Part I
Methodological Issues in Respect to Defining, Measuring and Evaluating Tourism Carrying Capacity
Chapter 1
Sustainable Tourism and Carrying Capacity: A New Context
Harry Coccossis
Tourism, Impacts of Tourism and Tourism Carrying Capacity
Tourism is a complex socioeconomic phenomenon based on the growing needs of modern societies for recreation and leisure and has become a major economic activity worldwide and a priority field in policy making at local, regional, national, supranational and international level. It is the result - and a cause - of wide sweeping changes in modern societies with far-reaching consequences for both developed and developing economies (Vellas, 2002). Its spatial extent, in the past involving a few world regions, is becoming increasingly global reaching even far distant places.
International tourism has tripled in 25 years (1975-2000) and according to recent forecasts (WTO, 2001) it will continue to grow, more than doubling in the next twenty years (around 2020). Europe is a primary destination for tourists as it concentrates about 60 per cent of international arrivals (403.3 million in 2000) at global scale and in spite of new destinations emerging around the world it is likely to continue to represent the largest tourist market. Contemporary estimates foresee a doubling of tourist arrivals in European destinations in the next twenty years or so (WTO, 2001).
The spectacular growth of tourism has brought its potential to the attention of policy makers, but also the problems it generates. Tourism as a complex of economic activities has the advantage of having multiple linkages to a wide range of other economic sectors and activities, thus having the potential to act as a catalyst for economic development due to its eventual multiplier effects. At national level it contributes to the balance of payments, but also provides employment and investments. At a local and regional level it offers opportunities for employment and income spurring regional and local economic development, which might be unique for many small and distant places.
An ever-growing number of countries, regions and local communities around the world compete to attract tourism and secure its multiple benefits. The last few decades have brought ample evidence of a proliferation of policies to develop tourism. In the majority of cases such efforts are sectorally driven in the sense that they focus on a single economic activity perspective with little if any concern over cross-sectoral issues, which in the case of tourism are important (for example in relation to agriculture and fishing, transport, construction, finance and banking services, etc.). Public policies for tourism often focus on stimulating tourism by also providing the essential conditions for tourism growth (such as infrastructure, training, promotion, regulation of services, etc.). To a large extent this orientation reflects the early developing stage of tourism. As tourism destinations grow and mature there is increasing concern with managing the impacts of tourism.
Tourism often has significant impacts on the environment, social and economic structures and dynamics, as well as on culture and lifestyles. However not all of tourism's impacts are always beneficial. There can be negative effects on demographic characteristics, social structures and relations, economic activity structures and sectoral dynamics, societal values and attitudes, culture, built environment and land use, natural and cultural heritage, environmental resources, and so on. Not all of the impacts attributed to tourism are due to tourism alone as there are often indirect effects (through the other activities and sectors influencing society, economy and the environment) which might be more important or other broader transformations and processes (such as globalization, mass culture, modernization, etc.), which may be triggered by tourism, as a fast-growing activity with multiple linkages. Tourism, as a dynamic and growing activity, competes with other activities and sectors for labour, investments, infrastructure, land, water, energy and other resources. Growth and competition often lead to displacement and dominance, sometimes leading to 'monoculture', abandonment and risks. The negative impacts of tourism might be quite significant for some areas depending on their size and tourism's relative importance and growth. Sometimes the negative impacts from tourism might have negative feedback effects on the tourist activity itself, particularly when it affects the very basis of its growth and existence, the tourist assets and tourist experience. Tourism depends on the quality of the sociocultural and natural environment as well as on the quality of services provided, both essential components of tourism attraction, particularly in an increasingly competitive world economy.
As a consequence it is not surprising that a growing number of countries, regions and local communities are increasingly concerned about the impacts of tourism and adopt policies to confront the problems which tourism generates. While early attempts at policy making focused on establishing the basic conditions for tourism development (i.e. infrastructure, services, etc.) relying on traditional instruments (i.e. economic incentives, regulatory controls over land development and land use, etc.), it became apparent that a broader perspective was needed to incorporate cross-sectoral and 'system-wide' issues. It also became apparent that a pro-active policy was necessary to take into consideration the social, economic and environmental aspects of tourism development and their interactions, evidenced in terms of spatial development patterns. Anticipating and managing the impacts of tourism and its growth became a central issue in national, regional and local policy making.
Any type of activity usually has impacts of varying kinds on a system. The key question is whether these impacts are significant or not, in order to take remedial action or act early in anticipation of impacts. Significance is a matter of relative assessment and this brings up two kinds of questions: 'in relation to what?' and 'how much is enough?', reflecting on the types of impacts and their relative magnitude. Both of these issues have been central to the concept of 'tourism carrying capacity' in tourism planning and management. Assessing the impacts of tourism became a central policy issue, as well as establishing the mechanisms and tools to cope with such impacts.
The concept of tourism carrying capacity has been under consideration for at least as long as there has been increasing concern about the impacts of tourism. It stems from a perception that tourism cannot grow forever in a place without causing irreversible damage to the local system, whether expressed in social, economic or environmental terms (in the wide sense, including the built environment). Therefore there should be limits on tourism development in a place (size, intensity, etc.). The concept can be interpreted and used in many ways. For some types of destinations, such as protected areas, natural parks, archaeological sites, small beaches, etc., the interpretation of capacity can be related to crowding, that is the number of people present at a given period of time. So, tourism carrying capacity can be the maximum number of people who can use a site without causing an unacceptable alteration to the physical environment (natural and man-made) and without an unacceptable decline in the quality of the experience gained by visitors. If applied to a large geographical area (such as an island, a historic settlement or town, a region, etc.) the concept may acquire a broader significance so as to express a maximum acceptable tourist development (number of beds, hotels, mooring places, etc.) on the basis of the capacity of key resources (such as beaches, land area, energy, water, etc.) or infrastructure (such as ski lifts, etc.).
There are basically three dimensions (environmental, social and economic) in tourism carrying capacity assessment: environmental limits can be assessed in terms of ecological or physical parameters (the capacity of natural resources, ecosystems and infrastructure), social in terms of psychological and sociocultural aspects (visitor enjoyment, resident population tolerance, crime, etc.) and economic, in terms of the losses in the diversity of activities in a place and monoculture, but also unemployment, etc. In practice, there is a broad range of factors and issues which shape capacity levels reflecting the characteristics of the place, the type(s) of tourism and the tourism/local system interface (Coccossis, 2002). In reality there is a complex pattern of interaction among limits or capacity thresholds (Pearce, 1989). Capacity levels, expressed as a function of limits or thresholds can be real or perceived, and may change as a result of functional adaptation, or social intervention through organizational or technological measures.
The particular value of tourism carrying capacity as a concept is that it can be used in policy making as well, as a basis for making decisions about measures to control tourism development and growth. For example, in visitor management inside a protected and managed area it can be a basis for making decisions about taking control measures (such as entrance fees, restrictions of access and use, etc.). In tourism development planning, carrying capacity can be used as a planning standard, benchmark or planning scenario, as the maximum acceptable level of tourist development in an area, measured in terms of number of beds and desirable densities. On the basis of that number, associated infrastructure and related urban development can then be projected. In development planning, tourism carrying capacity can be a central concept in a process of seeking (and selecting) 'appropriate' (desirable, acceptable, feasible, and so forth) types of development, measured in terms of size of tourist activity, linkages to other sectors, tourist/inhabitant relations, and so on. In environmental management, carrying capacity is a central concept in environmental impact assessment, therefore tourism carrying capacity can be linked to environmental degradation, measured in terms of loss of biodiversity, degradation of natural resources, threats to species, and so on. It can guide decisions on land use and activity restrictions, environmental standards, appropriate technology and other policy measures.
Tourism carrying capacity is a versatile concept and as such it can be used in a variety of functions in planning and policy making (assessment, goal identification, alternative strategy formulation, raising awareness, consensus building, and so on). In spite of its versatility though, its application in practice is limited, probably reflecting a number of reasons: methodological difficulties in measuring and assessing multi-dimensional and complex issues, political difficulties in accepting limits to development (particularly for a dynamic and growing activity such as tourism), societal difficulties to arrive at common 'visions', administrative inertia in adopting innovative concepts in policy making, fragmentation of decision making and difficulties in policy coordination and integration and many more. Of course many of these reasons reflect broader deficiencies of modern societies in policy making. However, there are positive signs that the policy context is changing to encompass sustainability, policy integration and governance, concepts which are compatible with the basic assumptions of considering multiple dimensions in integrated assessment, goal setting, policy development and policy evaluation. Such changes are likely to support the adoption and application (measuring, assessment and policy decisions) of integrative concepts such as tourism carrying capacity.
A Changing Policy Context
The compiling environmental problems have led modern societies to reconsider their development paths and options. To face such problems in earlier periods such as the seventies, basic environmental legislation was gradually developed and adopted addressing specific thematic problems (as for example, species protection, sea pollution, water waste treatment, etc.). Subsequently environmental policy was enriched to reflect improvements in understanding the complexity of environmental issues leading to the adoption of broader concepts such as ecosystem protection, environmental impact assessment, etc. Environmental policy was linked to development policy in the sense of mitigating impacts. Environmental problems were perceived as unwanted outcomes of human activities and the development of economic sectors. The environment was considered by many as antithetical to development. It soon became apparent though that to a great extent development prospects depend on environmental quality, that nature protection is essential not only on ethical grounds but because natural systems support human activities, resource protection is essential for th...