Aviation and Climate Change

Economic Perspectives on Greenhouse Gas Reduction Policies

Frank Fichert, Peter Forsyth, Hans-Martin Niemeier

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2020
• ISBN:
  9781317165125
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business General
• Index: Business

This book analyses the political, economic and managerial challenges for policy makers and the air transport industry as they face climate change.

Based on an overview of the scientific background and technological options for emissions reduction, Aviation and Climate Change provides an in-depth assessment of environmental regulation and management. It provides an up-to-the-minute analysis of the effects of aviation on climate change, and an economic analysis of policies to reduce or eliminate greenhouse gas emissions. The main emphasis of the book is on the economic mechanisms used to lessen emissions – carbon taxes, emissions trading schemes and offset schemes. It pays particular attention to the ways these policies work, and to the interaction between them – for instance, the interaction between taxes and emissions trading schemes. One feature of the book is that it analyses the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) which has been developed by ICAO for international aviation, and which is due to commence operation shortly. The advantages and disadvantages of this controversial scheme are discussed.

This book will be of interest to researchers in diverse areas (economics, political science, engineering, natural sciences), to air transport policy makers, and to managers in the aviation industry.

1 Introduction and overview

Frank Fichert, Peter Forsyth and Hans-Martin Niemeier

Climate change is one of the crucial global problems of the 21st century. Nations have responded to this challenge by unilateral measures as well as international agreements on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Important milestones have been the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of 1992, followed by the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. More recently, in the Paris 2016 agreement, the aim of keeping the global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels was formulated, with an additional ambition to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Many jurisdictions have defined pathways for reducing CO₂ emissions, often aiming at a “decarbonisation” of the economy.

The economic aspects of climate change have been addressed in many publications. William Nordhaus analysed climate change already in the 1970s and received the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences in 2018. The Stern report, published in 2007, had a major influence on the public debate on climate change policies. Nowadays, the economics of climate change are a common element in every textbook on environmental economics.

The aviation industries’ contribution to climate change became a major topic by the 1990s. In 1999 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a special report on “Aviation and the Global Atmosphere”. For several years, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has discussed different ways to reduce international aviation’s contribution to global warming. Technical options for more fuel-efficient aircraft and the potentials of renewable fuels have been analysed thoroughly throughout the world. Many initiatives have been formed to foster research and development; for example, the European research program “Clean Sky”, which also looks into other environmental issues like noise reduction. Large airlines publish sustainability reports, explaining their initiatives to limit CO₂ and other emissions. The problem is made more complex because of the fact that it is not only carbon emissions which lead to global warming – other gases, such as nitrous oxides, also contribute to the problem. Carbon emissions may be responsible for only about a third of the overall problem.

Policy makers, as well as economists in particular, have been discussing the pros and cons of different policy instruments in the air transport market. From the 1990s, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and also some political parties have been arguing in favour of higher taxes on aviation in order to limit air transport’s growth and emissions. However, the international nature of aviation requires international cooperation in order to implement measures which are effective as well as efficient. For example, the European Union’s initial approach to include not only intra-European flights but also flights from Europe to non-EU member states in its Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) caused conflicts with countries affected by this measure. Finally, in 2016 ICAO initiated a global market-based scheme, CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation), to achieve carbon-neutral growth of international air transport, which will be implemented stepwise beginning in 2021.

Given the intense debate and the many policy initiatives sketched here, it is not surprising that there are already some books on aviation and climate change; for example, Gössling and Upham (2009). Moreover, a large number of papers have been published in journals focusing on air transport and sustainability, respectively.

The focus of this volume is narrower than that of other more general books on climate change and air transport. The focus here is on policies, and on the economic analysis of those policies which are being used, or are suggested, to lessen or eliminate the greenhouse gas emissions of air transport. There have been a range of policies which rely on economic instruments and which have been used, or are being suggested, as ways of reducing emissions. These include taxation policies such as ticket taxes and fuel taxes, quantitative instruments such as Emissions Trading Schemes, voluntary schemes and new initiatives such as CORSIA. The objective of the volume is to explain what they involve and how they work, what problems they encounter, how effective they might be, and what alternatives there are to the use of air transport, such as the greater use of rail.

Several aspects of aviation and climate change are not considered, or are considered only in passing – these include the more technological aspects of policies, the geographical aspects and the political economy aspects of developing support for policies. These are important issues which are for others to explore. Most of the policies considered here are capable of being implemented in the short term, though they will not be, of their own, sufficient to address the emissions problem. The technological solutions, including engine and airframe developments and lower or zero emission fuels, will take time to develop, and they will become increasingly important over the longer run.

As a starting point, Grewe provides an up-to-date overview on the contribution of aviation to climate change. The potentials of renewable fuels are analysed by Roth. The majority of the papers deal with different instruments for environmental protection, combining theoretical models, empirical analysis, and policy aspects. Fichert, Forsyth and Niemeier set the scene by providing an overview of the different instruments which have been used or suggested, and they discuss interdependencies between the instruments. Knorr and Eisenkopf also compare several instruments, with a special focus on voluntary carbon offsets offered by airlines. Morrell focusses on Emissions Trading Schemes, concentrating on the EU scheme. An important development has been the development of CORSIA. Haag provides an insight into the role of ICAO in the decision-making process leading to the development of this, and Maertens, Grimme and Scheelhaase analyse how CORSIA will work.

The chapter by Scheelhaase et al. contains a model-based comparison of different market-based measures which covers not only carbon emissions, but also other climate relevant emissions of aviation like NO_x and contrails. The analysis favours an Emissions Trading Scheme on a global level compared to a climate tax and a NO_x emission charge combined with an open CO₂ trading scheme and operational measures. Hemmings et al. of Transport and Environment describe the view of a NGO on aviation and climate change. They address a key policy question of the European Union, namely a potential pathway for the European Union to support decarbonisation of the aviation sector to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. The roadmap to decarbonising European aviation combines measures such as a carbon pricing of €150 per tonne to reduce fuel demand from aviation either by improving efficiency or reducing demand, and then proposes how the remaining fuel demand can be decarbonised by alternative biofuels and electrofuels.

Rothengatter discusses the intermodal issue, in particular with respect to high-speed rail, which is a substitute for air travel. He argues that under economic and environmental criteria, high-speed rail is advantageous over air travel for distances between 300 and 800 km in densely populated corridors. He is sceptical about a high-density, high-speed rail network.

In political and even in academic discussions, the special treatment of aviation (and also shipping) has been taken as given. Murphy questions the political decision of the current policy which goes back to the Kyoto Protocol. He shows a simple way to include aviation and shipping emissions in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) of the Paris Agreement. Finally, Forsyth summarises the discussion on aviation and climate change and provides directions for future research.

The editors hope that this volume will not only provide new insights for academics as well as practitioners interested into aviation and climate change, but also encourage future research on the issue.

References

Gössling, S. and Upham, P., eds. (2009). Climate change and aviation: Issues, challenges and solutions. London: Earthscan.

IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (1999). Aviation and the global atmosphere. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Stern, N. (2007). The economics of climate change: The Stern Review. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

2 Aviation emissions and climate impacts

Volker Grewe

1. Introduction

Air traffic emissions contribute to climate warming in a very complex way. The emitted species alter the atmospheric composition and cloudiness, lead to changes in Earth’s radiation budget and finally contribute to human-made climate change. This chain of physical processes depends on a variety of meteorological parameters and includes a wide range of time-scales. For example, the climate impact of a today’s carbon dioxide emission prevails for centuries, while contrails may exist for hours only. Here, a short overview is given, showing how emitted carbon dioxide affects the atmosphere, what kind of other, non-CO₂ effects are caused by aviation, and how these impacts can be assessed by using so-called climate metrics. Finally, examples are given to show how a reduction of air traffic’s climate impacts might be achieved.

2. Aviation CO₂: from the emission to global warming

The most prominent anthropogenic greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide. It originates from kerosene, i.e. fossil fuel, combustion. Air traffic CO₂ emissions contribute to the total anthropogenic CO₂ emissions by about 2.5% (Figure 2.1). Aviation emissions have grown since the middle of the last century, when civil aviation became more important. Major international crises have reduced the growth in emissions. However, air traffic and its emissions have grown over-proportionally after these crises (Figure 2.1).

The carbon dioxide emissions lead to an increase in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. This CO₂ enhancement remains in the atmosphere and decays only slowly. The decay is controlled by several physical processes, such as the oceanic CO₂ uptake, and hence can only be insufficiently described by a single lifetime; although, for illustration purposes, a lifetime for this perturbation of 80 to 100 years provides a reasonable illustration of the long-term effect of CO₂ emissions on the CO₂ concentration.

The relation between an emission of CO₂ and the corresponding impact on the near surface temperature originates from a sequence of effects which is illustrated exemplarily in Figure 2.2. It shows, in a thought experiment, the effect of an imagined new fleet, which would go into service in 2015. The fleet size is pictured to increase until 2050 with a change in the amount of produced aircraft in 2025. In 2050 the service of all aircraft of this type is shut down. This leads to emissions from the fleet, which follow the fleet size, peaking in 2050 and being zero afterwards. The CO₂ concentration change, and equally the impact on radiation, induced by these emissions, also peak in 2050, but the curve is much smoother and concentration changes prevail long after the emissions have stopped. The change in radiation (RF) affects the atmosphere-ocean system and leads to an increase in atmospheric temperatures, which, due to the considerable inertia of the system, peaks around 2080 – long after the emissions have stopped. An impact on climate still exists decades after the last emission happened.

Figure 2.1Growth in CO₂ emissions in Tg CO₂ yr-1 (left-hand axis) for all anthropogenic activities (top solid line) and from aviation fuel burn (lower solid line), and the fraction of aviation CO₂ emissions (%, right hand axis). Note that the aviation CO₂ emissions are depicted ten-fold.

Source: Figure adapted from Lee et al. (2009).

Figure 2.2CO₂ emissions and global warming (thought experiment). Thought experiment showing the relation between CO₂ emissions and resulting global warming. Non-dimensional temporal development of an imagined fleet scenario to illustrate the principle relation between CO₂ emissions (long dashed), CO₂ concentration change and radiative forcing (short dashed) and induced temperature change (dotted). Entry into service is 2015, a lower production rate from 2025 to 2050 and a full stop of service in 2050. For all data, the maximum value is normalised to 1.

Source: Figure adapted from Grewe and ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• List of figures
• List of tables
• Acknowledgements
• List of editors and contributors
• 1 Introduction and overview
• 2 Aviation emissions and climate impacts
• 3 Renewable fuels for aviation
• 4 Air transport and the challenge of climate change – how aviation climate change policies work
• 5 ETSs and aviation: implementation of schemes in the EU and other countries
• 6 International action and the role of ICAO
• 7 ICAO’s new CORSIA scheme at a glance – a milestone towards greener aviation?
• 8 Voluntary carbon offset schemes in the airline industry: why did they fail?
• 9 Roadmap to decarbonising aviation
• 10 Intermodal dimension of climate change policy
• 11 Scenarios for future policies – potential costs and competitive impacts of different market-based measures for the limitation of all climate relevant species from aviation
• 12 Inclusion of international aviation emissions under the Paris Agreement’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
• 13 Review and further directions
• Index