Wind Power in America's Future

20% Wind Energy by 2030

U.S. Department of Energy

• Publisher: Dover Publications
• Year: 2013
• ISBN:
  9780486161464
• Topic: Technik & Maschinenbau
• Subtopic: Maschinenbau Allgemein

Wind power represents a critical component of the strategies to reduce air and water pollution and to combat the effects of global climate change. Further, the development of wind farms promises to provide jobs and income to farmers and rural economies throughout the nation. This survey covers the history of the U.S. wind industry: how it works, its geography, and its impact on the environment.
A collaborative panel—including members of the U.S. Department of Energy—explored a modeled energy scenario in which wind would provide 20 percent of the nation's electricity by 2030. This official 2008 report by the panel estimates impacts and discusses specific needs and outcomes in the areas of technology, manufacturing, transmission and grid integration, markets, siting strategies, and potential environmental effects.

Chapter 1.

Executive Summary & Overview

1.1 INTRODUCTION AND COLLABORATIVE APPROACH

Energy prices, supply uncertainties, and environmental concerns are driving the United States to rethink its energy mix and develop diverse sources of clean, renewable energy. The nation is working toward generating more energy from domestic resources—energy that can be cost-effective and replaced or “renewed” without contributing to climate change or major adverse environmental impacts.

In 2006, President Bush emphasized the nation’s need for greater energy efficiency and a more diversified energy portfolio. This led to a collaborative effort to explore a modeled energy scenario in which wind provides 20% of U.S. electricity by 2030. Members of this 20% Wind collaborative (see 20% Wind Scenario sidebar) produced this report to start the discussion about issues, costs, and potential outcomes associated with the 20% Wind Scenario. A 20% Wind Scenario in 2030, while ambitious, could be feasible if the significant challenges identified in this report are overcome.

This report was prepared by DOE in a joint effort with industry, government, and the nation’s national laboratories (primarily the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). The report considers some associated challenges, estimates the impacts, and discusses specific needs and outcomes in the areas of technology, manufacturing and employment, transmission and grid integration, markets, siting strategies, and potential environmental effects associated with a 20% Wind Scenario.

20% Wind Scenario: Wind Energy Provides 20% of U.S. Electricity Needs by 2030

Key Issues to Examine:

• Does the nation have sufficient wind energy resources?
• What are the wind technology requirements?
• Does sufficient manufacturing capability exist?
• What are some of the key impacts?
• Can the electric network accommodate 20% wind?
• What are the environmental impacts?
• Is the scenario feasible?

Assessment Participants:

• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)
  • –Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE), and Power Marketing Administrations (PMAs)
  • –National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
  • –Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab)
  • –Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)
• Black & Veatch engineering and consulting firm
• American Wind Energy Association (AWEA)
  • –Leading wind manufacturers and suppliers
  • –Developers and electric utilities
  • –Others in the wind industry

In its Annual Energy Outlook 2007, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that U.S. electricity demand will grow by 39% from 2005 to 2030, reaching 5.8 billion megawatt-hours (MWh) by 2030. To meet 20% of that demand, U.S. wind power capacity would have to reach more than 300 gigawatts (GW) or more than 300,000 megawatts (MW). This growth represents an increase of more than 290 GW within 23 years.¹

The data analysis and model runs for this report were concluded in mid-2007. All data and information in the report are based on wind data available through the end of 2006. At that time, the U.S. wind power fleet numbered 11.6 GW and spanned 34 states. In 2007, 5,244 MW of new wind generation were installed.² With these additions, American wind plants are expected to generate an estimated 48 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of wind energy in 2008, more than 1% of U.S. electricity supply. This capacity addition of 5,244 MW in 2007 exceeds the more conservative growth trajectory developed for the 20% Wind Scenario of about 4,000 MW/year in 2007 and 2008. The wind industry is on track to grow to a size capable of installing 16,000 MW/year, consistent with the latter years in the 20% Wind Scenario, more quickly than the trajectory used for this analysis.

1.1.1 SCOPE

This report examines some of the costs, challenges, and key impacts of generating 20% of the nation’s electricity from wind energy in 2030. Specifically, it investigates requirements and outcomes in the areas of technology, manufacturing, transmission and integration, markets, environment, and siting.

The modeling done for this report estimates that wind power installations with capacities of more than 300 gigawatts (GW) would be needed for the 20% Wind Scenario. Increasing U.S. wind power to this level from 11.6 GW in 2006 would require significant changes in transmission, manufacturing, and markets. This report presents an analysis of one specific scenario for reaching the 20% level and contrasts it to a scenario of no wind growth beyond the level reached in 2006. Major assumptions in the analysis have been highlighted throughout the document and have been summarized in the appendices. These assumptions may be considered optimistic. In this report, no sensitivity analyses have been done to estimate the impact that changes in the assumptions would have on the information presented here. As summarized at the end of this chapter, the analysis provides an overview of some potential impacts of these two scenarios by 2030. This report does not compare the Wind Scenario to other energy portfolio options, nor does it outline an action plan.

To successfully address energy security and environmental issues, the nation needs to pursue a portfolio of energy options. None of these options by itself can fully address these issues; there is no “silver bullet.” This technical report examines one potential scenario in which wind power serves as a significant element in the portfolio. However, the 20% Wind Scenario is not a prediction of the future. Instead, it paints a picture of what a particular 20% Wind Scenario could mean for the nation.

1.1.2 CONTRIBUTORS

Report contributors include a broad cross section of key stakeholders, including leaders from the nation’s utility sector, environmental communities, wildlife advocacy groups, energy industries, the government and policy sectors, investors, and public and private businesses. In all, the report reflects input from more than 50 key energy stakeholder organizations and corporations. Appendix D contains a list of contributors. Research and modeling was conducted by experts within the electric industry, government, and other organizations.

This report is not an authoritative expression of policy perspectives or opinions held by representatives of DOE.

1.1.3 ASSUMPTIONS AND PROCESS

To establish the groundwork for this report, the engineering company Black & Veatch (Overland Park, Kansas) analyzed the market potential for significant wind energy growth, quantified the potential U.S. wind supply, and developed cost supply curves for the wind resource. In consultation with DOE, NREL, AWEA, and wind industry partners, future wind energy cost and performance projections were developed. Similar projections for conventional generation technologies were developed based on Black & Veatch experience with power plant design and construction (Black & Veatch 2007).

To identify a range of challenges, possible solutions, and key impacts of providing 20% of the nation’s electricity from wind, the stakeholders in the 20% Wind Scenario effort convened expert task forces to examine specific areas critical to this endeavor: Technology and Applications, Manufacturing and Materials, Environmental and Siting Impacts, Electricity Markets, Transmission and Integration, and Supporting Analysis. These teams conducted in-depth analyses of potential impacts, using related studies and various analytic tools to examine the benefits and costs. (See Appendix D for the task force participants.)

Wind Energy Deployment System Model Assumptions (See Appendices A and B)

• The assumptions used for the WinDS model were obtained from a number of sources, including technical experts (see Appendix D), the WinDS base case (Denholm and Short 2006), AEO 2007 (EIA 2007), and a study performed by Black & Veatch (2007). These assumptions include projections of future costs and performance for all generation technologies, transmission system expansion costs, wind resources as a function of geographic location within the continental United States, and projected growth rates for wind generation.
• Wind energy generation is prescribed annually on a national level in order to reach 20% wind energy by 2030:
  • –A stable policy environment supports accelerated wind deployment.
  • –Balance of generation is economically optimized with no policy changes from those in place today (e.g., no production tax credit [PTC] beyond 12/31/08).
  • –Technology cost and performance assumptions as well as electric grid expansion and operation assumptions that affect the direct electric system cost.
• Land-based and offshore wind energy technology cost reductions and performance improvements are expected by 2030 (see tables A-1, B-10, and B-11). Assumes that capital costs would be reduced by 10% over the next two decades and capacity factors would be increased by about 15% (corresponding to a 15% increase in annual energy generation by a wind plant)
• Future environmental study and permit requirements do not add significant costs to wind technology.
• Fossil fuel technology costs and performance are generally flat between 2005 and 2030 (see tables A-1 and B-13).
• Nuclear technology cost reductions are expected by 2030 (see tables A-1 and B-13).
• Reserve and capacity margins are calculated at the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) region level, and new transmission capacity is added as needed (see sections A.2.2 and B.3).
• Wind resource as a function of geographic location from various sources (see Table B-8).
• Projected electricity demand, financing assumptions, and fuel prices are based on An...

Table of contents

• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Dedication
• Table of Contents
• Table of Figures
• List of Tables
• Abbreviations and Acronyms
• Chapter 1. - Executive Summary & Overview
• Chapter 2. - Wind Turbine Technology
• Chapter 3. - Manufacturing, Materials, and Resources
• Chapter 4. - Transmission and Integration into the U.S. Electric System
• Chapter 5. - Wind Power Siting and Environmental Effects
• Chapter 6. - Wind Power Markets
• Appendix A. - 20% Wind Scenario Impacts
• Appendix B. - Assumptions Used for Wind Deployment System Model
• Appendix C. - Wind-Related Jobs and Economic Development
• Appendix D. - Lead Authors, Reviewers and Other Contributors
• Appendix E. Glossary
• Engineering