The Aral Sea Basin

Water for Sustainable Development in Central Asia

Stefanos Xenarios, Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt, Manzoor Qadir, Barbara Janusz-Pawletta, Iskandar Abdullaev

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2019
• ISBN:
  9780429791062
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Ciencias físicas
• Subtopic: Hidrología

This book offers the first multidisciplinary overview of water resources issues and management in the Aral Sea Basin, covering both the Amu Darya and Syr Darya River Basins.

The two main rivers of Amu Darya and Syr Darya and their tributaries comprise the Aral Sea Basin area and are the lifeline for about 70 million inhabitants in Central Asia. Written by regional and international experts, this book critically examines the current state, trends and future of water resources management and development in this major part of the Central Asia region. It brings together insights on the history of water management in the region, surface and groundwater assessment, issues of transboundary water management and environmental degradation and restoration, and an overview of the importance of water for the key economic sectors and overall socio-economic development of Central Asian countries, as well as of hydro politics in the region. The book also focusses on the future of water sector development in the Basin, including a review of local and international actors, as well as an analysis of the current status and progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals by Basin countries.

The book will be essential reading for those interested in sea basin management, environmental policy in Central Asia and water resource management more widely. It will also act as a reference source for decision-makers in state agencies, as well as a background source of information for NGOs.

Chapter 8 of this book is freely available as a downloadable Open Access PDF at http://www.taylorfrancis.com under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND) 4.0 license.

1

Introduction

Stefanos Xenarios, Dietrich Schmidt-Vogt, Manzoor Qadir, Barbara Janusz-Pawletta, Iskandar Abdullaev and Vladimir Smakhtin

The Aral Sea Basin encompasses a unique array of diverse ecosystems, from alpine forests and glacial lakes in its eastern parts to steppes and deserts in the west. The Basin includes two large transboundary rivers—the Amu Darya and Syr Darya—and is home to some 60 million people. The hydrological boundaries of the Aral Sea Basin enclose nearly the entire territory of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, and to a lesser extent Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and the northern fringes of Afghanistan (Figure 1.1). The Amu Darya is formed by the Pyanj and Vakhsh Rivers originating in the Pamir Mountains of Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and then flows through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, discharging into the Aral Sea in Uzbekistan. The Syr Darya is formed in the Tien Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan by the confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya Rivers, and then flows through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, also discharging into the Aral Sea in Kazakhstan. All the above countries except for Afghanistan were formerly part of the Soviet Union and are commonly referred to as the Central Asia region.

All of the countries are located at the core of the Eurasian landmass, blocked off by mountain ranges (except for northern Kazakhstan) that prevent or hinder the inflow of humid air from the south, thus creating the conditions for an arid to semi-arid continental climate. A distinctively uneven water allocation exists within the Basin between the water-producing uplands of Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and the water-consuming lowlands of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. More than 80 per cent of water in the Basin originates in the mountains of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan, but more than 80 per cent is consumed in the lowlands of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan.

Until the conquest of Central Asia by Tsarist Russia and the subsequent establishment of the Soviet Union, traditional agricultural practices were serving local economies through farming in the southern parts and through nomadic pastoralism in the northern parts of the Basin. During the Soviet Union period, land use in the Basin was transformed fundamentally from traditional to commercial agriculture based on irrigated cotton monoculture. The excessive use of freshwater sources resulted in an unparalleled environmental disaster, for which the drying-out of the Aral Sea became emblematic. Before 1961, the average water surface area of the Aral Sea was close to 68,000 km² and the estimated volume of water in the sea was 1,064 km³. The expansion of irrigation caused the Aral Sea to shrink to 17 per cent of its original surface area, and 9 per cent of the original water volume (Figure 1.2).

The collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the independent countries of Central Asia led to a change from centralized to inter-state transboundary water management. Despite this change, the intensive water withdrawal for agriculture continued until the present, or may even have been further aggravated by cross-border competition. The Central Asian countries are among the most water-intensive economies in the world, with mean annual water withdrawals of 2,200 m³ per capita and nearly 90 per cent of water used for irrigation in all the five countries.

The gradual desiccation of the Aral Sea has caused the North Aral Sea (or the Small Aral Sea) to fragment into several parts. As part of Kazakhstan’s efforts to save the northern parts of the Aral Sea, the Kok-Aral dike and dam were constructed in 2005, leading to a gradual replenishment (Figure 1.3). The southern part of the Aral Sea suffered the most from diminishing water inflow, with only 60 km³ of water left. Some initiatives have been taken by Uzbekistan through the establishment of a Multi-Partner Human Security Trust-Fund for the Aral Sea region (MPHSTF) in 2017 under the auspices of the United Nations to reverse the desiccation trend.

Currently, the technocentric approach to managing water through large-scale hydropower and irrigation schemes goes hand-in-hand with the perception of water resources as a natural capital for economic development. The securitization of water as a national endowment has often resulted in disputes and conflicts between upstream and downstream countries, prioritizing their divergent agricultural and energy needs.

Figure 1.1 A map of the Aral Sea Basin showing various features that are referred to in this book

Source: Compiled by Hamid Mehmood; UNU-INWEH

Figure 1.2 A satellite image of the Aral Sea on 21 August 2018. The yellow boundaries demarcate the approximate shoreline in 1960

Source: NASA Earth Observatory, https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/aral_sea.php.

New challenges are posed in the Basin by global environmental change, with major impacts on water resources, hydropower, food production and the natural environment in the region. Geopolitical challenges are also emerging through the consortium of the Eurasian Economic Union, led by Russia, the Belt Road Initiative, driven by China, and economic initiatives of Western allies in the region, which may stimulate economic growth but may also exert pressure on natural resources.

Figure 1.3 The dynamics of water level in the Aral Sea. Combined time series (blue) of the water level in the Aral Sea (1960–1985), Big Aral (1986–2006) and Western Sea (2007–2014); and the water level of the Small Aral (1986–2014; green).

Source: UNU-INWEH, compiled based on data from CAWa Regional Research Network, www.cawa-project.net/

This book offers analytical insights into geophysical, hydrological, environmental and socio-economic challenges pertaining to water management in the Aral Sea Basin. Regional and international experts with experience from different disciplines present, for the first time, a comprehensive review of water resources opportunities and constraints in the Basin in one volume. Each chapter is a standalone component of the book, and all chapters are complementary. Each chapter lists, upfront, its key messages—the most substantial points to take home.

Chapter 2 presents the historical perspective of the water management evolution in the Basin from pre-historic times until today through milestones that changed the route of water management over time. The shift from subsistence and small-scale farming to industrialized and water-intensive agriculture during Soviet times is described, and the current transition to national water management and more integrated approaches is explained.

Chapter 3 provides an overview of the status and trends in surface water resources, covering specifics such as observational networks in the Basin, human-induced impacts on river flows, uncertainty associated with the climate change impacts and the status and developments in water infrastructure and use.

The role of groundwater management is presented in Chapter 4 by underlining that although water demand in the Basin is increasing, the overall groundwater consumption remains relatively low when compared to surface water use. The seasonal peaks of groundwater abstraction for irrigation in summer are noted and the risk of soil salinization due to groundwater depletion is stressed. The chapter also addresses the increasing deterioration of groundwater quality due to disintegrating drainage systems and salt depositions in aquifers.

Chapter 5 examines the role of hydropower as an underutilized energy source and the economic stimuli to realize its potential in the region. The hydropower potential of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan could improve energy security in both countries, while the agricultural needs of downstream countries could be preserved through multi-purpose dam constructions. The dilemma of large versus small hydropower facilities is underscored by addressing the drawbacks and comparative advantages in each case.

Environmental aspects, mainly reflected in land and water degradation in the Basin, are reviewed in Chapter 6. Dramatic economic annual losses of about US$3 billion are attributed to land degradation with direct and indirect effects to human livelihoods. There are currently technologies available to reverse land use management, which also have synergetic effects in the improvement of water management. The return on investments in sustainable land use and water management could offer up to a fivefold profit within a period of 6 to 30 years, depending on the type and scale of investment.

Chapter 7 covers the socio-economic aspects pertinent to water resources management in the Basin, with a focus on the role of agriculture in national economies and rural livelihoods. Attention is given to the water shortages mainly in semi-arid and arid areas, which are ascribed mainly to poor management coupled with intra-regional and inter-sectoral competition for water. The lack of a coordinated use of water for agriculture is presented as an outcome of the transition from commercial to individual farming practices after independence in 1991.

The status and impacts of climate change on the alpine cryosphere in the Basin are reviewed in Chapter 8. The alpine cryosphere, including snow, glaciers and permafrost, plays a crucial role in the water balance of the Basin. There is evidence that most cryosphere components are close to a melting point, which could temporarily increase water availability in July and August for the next 25–30 years. The situation will probably reverse once the glaciers will have shrunk below a critical threshold unless higher precipitation trends compensate the loss. More monitoring stations, especially in high altitudes, are needed for better assessment of natural hazards associated with cryosphere changes in the Basin.

The transboundary complexities of water management in the Basin are analyzed in Chapter 9, with reference to the broader economic and geopolitical changes in the Eurasian region. The needs for long-term regional strategies for transboundary water management, rather than an opportunistic approach, and for reform or replacement of the current regional mechanisms are emphasized. The participation of downstream countries in the development of large-scale hydropower projects upstream would be an essential element for the mitigation of hydro-political frictions in the Basin.

Chapter 10 focuses on the local and national institutions and policies governing water resources management in the Basin by providing an overview of the current situation in each Central Asian country. The water reforms currently undertaken by each country are outlined and the approaches and initiatives adopted towards a more coordinated water management within and between the countries are presented. The chapter acknowledges that technical and financial support of the authorities and organizations implementing water reforms is imperative, and that communities and water users at the local level should be engaged actively.

The international context of sustainable water management in the Basin is presented in Chapter 11 by reviewing the initiatives adopted by multilateral organizations, individual countries and other development partners. The impact of international support, although considerable, seems to be lower than expected due to limited understanding of local conditions and lack of coordination, while the socio-political context in Central Asia complicates the matter. Capacity building through longer-term programmes with a focus on local development should also consider the nuances of water politics in the region.

Chapter 12 is devoted to the future of water resources in the Basin. It points to potential pressures on water consumption due to economic and population growth in Central Asia by making it clear that piecemeal and short-term planning can no longer resolve existing and future needs and challenges. Evidence-based policies supported by sound research...

Table of contents

• Cover Page
• Half Title
• Series Page
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• Chapter Photos
• Notes on Authors
• Foreword
• 1 Introduction
• 2 History of Water Management in the Aral Sea Basin
• 3 Surface Water Resources
• 4 Groundwater Resources
• 5 Hydropower
• 6 Environmental Degradation
• 7 Water for Agriculture and Other Economic Sectors
• 8 The Status and Role of the Alpine Cryosphere in Central Asia
• 9 Transboundary Water Management
• 10 Local and National Institutions and Policies Governing Water Resources Management
• 11 International Actors and Initiatives for Sustainable Water Management
• 12 The Future of Water Resources
• 13 Implementing Water-Related Sustainable Development Goals
• Index