Sustainable cities and regions
So where will we place the next 3 billion people on this planet this century? This is the key question that is challenging minds from global leaders to local planners. Given current trends most of the expected nearly 10 billion people will live in cities, and most of those cities will be on the coast, at least in the first half of the twenty-first century. With that, the impacts of climate change, if not managed now, will result in coastal retreat, uninhabitable areas due to drought, flooding, fire and air pollution and potentially quite different forms of settlements. Some cities may even go underground. The scale and rate of change ahead is massive and at times almost overwhelming to policy makers and urban managers. Key facts and figures on the extent of change are found throughout this book with a critical few highlighted as follows to provide you with an insight into the very big challenges ahead:
- Much of the urban growth will occur in Asia with estimates that the Asian urban population will increase from 1.689 billion in 2015 to 2.753 billion by 2050, an extra 1 billion urban dwellers than present (ADB 2017, p. 10).
- UN Habitat estimates that nearly 900 million are living in slums representing a 28 per cent increase from nearly 700 million in 1990, with an estimated extra 1.6 billion requiring adequate affordable housing by 2025 (UN Habitat 2016a, p. 48).
- It is estimated that âa third of the urban residents in Asia and the Pacific are without access to adequate shelter, safe drinking water and sanitation, and clean energyâ (UN Habitat and ESCAP 2015).
- Cities are the major contributors to global carbon emissions, accounting for 75 per cent of world final energy use and 76 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions (Bai et al. 2016).
- The World Health Organization (WHO) currently estimates that 6.7 billion out of the 7 billion people in the world are living with air pollution exceeding world health standards (United Nations 2016).
But does it have to be this way?
This book is a small contribution to the global discussions on our urban future in the context of social, economic and environmental change. As an urban and regional planner of many years, there is a central focus on better planning of our cities, coasts and regions in the context of climate change. My professional and academic background brings a very applied approach, and as such I hope this book will be more accessible to a wider audience. It is a global book that explores both the global north and the global south. It does not pretend to solve all problems but rather provide an insight into possible pathways forward with the intention of providing a window of optimism into a more sustainable urban future.
For the purposes of this book, at the outset the key terms are defined in the following way. âSustainable developmentâ is the well-known âBrundtlandâ Report definition of âdevelopment that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needsâ (WCED 1987). âUrbanâ is defined in the broadest sense covering the extent of urban development rather than by any municipal boundary or formal city jurisdiction. âUrbanisationâ is defined as âthe process by which more and more people leave the countryside to live in citiesâ (Cambridge Dictionary). âCity-regionâ refers to the hinterland of urban areas that have direct social, economic and environmental connections. âRegionâ is defined as a larger area that encompasses both urban and non-urban. As this book is primarily focused on cities and regions, it acknowledges the vision highlighted by the United Nations New Urban Agenda for a sustainable future â âa shared vision for a better and more sustainable future â one in which all people have equal rights and access to the benefits and opportunities that cities can offer, and in which the international community reconsiders the urban systems and physical form of our urban spaces to achieve thisâ (UN Habitat 2016b, p. 6). In developing sustainable pathways, the social and economic dimensions are critical and highly connected to environmental sustainability. In other words an increasingly unequal society is no foundation for a healthy planet. This book is a snapshot in time with the primary focus being on the first half of the twenty-first century with some historical context and some looking forward.
It is very much an applied book that seeks to bring together a great deal of global, regional and local activity in research, policy and practice in a way that hopefully provides practical insight into possible future pathways for our cities and regions. In that sense it is not intended as a traditional academic text nor a practice guide but more one that connects the dots for those seeking a better understanding of these issues in a contemporary context adapting to place. It also draws upon personal experience as a practicing planner for over three decades and more recently as a researcher and teacher at university. In doing so it includes my own reflections and insights in addition to the range of research sources. Hopefully at times this brings the discussion to life in a more personal way.
This book is also about the value and positive contribution of urban and regional planning, a key plank in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and a cornerstone of the New Urban Agenda. However, the benefits of urban and regional planning are perceived quite differently around the world. UN Habitat identifies urban planning and design as core to managing future urban growth. UN Habitat Executive Director Joan Clos places strong emphasis on urban design, particularly the relationship between public space and the built environment: âthis is the art and science of building cities â and until we recover this basic knowledge, we will continue to make huge mistakes ⌠[h]uge mistakesâ (Herd 2016). There has been very significant pressure in some nations with long histories in urban planning to âcut the red tapeâ to deliver more affordable housing and so on. The consequences of this are beginning to show with congested cities, infrastructure deficits, pollution and built environment disasters, for example the Grenfell Tower fire in London, June 2017. As the Royal Town Planning Institute (UK) states:
Neglecting the potential benefits of planning is of particular concern in the current era when governments and communities across the globe are attempting to deal with the threat of climate change and the impacts of globalisation, among other major challenges.
(RTPI 2016)
There have been various phases in urban planning during the twentieth century to meet the demands of growing cities. Interestingly it began with health concerns during the early 1900s. One hundred years later planning is returning to health-related issues with the impacts of urbanisation and climate change. As the complexities of cities and city-regions have increased, so has the profession and learned academy of planning â no longer the province of a narrowly defined town plan solely in the hands of an engineer or planner as well described by Abercrombie during the early twentieth century:
Town and Country planning seeks to proffer a guiding hand to the trend of natural evolution, as a result of careful study of the place itself and its external relationships. The result is to be more than a piece of skilful engineering, or satisfactory hygiene or successful economics: it should be a social organism and a work of art.
(Abercrombie 1933, p. 27)
Planning over the last hundred years has been through significant phases in the developed world. The UK presents a good illustration. These phases have included the garden city movement in the early 1900s to the birth of a planning profession in the UK (1950s) to a suite of increasingly sophisticated approaches to city planning â new towns, strategic plans, new urbanism and, more recently, sustainable development and collaborative planning. A recent report on âDelivering the Value of Planningâ by the Royal Town Planning Institute has identified five key phases: (i) pre-war planning; (ii) post war consensus (1947â1979); (iii) entrepreneurial planning (1979â1990); (iv) planning for sustainable development (1991â2010); and (v) austerity, localism and economic growth, 2010âpresent (RTPI 2016). In tracking the changing role of urban planning in the development of cities, the Royal Town Planning Institute (RTPI) report highlights the significant role of planning pre-war and post-war with the introduction of the Planning Act (1947) and the New Towns Act 1946, the substantial public housing program and, during the 1960s, the demand for public participation and the introduction of local planning. This is contrasted with the last 50 years that has seen an increasing role for the private sector and town planning downgraded to that of âdevelopment controlâ. A resurgence of the value of planning is seen early twenty-first century with the sustainable development agenda only to be tempered by the current phases of austerity and deregulation (RTPI 2016). In summary the role and contribution of urban and regional planning is not universally understood or accepted across developed and developing nations, and its implementation varies between countries and over time.
Significant challenges remain if we are to create more sustainable cities and regions in the future. Urbanisation is expected to continue well into this century and with that environmental and social change. Technology is already transforming our cities, including communications, smart networks and smart infrastructure. Transport alone is shaping up to be one of the areas of major transformation with rapid transport systems, electric and solar cars, car sharing and driverless cars. Rapid transit systems are advancing to meet the massive demand from our megacities. There is also an increasing emphasis on active living through cycling and walking responding to both urban congestion and health issues.
This is the challenge of planning: on the one hand responding to immediate community needs and on the other taking a longer-term view in planning for more sustainable urban and regional futures. Urban and regional planning together with urban design has the potential to be the glue that connects the dots in a contemporary urban fabric that provides a healthy environment and community. Planning highlights the spatial dimension and, with that, not only the nuts and bolts but also the inequities found within and between our cities. Add to this mix the projections for climate change and the challenges of the twenty-first century seem at times insurmountable. Designing and planning our cities must consider rapid technological change, urbanisation at a global scale, infrastructure demands, threats to biodiversity and ecosystems, climate change, governance, affordability, health and community engagement.
This book is about providing potential âpathwaysâ for more sustainable cities and regions, recognising these challenges and embracing the opportunities. As I often say retaining the best of the past and embracing the best of the future. And with planning, context always matters: global, national, subnational, regional and local.
Urbanisation and climate change
The major global challenges of urbanisation and climate change are central to this book. Planning for an urban future, the impacts of a warmer environment and more extreme events will have extensive implications for the future planning and urban design of urban settlements and their wider regions. As most of the worldâs cities lie on the coast, there are also major implications for coastal planning and development. Add to this the fact that cities consume three-quarters of global energy use. Therefore, the future planning and management of cities, coasts and climate change are inextricably linked. These connections are discussed fully in Chapters Two and Three, including the recent suite of global agreements acknowledging these challenges. Much of the focus of future planning will necessarily have to be on the developing world where the major urban growth is expected, particularly in China, India and Africa, over coming decades.
Throughout the book there are three principal guiding frameworks â the United Nations SDGs, the Paris Climate Agreement, and the New Urban Agenda (UN Habitat 2016b). Highly relevant to these are the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015â2030 and the Small Islands Partnerships Agreement 2016 often dealing with the poorest and most vulnerable communities. The rights, well-being and participation of Indigenous people around the world are integrated into these global agreements. Implementing this suite of global agreements centred on the long term in the context of climate change is the challenge for all of us now and into the future.
Planning for the urban growth of our coastal cities with the impacts of climate change is a special challenge. The cumulative risk of cities expanding into marginal lands at risk of coastal flooding from extreme coastal events (e.g., hurricanes and cyclones) and sea level rise is increasing. It is estimated âeven if adaptation investments maintain constant flood probability, subsidence and sea-level rise will increase global flood losses to US$60â63 billion per year in 2050â (Hallegate et al. 2013). As cities continue to expand into megacities along the seaboards of China, India and the United States, the risks will only increase. Furthermore, the contribution of glacial melt appears to be adding to the problem (Church et al. 2017). However, this is only one of the climate risks to urban settlements as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Report 5 (2014) highlighted:
In urban areas climate change is projected to increase risks for people, assets, economies and ecosystems, including risks from heat stress, storms and extreme precipitation, inland and coastal flooding, landslides, air pollution, drought, water scarcity, sea level rise and storm surges (very high confidence). These risks are amplified for those lacking essential infrastructure and services or living in exposed areas (2.3.2).
(IPCC 2014)
Although climate change is potentially the greatest risk to urban communities, it is important to remember that it is not the only one. Social economic change with urban growth will pose challenges to sustainable urb...