can serve as a source pool for new pathogens. Much of the research on EIDs is therefore now focused on identifying the specific conditions that drive EID events, monitoring pathogen ecology in putative ‘hot-spots,’ and developing interventions to mitigate the risk of EID events.
Map sources: The Emerging Infectious Diseases map is reproduced with the original data from Jones et al. (2008), with permission.
Key references
Committee on Emerging Microbial Threats to Health, Institute of Medicine Report (1992) Emerging Infections: Microbial Threats to Health in the United States.
Jones KE, et al. (2008) Global trends in emerging infectious diseases. Nature 451: 990–994.
Keesing F, et al. (2010) Impacts of biodiversity on the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases. Nature 468(7324): 647–652.
Morens DM, et al. (2001) The challenge of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Nature 430 (6996): 242–249.
Wolfe ND, et al. (2005) Bushmeat hunting, deforestation, and prediction of zoonoses emergence. Emerg Infect Dis 11(12): 1822–1827.
Chapter 2
Subject: Population
Definition: The maps opposite show the estimated number of people living within national boundaries in 2007 (top) and the number of people per square kilometer of land, the population density (bottom). National populations are generally estimated through intermittent national censuses, which attempt to enumerate all people alive and living in the country on a specified day. The United Nations recommends a census every 10 years. Between censuses, estimates of population are derived by extrapolation, using birth, death, and migration statistics and other survey data. The reliability of population estimates varies considerably, with, at one extreme, Iceland maintaining a full population register, while Somalia last conducted a national census in 1987. Population density at national level hides a great degree of internal heterogeneity, with populations more or less concentrated in cities.
Trends: The population growth rate is closely linked to the level of economic development, with growth rates in the poorest countries being twice that of the developed world. The world population is expected to increase from the current 6.8 billion to over 9 billion by 2050. Most of this increase (roughly the population of Italy every year) will occur in developing countries, with the population of developed countries remaining fairly stable. Over the same period the population living in urban areas is expected to increase by around 2.9 billion; therefore urban areas will absorb all of the predicted population growth over the next 4 decades and also pull in people from rural settings (see Urbanization map). Although rural populations are expected to decline somewhat over coming decades, it is important to note that in Africa and Asia 6 out of every 10 people still live in rural areas.
Population aging is also a significant phenomenon and although the populations of developing countries remain predominantly young, globally the fastest growing age group is those aged 60 years and over and many developing countries face a significant increase in the proportion of their population that is elderly.
Significance for infectious diseases: It has long been argued that war, famine, and disease are the inevitable consequences when population density exceeds the natural carrying capacity of the ecosystem.
“The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race. The vices of mankind are active and able ministers of depopulation. They are the precursors in the great army of destruction, and often finish the dreadful work themselves. But should they fail in this war of extermination, sickly seasons, epidemics, pestilence, and plague advance in terrific array, and sweep off their thousands and tens of thousands.
” Malthus TR (1798) An Essay on the Principle of Population,. Chapter VII, p. 61
Malthus failed, however, to predict the ability of technological, commercial, and social advances to sustain ever-increasing population densities. Although the size and demographic profile of populations influence the infectious diseases that thrive, densely populated countries can be healthy. For health policy makers, a distinction is needed between the risk of infection, which may be greatest in poor rural areas, and the overall burden, which may be greatest in densely populated areas.
Map sources: World Population 2009 data obtained from World Bank and population density data from Gridded Population of the World, version 3 (GPWv3) by the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), available at Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC), at: http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/credits.jsp.
Key references
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2008): World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision. New York.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2010) World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision: Highlights. New York.
Chapter 3
Subject: Urbanization
Definition: Urbanization is an increase in the proportion of people living in urban settings. Urban growth is an increase in the number of people living in cities. If population growth rates are equal in rural and urban areas, urban growth can occur without urbanization. Most changes in urbanization are due to the migration of people into or out of urban areas. Urbanization can also occur if areas become newly defined as urban because of changes in administrative boundaries or definitions of ‘urban’.
Trends: We live in a predominantly urban world: in 2009 the proportion of the global population living in urban settings exceeded 50% for the first time, with an estimated 3.4 billion people living in urban areas, more than the entire global population in 1960. This trend is expected to continue, with urban areas absorbing all of the expected population growth over the next four decades. By 2050 the world urban population is predicted to have incre...