Part 1
Making a case for building negative peace
1 Introduction
The number of Africans estimated by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) to have been displaced by conflict in 2015 is 14.9 million. In sub-Saharan Africa, the number of refugees displaced by conflict increased for the fifth consecutive year to 3.7 million. Nearly 2 million Libyans, more than a quarter of the population, fled to Tunisia to escape a civil war that claimed some 3,500 lives between January 2014 and April 2015 (LĂ©vesque, 2015). Unfortunately, some of these refugees are hosted by countries that are themselves unsafe, a fact buttressed by terrorist attacks in Tunisia, Chad and Kenya (Romdhani, 2014; Amnesty International, 2015a, b). Drawing on such data, scholars of African conflict point out that of the many challenges facing the African Union (AU) and Africa, the quest for peace and security is the most pressing (Curtis, 2012a: 1; Dersso, 2014: 1).
One of the most notable aspects in which the AU has been able to translate its pursuit of peace in Africa into practice is through peace operations (Okeke, 2015: 37). Considering that Africa has been a hot bed of violent conflicts with increasing civilian casualties, and peace operations are increasingly conceived as the principal international instrument to curb them, the AU has sought to bolster its capabilities through partnership with major international organisations (Cottey and Forster, 2010: 52; Curtis, 2012a: 1; Gowan and Sherman, 2012: Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 68; Gaibulloev et al., 2015: 2). This book examines how effective the AU has been at reducing insecurity and providing stability in conflict areas. It goes on to make policy recommendations directed at making AU peacekeeping more effective.
Despite the AUâs growing reputation in peacekeeping (Khadiagala, 2014: 164), and its status as the oldest continental peacekeeper (Brosig, 2012: 292), it is surprising that no study has exclusively assessed its performance through its six peacekeeping operations. Reputed authors such as Alex Bellamy, Paul Williams, Adebajo Adekeye, Benjamin de Carvalho, Jakkie Cilliers, Cedric de Coning, Tim Murithi and Funmi Olonisakin have done extensive work on AU peacekeeping, but have not undertaken a comprehensive assessment of all six AU operations. This study fills this gap.
The AUâs six peace operations are Burundi (2003), Comoros (2003), Sudan (2004), Somalia (2007), Mali (2013) and the Central African Republic (CAR) (2013) and they all have varied outcomes. Burundi, Comoros and Mali wound up successfully. CAR ended on a dismal note and Darfur, which is still on-going, has been terrible. Somalia, while a success story so far, has no clear exit strategy. As noted by Paul Williams (2010: 8), âpeace operations in Africa have revealed some of the best and worst dimensions of peacekeepingâ. Since the AU is not much into peacebuilding which it often leaves to the UN, this studyâs concept of success revolves around the immediate impact of peacekeeping which is the cessation of violence and the provision of security and stability.
While the EU, NATO and UN are well resourced institutions and possessvast expertise in security issues, the AU is an organisation where the majority of its member states are among the poorest in the world. This accounts for the paucity of internally generated revenue and low supply of skilled personnel. Despite these challenges, the AU has taken the challenge to confront insecurity on the continent. Examining how the AU has fared at this through peacekeeping considering its capacity deficit makes this research an interesting and veritable project.
With three quarters of UN peacekeeping missions taking place in Africa, this study presents a perspective that shows what Africa through the AU and Africans at the local level do to help themselves. For this reason, this study stresses the willingness of the AU to go into places most other peacekeeping organisations do not have the stomach for. Burundi in 2003, Somalia in 2008 and the special combat force deployed to the DRC in 2012 are good examples. Most organisations concerned with peacekeeping defer being deployed into war zones since war fighting is opposed to traditional peacekeeping tenets. Through its six missions, the AU has been involved in monitoring the peace, peacekeeping, peace enforcement, war fighting and peacebuilding â all aspects of peace operations â thus making it quite distinct from other peacekeeping organisations. The AU has undertaken these challenges despite lacking the resources. Its doggedness, sturdy zeal and ability at galvanising and utilising international political will make its peace operations worth studying.
In addition to analysing all AU missions, this book assesses peacekeeping from institutional and grassroots perspectives. It utilises both top-bottom and bottom-up approaches, where most authors adopt the former approach only. Even where notable authors such as Severine Autessere, Cederic de Coning and Adebajo Adekeye advocate the relevance of national and local elements, they do this through identifying the failures of the top-bottom approach. This method does not indicate how those at the bottom fit into the peace scheme to make things work. In examining the role of citizens at the grassroots, local political elites and local women in the peace process, this study addresses this deficit. All case studies discuss how the inclusion or exclusion of these factors foster or hinder stability in mission areas.
The findings of this dual approach modifies the conventional argument on what is essential for effective peacekeeping and stresses the indispensability of International Political Will, Local Participation and Local Political Elite Cooperation. This research trumps up the importance of local content to the success of peace operations. It also argues for other factors that matter and the conditions necessary, for peace operations to be effective. For example, in addressing the controversy over the necessity of lead states for peace operations, this study identifies those operations for which they are indispensable and those that are not. While low intensity conflicts such as in the Comoros would not need a lead state to facilitate stability, intense and protracted conflicts such as Somalia and Darfur, do.
This research lays claim to providing a comprehensive list of peacekeeping factors. The broad spectrum of peacekeeping factors discussed in peace literature is couched into the eighteen sub-themes of this book. The issue of regional neighbours influence is discussed under âInternational Collaborationâ and âInternational Political Willâ. The impact of conflict intensity on peacekeeping is treated under the factors âTiming of deployment and Duration of Peace Operationâ. The role of population (demographics) and economic fragility of the mission area are discussed under âSize of Contingentâ, âFundingâ and âSize/Mineral Resources of Mission Areaâ. Factors also addressed include the commitment of peacekeepers to keeping the peace, trust between the locals and peacekeepers and appropriate political systems that facilitate stability in mission areas.
Through addressing a wide array of peace factors, this study expands on peace theory and brings to the fore factors which have been relegated in peace literature such as force integrity, local political elite and size of conflict area. These factors are given due attention in this study and their impact show that they too matter and should be taken into account when planning peace operations. This study also makes a case for the role of women in facilitating peace, whether in violent conflicts or in post conflict peacebuilding. When this factor is not harnessed for peace, it could be manipulated into aggravating violence as was done in Darfur with the Hakamas singers. So, it counts as an important factor for effecting stability.
The literature on peacekeeping and peacebuilding processes is mainly concerned with attaining some degree of positive peace through the strengthening of state institutions in the hope of preventing a return to conflict. These processes are pursued within the purview of the liberal peace which is anchored on the arguments that there will be diminished disposition to war in states where democracy and capitalism successfully interact, and the right to property and a notion of the common good indicate the need to preserve the state in order to safe guard these values. Thus, when state structures function to facilitate these norms, positive peace exists (Galtung, 1969: 186; Gleditsch et al., 2014: 149).
However, as noted by Patricia Shields and Joseph Soeters (2015: 2), âin a society at war, the first stage of peace begins as the end of personal violence and absence of war (negative peace)â. This is the theoretical theme of this study as discussions and processes of positive peace will come to naught, if negative peace is not first achieved. The protection of life and provision of security which is conceived as peace in the negative sense should be the major objective of peace operations. This study is therefore a reminder of the importance of negative peace to peacekeeping processes and debates. Without the provision of security (negative peace), peacebuilding and the tenets of positive peace cannot be achieved.
Peacekeeping and problem-solving
The issues discussed in this study revolve around the effectiveness of African Union peacekeeping in terms of saving lives and providing a secure environment â when security is poor, the other aspects of peacekeeping stay moribund. With this as the central theme, the problem-solving theory serves as the most appropriate framework for this study.
Problem-solving theory is about taking the world as it is, and making suggestions on how world politics could be improved. It accepts the parameters of the present world order and simply tries to resolve problems that arise within it (Johnstone, 2005: 2). Problem-solving aims to develop appropriate responses by existing institutions to enable stability. It looks at how peacekeeping operations are organised and how successful operations are in providing stability. It is mainly concerned with the politics and techniques of peacekeeping, lessons learned from operations and prescriptive agendas for improving performance in these areas (Pugh, 2004: 39). This study, in line with the problem-solving theory, analyses the interaction of factors that enable peacekeeping adapt to conflict variation (Diehl, 2005: 243). One such operational variation is the mandate to protect lives, especially endangered populations, which often necessitates the use of force in peacekeeping.
The problem-solving theory has received its share of criticisms. The uncertainty and complexity of the interactive effects of peacekeepingâs multiple factors makes sophisticated analysis difficult (Diehl, 2005: 243). Roland Paris (2000) and Michael Pugh (2003) acknowledge the contribution of problem solving to policy development, but note that the attention it is given, leaves the literature on peace operations too limited in the scope of its inquiry to build a mature academic study of peace missions. This systematically imposes limitations on the ability of scholars to think outside the box.
Another issue raised against the problem-solving approach is not with the content of the theory itself, after all the concept of working with what you have to make existing conditions better is logical, but it is with the hierarchical structure the theory tries to preserve. Critics contend that this approach does not interrogate the existing international structure and by accepting it as reality, reinforces its underlying values and structures (Cox, 1981; Pugh, 2004: 41). Though this structure may have its demerits, a major advantage of the problem-solving approach is in exploiting this system to promote the preservation of life especially in areas of conflict.
The crux of the matter
Analysing peace operations and how they achieve stability reveals the influence of a wide range of factors, some of which are critical in tipping the balance between success and failure. Some factors contribute significantly and others minimally. In identifying these elements and ascertaining their impact on peace operations through the missions conducted by the AU, this study ascertains the factors that matter, and to what extent. It also profers ways through which peacekeeping missions, especially those of the AU, can improve security and stability in conflict areas in the short term.
This research examines the effectiveness of the AU in making conflict areas stable. This is done through assessing all six AU peace operations. As noted by scholars, factors effective in one venue might play out differently in another venue (Curtis, 2012a: 3; Jowell, interview 2016). Creating a comprehensive list of these factors and determining what matters most requires covering a wide range of missions. Examining a large number of cases increases the potentials of the research in identifying patterns and making valid generalisations (Diehl and Druckman, 2013: 12).
The findings of this book query traditional peace literature which places mandate, funding, international collaboration, local initiative and size of the contingent at the heart of peacekeepingâs effectiveness (OâHanlon, 2003; Pan, 2005). Experts contend that unclear mandates often give rise to the provision of porous security and doom the peace operation to failure (Jett, 2001: 39; Dallaire, 2005: 374; Sitkowski, 2006: 2; Jacobson, 2012: 3â4). When security is uncertain, missions may have to stay for much longer than envisaged without pre-set times for their winding up (De Carvalho and Ettang, 2011: 6). Poor funding undermines the performance of operations (Murithi, 2008; Aning and Edu-Afful, 2013). On international collaboration, the argument here is that no one organisation can go it alone (Feldman, 2008: 269â270). So, partnering with other International Government Organisations (IGOs) and willing international actors becomes an ever greater necessity. Failure to do this leads to shortage of manpower and other much needed resources. For local initiative, authors argue that peace operations will fail if the local populace whom they are meant to protect do not see it as their own and are unwelcoming of it. Participation of the local people in the peace process is conceived as a cornerstone to the success of peace operations (Andrieu, 2010: 540; Breidlid and Stensland, 2011: 30). For contingent size, the argument made is that small peacekeeping units do not provide strong enough deterrents to spoilers (Walter, 1997: 340â341; Pickering and Kinsangani, 2006: 363).
This study acknowledges the importance of these factors, but contends that they are not all critical to peacekeeping creating stable environments. This is ...