Future Courses of Human Societies

Critical Reflections from the Natural and Social Sciences

Kléber Ghimire

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2018
• ISBN:
  9781351039123
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Social Sciences
• Subtopic: Sociology
• Index: Social Sciences

The future as a field of inquiry, debate or forecasts continues to flourish. However, this book differs from existing literature in several important ways. It is not another publication on future scenarios guided by a linear technological fix - nor is it simply a volume of new statistics on economic, demographic or geopolitical developments. Rather, Future Courses of Human Societies explores and builds a general framework for the long-term evolution of human societies.

Drawing upon a wide range of insights from across the social and natural sciences, the authors of this title present original, exploratory methodological and analytical approaches to examining the future. Encouraging the reader to deepen their knowledge and encourage critical thinking, three themes are considered in their complexity and multi-dimensionality: technological innovations; future 'progress'; and the critical aspect of organizing collective life in the future. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies which have embraced a relatively short time-span, this text incorporates perspectives from the immediate to the distant future, extending to several centuries and even millennia.

An interdisciplinary and internationally comprehensive volume, Future Courses of Human Societies is a key source for students and researchers interested in fields such as future studies, technology in society, interdisciplinary learnings on social and natural sciences and future economic and political evolutions.

Chapter 1

Future as an object of inquiry

An introduction

Kléber Ghimire

Knowledge is attached to the past, wisdom belongs to the future.

An Amerindian proverb¹

There is a vast sprawl of interest over the conception of future. This interest is old, yet much of the associated methodological structure and body of knowledge continue to remain quite shaky. How do we define future, especially the long-term future? What does this symbolize? Is this altogether technologically impelled? What scope is there for new forms of economic progress and fairer societal changes to occur? What prospects are there for innovative forms of democratic representations and emancipatory thoughts to emerge? Bringing together ideas, information and insights from a broad spectrum of social and natural sciences, we seek to provide a contextual framework for discussing some of these questions in a candid and disinterested manner.

Methodological considerations

Seeking to describe the future trajectory of human societies is more difficult than one would realize. In the first place, does the future exist? It is necessary to bear in mind that certain societies do not have a notion of the future as such. For instance, the Inuit peoples from the Arctic regions of Greenland, Canada and Alaska believe in the prolonged present time, without the past, nor the future (Goody, 2012, p. 22). Within the religious and philosophical traditions of Hinduism and Buddhism in India, time is an eternal factor turning indefinitely in succession linking the past, the present and the future (Daniélou, 1992, pp. 39–40). Many languages around the world do not have clearly formulated future tenses (ancient Greek, Burmese, Finnish, Indonesian, Japanese). At the same time, no one can unequivocally deny that the future does not exist. Naturally, what the future will be like is entirely a different matter. Human societies may prosper, regress or even see their partial or complete elimination due to extreme social outcomes or natural catastrophes. Even in this latter, worst scenario, one cannot help but to admit that the future is still there, despite it being a terrible one. This distinction that prevails between the “time ahead” and the “upcoming prospects” needs to be acknowledged. More accurately than in English, in French, for example, these notions are expressed in two (distinct yet at times interchangeable) words: futur and avenir. The first is generally meant to be a chronological order, which ensues the present and will transpire anyway. The second is about certain outcomes conditional to momentous societal events, natural hazards or public courses of actions. As such, if considered in the first sense, the future is clearly a “fact,” be it promising or appalling.

Even accepting that the future is a fact of time sequence surely to come, this “fact,” nevertheless, remains purely imaginative. The future is neither visible nor tangible. Max Weber at the beginning of the twentieth century wrote that the “social-scientific interest has its point of departure, of course, in the real” (emphasis in the original) (Weber, 2011a, p. 74). What he meant by “real” is the historical and contemporary manifestations of concrete experiences or factors. But recognizing that future courses are uncertain and highly variable, is it really possible to characterize the long-term changes in social and economic lives according to this principle? The question has long been debated. On the one hand, the argument has been that the future can be sensed, even delineated, by such means as thoughtful discernments and predictions. While, on the other hand, the future is seen to be completely elusive, beyond any logical scrutiny. In Greek intellectual tradition, Thales de Miletus (625–585 BC) is, for example, attributed with predicting an eclipse (Heath, 1981, p. 137), as well as successfully foretelling, by virtue of his ability to grasp astronomy and calculations, a good harvest of olives a season in advance (i.e., in the winter when olive trees have not even sprouted) (see Aristotle, 1993, p. 125). In contrast, some three centuries later, Epicure (342–270 BC) considered that future conjectures were simply “myths” because the true causes of particular realities could only be obtained through observing the principles and their related qualities (Epicure, 1994, p. 189).

In regard to what Epicure said, observing the tenets and the merits of future happenings is clearly not possible, as no future occurrences can be determined in advance, nor can they be observed in any distinct fashion. The image of likely future events can obviously be created, albeit this being perfectly hypothetical. In some ways, evoking the prospective events is very much like trying to recall and make sense of the dreams that we have had the night before. We may have certain memories of images or the succession of movements, but telling a complete story with full details and lucidity is often a difficult job.

Here perhaps is one fitting example. During 2015 and 2016, in anticipation of writing this introductory text, the author circulated a short questionnaire to an undergraduate class at his university (Yokohama City University, Yokohama, Japan) seeking students’ views on future economic prospects in selected regions stretching up to the year 5000.² He then rapidly analyzed the results, just to find out that many of the responses given by the students, despite a great deal of willingness on their part, were fundamentally ordinary, much influenced by what they had heard on the popular media: Africa cannot uplift economically because it has far too many poor people, combined with a low level of education and infrastructures; Asia is economically imposing, while Europe and North America are declining; Russia and the former Soviet republics have a dwindling population and elites are corrupt; Latin America has problems of crime and poverty. Their thoughts reflect essentially the prevailing dynamics of the contemporary period, even though the questions were concerned with the distant future. The possession of an extensive knowledge on the world economy or different regions by undergraduate students is obviously much expected. What is more, making sense of the future, especially the long-term future, is a complicated matter, as this requires some grasping of the time periods to come and selecting and interpreting of individual events and their possible aftereffects with a degree of structure and logic.

Notwithstanding these complexities in portraying the future, myriad tools and methods exist with the aim of trying to know or tell the upcoming events in individual or collective lives. Some of these are practices specific to certain traditions: interpreting everyday luck based on how many birds one sees first thing in the morning (Ancient Roman belief), whether the first client that comes in the shop buys goods or not (widespread custom in many Arabic countries) or a black cat crossing the path (Iran, China, India and many other countries). On the other hand, hand reading, using playing cards, interpreting animal behaviors and the like are widely common across many countries (Attali, 2015, pp. 34–60). Similarly, observing the sky, either in a superstitious manner or by applying more rigorous astrological learning, has been a well-known practice since the ancient times in Babylon, China, India and Mesoamerica. As for the more recent periods, science-fiction writing and movies have proven to be a powerful tool in creating various images of the future, while at the same time greatly influencing the general public mind. The futurology was particularly a fashionable domain in the U.S.A., the Soviet Union and France in the 1950 and 1960s. Apart from the technological acceleration, government and business funds became readily available to investigate future trends and make forecasts in such areas as the economy, demographic changes, resource consumptions, technological evolutions and geopolitics. Certain authors believed that a new scholarly discipline was “on the verge of being created, one that cuts across the older boundaries of social sciences” (Huber, 1971, p. 341).

The phenomenon of the future as a field of study, debate or speculation continues to thrive. Overall, the past and recent interests in this field have generated a number of specialized techniques of inquiries. These include: economic and demographic planning, computer modeling, simulations, scenario projections and opinion polls. Additionally, various viewpoints, foresights and anticipations of scientific experts are considered to be an important technique to gathering information, ideas and discernments on the future evolution of human societies.

By and large, many research and publication efforts on prospective or future studies, both within social and natural sciences, are concerned with the basic question of how to propose an applied perspective. This has led to developing models and databases aimed at making expeditious predictions or forecasts, much of which are confirmed to be frequently incorrect given the complex and changing nature of human societies. Furthermore, this work has tended to encompass a relatively short time horizon: in microeconomics and finance, this is less than three years (Granger, 2012, p. 324); a new book on world economic perspectives with a time span of 100 years is rather an exception (Palacios-Huerta, 2013). In general, population and strategic studies take a longer period, although rarely more than 100 years. Likewise, the bulk of the studies linked to technological forecasting by natural scientists cover a short time span, usually a few decades. Frequently linked to and, at times, directly financed by public, industrial or commercial entities, these studies are required to be demonstrable or tangible, able to provide advice to their benefactors. As a rule, this confines these studies to a more immediate future, or makes them less inclined to deal with complex notions or evolutions. Finally, there is the domain of science-fiction literature, which in general tends to take a longer time perspective, at times extending to several centuries. While some of the science-fiction writings and films heavily draw on scientific theories and discoveries, the vast majority of them are essentially entertainment-oriented, concentrating on fantasy, mystery, horror, military and spy stories. After all, it is not for nothing that the term “fiction” is attached to this branch of future exploration.

We advocate in this work that there can be no simple projections or prescriptions, if studies and analyses on the future phenomena are to be pertinent. Some of the methods associated with the economic and demographic planning, computer modeling and expert opinions may be useful as background information for understanding the underlying debates. Occasionally, they may “have performative consequences” in alerting authorities or the public at large (Urry, 2016, p. 2). However, they cannot be considered as being an adequate methodological principle or benchmark. Being able to develop statistics and sometimes reliable predictions over short periods of time does not necessarily mean that a methodological construct or soundness is inherently there. Admittedly, if I go to see a fortune-teller, she or he can predict quite perfectly many things surrounding my life trajectory, future concerns or chances, simply deducing from my age, how I present myself, how I speak and what I say. In a word, the information generated and the extrapolations made through many these methods can at best be fragmentary if not totally defective.

On the other hand, the argument that all knowledge must derive from direct observations, experimental tests and empirical data has no sense with regard to the examination of future natural and social circumstances. With the concern that acquired knowledge is absolutely certain, these methods remain the norm within natural sciences, namely physics, geology, chemistry, biology, engineering. Also, “these practices of the natural sciences constitute the standards to which the social sciences are obliged to confirm” (Gordon, 1991, p. 636). It is easy to see that, not only are there no future facts or images to observe, but, in addition, they cannot be experimented.

To be more precise, in this book, we have no pretention of generating any empirical information, or of making any specific predictions or recommendations. Besides, we aim to purposefully assess the long-term future stretching towards coming centuries and even millennia. The key methodological obstacle is that, in matters of future studies, there exists no verifiable physical element or happening that can be observed upon which truth can be established. How can one hope to create clear definitions, methods of sample selections and establish factual data on imaginary and eternally shifting situations? This task becomes even more complicated when the intent is to shed light on the long-term future. Seeking to construct a credible empirical corpus would make this even more complicated and shaky. It is precisely for these reasons that we believe a qualitative methodological approach directing the work towards understanding the key issues involved and providing explanations and abstractions is more fruitful. On the surface, this method may appear to espouse overgeneralization away from factual elements. But in actual fact this is rather fitting to our purpose, as we seek to introduce more freely the various useful notions, theories, classification orders, trends and consequences that are central to examining the long-term future. All in all, this work has the essential character of raising and examining vital questions, reasoning, deepening knowledge and encouraging critical reflections.

Guided by this malleable methodological logic and orientation, we propose to undertake, first, a serious and elaborative discussion on the topic of technological determinism, namely regarding the claim that technology will necessarily and completely modify the future course of humanity. This will be followed by a critical assessment on future processes of modernization and economic progress potentially affecting the mass of humanity. Finally, the significance of future politics, ethics and utopias is examined. Overall, the goal here is to comprehend the long-term evolution in human societies in their complexity and multi-dimensionality. Clearly, ambiguity and uncertainty of the issues concerning notions or themes of technological determinism, modernization, progress, politics, ethics and utopias in the future are such that methods of computer simulations, scenario-building, extrapolations and projections have little value. In addition to this changeability, many of these issues are plainly multi-facets, to which there can be no quantifiable, statistically grounded or expedient answers. In contrast, an explorative method combined with open and informed assessments has the potential of enriching ideas, analyses and debates on the future courses of human societies.

A future predetermined by technology?

Glancing at the current literature on future studies, one gets the impression that the future direction of humanity is all about technology. The technologically predetermined arguments are everywhere. Yet, this was hardly the case when futurology was a sphere of considerable academic and policy interest in the 1950s and 1960s. For example, one of the pioneering books in this area completed in the late 1960s, The Sociology of the Future, edited by Wendell Bell and James Mau, makes no reference at all to any trends towards future technological evolutions, although there is some discussion on the human mastery of materials and forces of nature in the past (Bell and Mau, 1971, pp. 10–11).³

Why then the current spur in thinking that technology will completely modify the future course of the humanity? It is true that, in recent years, an important advancement has been witnessed in technological innovations in a number of areas. One such area is the development of information and communication technology, especially the Internet. Biomedical research is another notable field. Some scientists believe that in the last few decades there has been acceleration in both the quantities of discoveries made and the ability to accumulate scientific knowledge. They also believe in a rapid technological progress in the future. Theoretical physicist and futurist, Michio Kaku writes that, by the year 2100:

Computers, silently reading our thoughts, will be able to carry out our wishes. We will be able to move objects by thought alone, a telekinetic power usually reserved only for the gods. With the power of biotechnology, we will create perfect bodies and extend our life spans. We will also be able to create life-forms that have never walked the surface of the earth. With the power of nanotechnology, we will be able to take an object and turn it into something else, to create something seemingly almost out of nothing. We will ride not in fiery chariots but in sleek vehicles that will soar by themselves with almost no fuel, floating effortlessly in the air. With our engines, we will be able to harness the limitless energy of the stars.

(Kaku, 2011, p. 11)

Another physicist and mathematician, Freeman Dyson, calls the future the “Age of Wonder” in which technological innovations, specifically those ensuing from biology “might create an abundance of new flowers and fruits and tress and birds to enrich the ecology of our planet,” thus making it “beautiful as well as fertile, hospitable to hummingbirds as well as to humans” (Dyson, 2009, cited in Brockman, 2011, p. ix).

Several chapters in this volume include an extensive focus on the recent technological innovations and their evolving future trends. These texts bring to light various perspectives: future of physics, science and technology (Fukai, chapter 2), energy issues for future societies (Capiglia, chapter 3), nanotechnology development (Micheletto, chapter 4) and 3D printing associated with a variety of manufacturing technologies capable of creating objects from a digital design (Ripamonti, chapter 5). The chapters exploring the different social aspects and forces at work also seek to bring in plentiful ideas and reflections on the rationality and consequences of emerging technologies. In all these discussions, both the well-founded positive as well as potentially negative upshots of technological innovations are stressed from multiple facets.

Having said this, it will be inaccurate to suggest that all the authors in the volume view the nature and scale of technological development in the same fashion, including the ensuing future benefits and drawbacks. Differing research approaches and interpretations are perceptible, depending upon their disciplinary origins and philosophical postures. There is one aspect, nevertheless, upon which they seem to all agree, that is the uncertainty surrounding the configuration of technological development and its possible impacts. Given the enormous methodological difficulties that are associated with it, the authors feel incapable of or unwilling to venture into pinpointing any particular evolution process, and this even for the near future. This uncertainty is all the more palpable when it comes to the consideration of distant and far-off periods.

One crucial issue here is the ambiguity on the very nature of scientific inquiry and i...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title Page
• Copyright Page
• Table of Contents
• List of tables
• List of contributors
• Preface
• 1. Future as an object of inquiry: An introduction
• 2. Physics, science and technology in the future
• 3. The evolution of future societies with unlimited energy supply?
• 4. Nanotechnology and future technological evolutions
• 5. 3D printing: A new industrial revolution?
• 6. Technology, work and social conflictuality
• 7. Economic progress and civilizational changes in the far-off future
• 8. On democracy and technology in the long term
• 9. Ethics and laws of the future
• Index