Managing Complexity: Earth Systems and Strategies for the Future

Walter R. Erdelen, Jacques G. Richardson

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2018
• ISBN:
  9780429816949
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business Strategy
• Index: Business

Managing Complexity: Earth Systems and Strategies for the Future introduces and explores systems and complexity in relation to near-synchronous world and environmental problems. These relate to but are not limited to water, biological diversity, worldwide climate change, trade and conflict, global migration and the quest for sustainable development. Complemented by discussion of the new era of the Anthropocene, its many manifestations, and Earth system properties such as planetary boundaries and tipping points this book offers practical suggestions for how a sustainable future for humanity can be realised.

Specifically discussed in Managing Complexity: Earth Systems and Strategies for the Future are innovation, education and capacity building, application of the natural and social sciences and new paths towards sustainability based on industrial development and engineering, as well as in diplomacy and foreign aid. The book's conclusions discuss the ambitious yet vital reforms the authors propose as routes to a sustainable existence. This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of sustainability, sustainable development and complexity theory.

1 Introduction

Setting the scene

This book’s title has three integrated components, complexity, system and strategy. The authors apply these terms by keeping them in mutual context, here defined. Strategy is an overall plan for estimation, organization, and implementation of action according to circumstances. In his book of 1982, Science sans conscience (best translated as Knowledge without Conscience), sociologist Edgar Morin referred to system as concept and to complexity as paradigm. Morin has pioneered in introducing the complexity phenomenon to social scientists, educators and philosophers (see e.g. Morin 2001). We believe that his terminology should stand.

A system is a regularly interacting or interdependent group of items forming a unified whole. By use of the term of Earth systems, we include the systems conceived by Homo sapiens and put to its use. Every system has spatial and temporal boundaries, surrounded and influenced by its environment, described by its structure and purpose, and expressed by its function(s). System, implying movement or action, embodies probably universally the cause-and-effect relationship.

The term system derives from the Greek σύστημα (suste¯ma): a “whole concept made of several parts or members.” The word “system” derives from the Greek “sunhistanai” which means “to place together.”

As Fritjof Capra observed in The Web of Life (1997), “a system has come to mean an integrated whole whose essential properties arise from the relationships between its parts” and that “systems cannot be understood by analysis” but “only within the context of the larger whole.” This upsets the Cartesian paradigm that, in complex systems, the behavior of the whole can be understood entirely through the properties of its parts.

We find systems almost everywhere: In culture and economics, logic, information theory and computer-related models, in numerous other scientific disciplines, management. We refer, moreover, to organic systems in medicine, to complex or conceptually formal and non-formal systems, to subsystems, meta-systems and even systems of systems as well as hybrid systems. Sufficiently trained in mathematics, your authors prefer not to wonder what lies on either side of a complexity equation’s equal sign.

Evidence of complexity and its effects intrigue us immensely. We exclude debate on complexity theory by what researchers D. Chu, R. Strand and R. Fjelland stressed in an earlier treatise, “Theories of Complexity” – namely, “that whatever definition one might one day agree on, contextuality and radical openness are essential features of complexity. Both properties are clarified by means of […] example and implications for a future theory of complexity” (see Chu et al. 2003).

Applying a systemic view seems most appropriate for this book’s chapters relating to Earth, climate, water, biodiversity, the UN, diplomacy, education, science, innovation, politics, migration, trade, the military and philosophy.

Complexity (and complex systems)

Second, complexity. This alludes to something with two or more parts interacting with each other in multiple ways and creating a high order of emergence, an idea commonly referred to as “greater than the sum of its parts.” In complex systems, “emergent properties at any level must be consistent with interaction specified at the lower level(s)” (Holland 2014). Also emerging at the time were human-made, truly complex systems for application in information theory, supersonic flight, aerospace exploration, instantaneous telecommunications and remote medical therapy.

A familiar quotation states, “There is no absolute definition of complexity, there is only consensus that there is no agreement about the definition of what complexity means.” What is considered complex or simple is relative and changes with time. What is complex can be typified, nevertheless, through a number of different but rigorous approaches to the observation. Complexity, including networks (as perceived through analysis of nodes-and-links arrangements) may lead to seemingly extreme disorder (chaos theory).

There is agreement that complex systems may be unique in their individual attributes, yet have many interconnected components. There does not exist, however, a universal definition of a complex system. It is nevertheless possible to use, in addition to mathematical equations, narrative and methods allowing identification, design, exploration and interaction among such systems – and these appear throughout the present volume.

Complex systems may be further characterized through their self-organization into patterns, chaotic behavior (small shifts in initial conditions give way to large changes), fat-tailed behavior (rare events occur more frequently than would be predicted from a normal or bell-shaped distribution), adaptive interaction (interacting agents modify their strategies diversely as experience accrues), and emergent behavior (Holland 2014).

The authors seek to familiarize concerned readers with the particular nature of some systems, both natural and human-made, their interrelationships and results as well as (often) second-order consequences. Citing scores of practical cases, the authors describe especially utilitarian measures together with algorithms for the handling of specific problems. Treatment is interdisciplinary, intercultural and international in scope. We introduce to the non-scientific reader the new geological era of the Anthropocene.

Among the themes selected are major issue challenges: water management, biological diversity, climate change, public security, migration, foreign relations, innovation and planning for the future. The prevention of incapacitating war is treated by drawing on major lessons from recent history.

Within disciplines or other broad sweeps of human endeavor, this book reflects a multidisciplinary approach, differing from the mode in other books on procedural complexity. There is emphasis on the intervening role of Homo sapiens, whose agency is often at the root of large-scale obstacles or constraints.

Existing books on complexity concentrate on popularization for general and younger readers, but are suitable for university-bound readers. Theories on complexity, as we have suggested, may exceed empirical accounts. Pedro Ferreira of MIT turned a seminar on complexity theory into a valuable volume, Tracing Complexity Theory. Elsewhere, Jens Jäger and his colleagues have put complexity to work on, for example, marketing-oriented value networks. Journals specializing in systems and complexity will help the reader satisfy his or her curiosity about particular complications.

Our clientele comprises generally educated adults who are required to recommend or make decisions, propose policy, plan and apply strategy or are simply curious to learn about the condition of our planet, its interaction with the human species and our combined future. The last aim mentioned leads the reader to grasp not only what can be done about what lies ahead but realistically what has been achieved in terms of organization contrived since the UN Conference on Environment and Development (the “Earth Summit”) held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

Complexity by selected themes

Complexity is part, therefore, of life’s entire dynamic model. We emphasize here, and repeat later, that all its possibilities cannot be treated in a single volume. Is the system we call democracy, for instance, limitless in its development, or inherently hobbled by systemic fragility? System advantages and shortcomings may be counterbalanced, or lapse into puzzling inertia. In response to varying pressures, natural and human systems may thereby function well or poorly.

Complexity is recognizable yet difficult to define. It cannot be measured, nor necessarily be the cause of wonder, frustration or reaction. The authors, avoiding higher mathematics and grand hypotheses, note that complexity has been the object of numerous theories during the past century. They present an amalgam of systems typifying how nature works, uniting or dividing humanity. Humans react more and more to nature’s ways, in the era that specialists have named the Anthropocene. One result is that, as the ”superiors” among Earth’s many living things, humans are now dominating all biota and even the planet’s own systems.

The authors take their views beyond analysis. They present solutions, especially regarding education, scientific research and technological advance. They explain the means proposed, globally through guidance provided by the UN system, confronting head-on (for example) climate change and sustainable development with pragmatic algorithms to minimize complexity.

Climate change prevails, the world over, tomorrow as today. It is the boldest challenge to us all. It means facing the future with humility, the best of our cerebral potential, and perseverance. All these defiances, complications in themselves, lead the authors to plead Save System Homo sapiens!

Not forgotten are activities in which contest and competition abound: industrial initiative and innovation, political policy, ethical concerns springing from egotism and corruption, the pressures of international relations and the strategic roles of military action. These spheres teem with complexity, with which humanity strives to cope by calling upon enquiring cognition, good sense and patience.

Systems and complexity – historical remarks

The brief history of systems approaches and thinking that follows can at most be a sketch of a highly diverse transdisciplinary development involving many outstanding personalities and scientists. Early roots of systems thinking date back to the ancient Greek philosophers, and the later Renaissance and Romantic periods.

Science in the 20th century revealed that analyses or analytical thinking do not lead to an understanding of living systems, not even physical systems (e.g., classical physics vs. the “new physics” including the full structure of the atom, quantum mechanics, statistical causality).

We speak of a “Gestaltproblem” in the sense of the Austrian philosopher Christian von Ehrenfels. The German term “Gestalt” was introduced into the English language and reflected what is commonly referred to as “the whole is more than the sum of its parts.” This thinking triggered the movement of “Gestaltpsychologie.” In parallel the new discipline of ecology – the term was coined by the German biologist Ernst Haeckel – emerged, creating notions such as food web, ecosystem and biosphere, ultimately culminating in the Gaia concept or hypothesis (Lovelock 1995).

The term or concept of a network was intimately associated with early ecological thought and led to new models at all levels of biological organization. The science of networks was born, so well-illustrated in Albert-László Barabási’s book Linked (Barabási 2003). In nature, ultimately, networks interact with networks. We speak of nested, non-hierarchical or – as in particular in ecosystem ecology – hierarchical systems (overview in O’Neill et al. 1986).

During the first half of the 20th century the Russian researcher Alexander Bogdanov (“Tectology;” published 1912–1917) and the Austrian biologist Ludwig von Bertalanffy developed what is now known as General Systems Theory. This was followed in the late 1940s and 1950s by Norbert Wiener’s and others’ work in the new field of cybernetics (Wiener had coined the term), commonly defined as the science of control and communication of humans, other living organisms and machines.

Terms such as feedback loop and input/output have since enriched our vocabulary. With the availability of powerful computers new areas such as artificial intelligence and robotics were included in modern cybernetics. Ilya Prigogine, famous for his dissipative structures, benefiting from new mathematical methods available for the study of complexity, continued what Bertalanffy had already worked on: a new thermodynamics of open systems. Thermodynamically, living organisms may indeed be seen as open systems.

Complexity theory or non-linear dynamics are “mathematical manifestations” of complexity. As pointed out and further discussed by Capra and Luisi (2016), “Complexity theory is not a scientific theory, but rather a mathematical theory.” Relationships and patterns form the backbone of this new branch of mathematics, as illustrated by terms such as strange attractors in chaos theory and fractals of fractal geometry. Complexity theory has proven a tool highly useful in many fields such as organizational change and learning, management including knowledge management, market dynamics (overviews, e.g., in Gleick 1987, Mandelbrot 2008, Senge 1990). A thought-provoking paper of the early 1990s was titled “Chaos in Ecology: Is Mother Nature a Strange Attractor?” (Hastings et al. 1993). Our new powerful computers have allowed us not only to solve non-linear equations (“numerically”) but also to visualize complex systems and their behavior. Fractal geometry and chaos theory have indeed led to a reexamination of the concept of complexity itself. As Capra and Luisi (2016) put it, “The understanding of pattern is crucial to understand the living world around us, and that all questions of pattern, order, and complexity are essentially mathematical.”

Complexity and systems, or “revisiting” this book’s philosophy

Complexity does not offer new, methodical approaches to analyzing complex systems nor does it penetrate scientific and other theories of systems, complexity and related terminology. Rather, the book explores exposure of the human species to complex systems in diverse contexts. Emphasis is on pressing challenges to critical needs.

Discussion of a select number of themes is meant to illustrate the dilemma of today’s global society: The major obstacles of our time cannot be understood in isolation; they are systemic – i.e., interconnected and interdependent, and at the same time our worldviews may be outdated in an urbanized, overpopulated and highly interconnected world. The new worldviews may (need to) be holistic and ecological. A change of paradigms is required, possibly more radical than the Copernican revolution. We need a new kind of thinking, “systemic thinking...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Contents
• Foreword
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• List of abbreviations and acronyms
• 1 Introduction: setting the scene
• 2 The Anthropocene and planetary boundaries: conditioners of sustainable development
• 3 Foresight and innovation: searching for the right future
• 4 Education: towards universal understanding
• 5 Science: the complexity of searching the truth
• 6 Industry, engineering, further complexity: steam engines and more
• 7 Philosophia moralis: systems stretched to the breaking point
• 8 Water: simple matter of special complexity
• 9 Biological diversity: bountiful Mother Nature
• 10 Global climate change: humanity’s supreme challenge
• 11 Diplomacy and foreign trade: weaving the web of international intercourse
• 12 The military: risk management-plus, not perversity
• 13 Migration: when exit becomes exodus
• 14 Sustainable development: Homo sapiens’ Holy Grail
• 15 Risks, new departures, global solutions: challenges of a complex frontier
• Further reading
• Index