LIEUTENANT GENERAL DOUGLAS LUTE, US Army, director of operations, Joint Staff: [The insurgency was unanticipated. We didnāt expect it. So from the summer of ā03 to sort of the summer or fall of ā05, the American forces, the multinational forces, were going through a major transition internally, from what we thought we were going to be doing in Iraq to what we were actually doing. This was not a counterinsurgency army; we didnāt have a counterinsurgency army. We developed one on the fly, under fire, between the summer of ā03 and the summer of ā05, and thatās not pretty, and there were a lot of mistakes made, and the transition was not smooth.
GENERAL JOHN ABIZAID, US Army, commander, US Central Command: I was a deputy commander during the invasion of Iraq, and after the invasion of Iraq I became the CENTCOM [United States Central Command commander, and this was about three months afterward, and we were in the process of pulling forces out on the orders of the secretary of defense. We were going to leave a very small, residual force behind, and it was clear that that was not going to work, so we had to reorganize the force.
JOHN HANNAH, assistant to the vice president: In my own view, you know I distinctly recall in late 2003, certainly after the UN bombings in August of 2003, after the bombing of the head of the Supreme Council [for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim, his assassination by car-bombing in Najaf, around that same time in 2003. One has a sense that things are not going well, that something is emerging here in terms of the insurgency that looks like it could be a strategic threat to the American effort in Iraq, if and only if, because by that time already, it seemed to me at least, that you had a steady drip, drip, drip, of American casualties, virtually every single day or every other day; one, two, three Americans being killed, and that just seemed to be that over time, would be entirely corrosive of the effort. It wasnāt what the American people had been prepared for, and I didnāt think you would be able to sustain that over time in terms of achieving our objectives in Iraq. I think that only sort of escalates, and that feeling of unease continues throughout 2004, 2005. Thereās always a hope in that period, that the political progress that we are seeing being made, in terms of handing over sovereignty back to the Iraqis in 2004, in terms of the series of elections we held through the end of 2005, that that political process is going to be the thing that kind of stanches the insurgency and allows us to begin building that vision of a more representative, inclusive Iraq that is going to be an ally of the United States in the broader region and the broader war on terror. And yet, I think thereās a lot of unease in the government, that as each of those milestones passes and the insurgency only appears to worsen, that that in fact is not the case, that there is a fundamental problem of first order, in getting on top of the security situation in Iraq and understanding what the insurgency is and how it might be defeated. And until you can provide Iraqis, at least the vast majority of the population, that fundamental sense of security, our ability to marginalize the insurgency and really proceed forward to develop that model of a representative Iraq is not going to get very far.
RICHARD CHENEY, vice president: [There were arguments being made thatā¦ there was an inconsistency between what you needed to create a democracy and the role of the military, having a strong military. From the perspective of that view, that the [Iraqi military was a negative, the military was a force not for good, but something you had to make certain didnāt interfere with the political process domestically, inside Iraq. Some of the early debates, as we look back on them, began to take place around that subject. We ended up with the belief, for example, as I recall, in the interior ministry, and if we just go through and get rid of the bad guys at the top, the Baathists, the Saddam Hussein lovers, pull them aside, then youād have a bureaucracy there and you could get good people in charge, and that unit would begin to function the way it should in the government. It turned out that wasnāt valid. So there was an inherent conflict to some extent, and when we got into this debate of what comes first, the military or the civilian, and then if you go back to the original arguments, I think some of those occurred in that first year, and in the immediate aftermath of that, with this debate that wasnāt really much of a debate, the [Iraqi military ended up being basically disbanded and the troops went home. At the same time, weāre trying to make progress on the political front, but they were viewed as inconsistent or incompatible somehow, and we had to get around that obviously, if we were going to before we could solve the problem.
PHILIP ZELIKOW, counselor of the Department of State: President Bush was passionately interested in what was going on in Iraq, cared deeply about it. He would chair NSC meetings on Iraq virtually every single week, without fail. He was asking Meghan [OāSullivan, assistant to the president and deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan to write him, like, daily notes, like what happened in Iraq every day. Heās intensely curious about whatās going on.ā¦ But despite scores of presidential meetings on Iraq, these readingsāthese meetings, by ā05, had acquired a stylized, routine quality.ā¦ How can you meet on Iraq forty or fifty times and not discuss these basic issues? And then you have to kind of understand the stylized and routinized way the process was working then, in whichā¦ you do the briefing on all the things weāre doing, and all the little tactical things that go with that, which can easily burn up all your time. And the dog barks and the caravan moves on.
HANNAH: I guess the thing that perplexes me more than anything else is probably just how long it took, when there was obviously, again, this unspoken feeling amongst a lot of smart people inside of the US government, not to mention outside of the US government, who just knew in their bones that things were not going right in Iraq, in that 2004, 2005, early 2006 period, and yet it took, you know at least two years, if not longer, to begin righting that ship of state and begin taking the decisions that led to the surge and the necessary course correction. You know, figuring out why that took so long is, like I said, a bit of a mystery to me.ā¦ Iām speculating, but based on some knowledge, that there was, in the administration, and I think properly to some extent, a strong desire and urge to defer to our commanders in the field. In particular, somebody like General Abizaid was, I think, a really strongly respected figure who, if you asked any of those principals, John Abizaid understood the Middle East in general and probably understood Iraq specifically, far better than anybody else sitting in that Situation Room. He was the man who had the responsibility of trying to carry out the presidentās orders and achieve the presidentās mission in Iraq. These guys were the experts at the art of warfare, and therefore, I think there was, properly, a strong urge to give them a lot of authority and to stick with them and back them up.
My view is that that was the wrong strategy, and yet taking on the military commanders in that way, I think has got to be a difficult thing for a president to bring himself around to doing. Again, even as you have this track of the security situation deteriorating so steadily and dramatically over time, you did have milestones being achieved at some level, on the political front, and that allowed you to kind of attach yourself to those things and always believe that just the next milestone. Get us through this political transition to Iraq, to a permanently elected parliament and prime minister, and everything on the security situation will become much more manageable and weāll then begin to get on top of that because the politics will have moved to the place where it itself will begin to become a major factor undermining the insurgency and taking the energy out of the insurgency. And so it just took a matter of time. The US government is this huge bureaucracy, and fighting a war is no different, perhaps even more intense, than any other sort of normal events, and trying to turn that around when you have that much at stake and that many people involved in the process, I just think became a very difficult thing to do.
ABIZAID: I went to Secretary [of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and the president, and I saidā¦ it was my opinion that we were in a long war situation and that there would be no early victory anytime soon, that it was going to be a long, hard military slog, but the real work that had to be done was political work.ā¦ There was a lot of consternation about whether we called it āinsurgency,ā not on my part, but on the part of many of the political leaders. But I thought it was important to make sure the political leadership had an idea that was going on.ā¦ I donāt think it was a surprise to them, they just didnāt want to hear it. Thatās one of the great benefits of being a military commander; your job is to give military advice, and you have to tell them what you think. You try to do it privately, and Secretary Rumsfeld was very unhappy with me when at a press conference I used the term āinsurgency.ā And then we went through a period of back-and-forth over whether it was an insurgency or not, and finally I said to him, āLook, Mr. Secretary, weāre fighting an insurgency. A counterinsurgency. You can call it what you want to call it, but I have to fight it the way our troops know to fight it, and itās a counterinsurgency, and those are the tactics, techniques, and procedures weāre using, and Iām not going to change how I talk about it.ā They were using terms like ādead-enders.āā¦ This was really not so much the president as it was Secretary Rumsfeld.ā¦ When I told the president I thought it was a long war, I laid out a briefing for why I thought that. I told them I thought there was a struggle here that just wasnāt about Iraq; it was about the struggle against Islamic extremism. And he had me go to all of our allies and explain to them the long-war strategy. No one liked it. Itās not that they disagreed with the premise, but they didnāt like the idea of a long war.