Noting that sometimes changes that appear to be evolutionary are in fact cyclical, Green says āthe pace of change today ā whether global, societal, or regional, in the home or at work ā is so rapid that there may be a greater likelihood that the seeds of actual evolution are embedded in itā.
Kevin W. C. Green, of Green & Associates, Inc., a Virginia-based marketing and strategic planning consultant, discusses the dynamics of change in the first five chapters of the AIA Handbook (13th ed., 2001).
He says that evolutionary change, unlike cyclical change, is neither steady nor gradual, but is āa series of long, quiet plateaus studded with sudden bursts of massive evolutionary redirection ⦠called punctuated equilibriumā.
DesignIntelligence (di.net) has posted an excellent paper by Lance Josel, President and CEO of Callison RTKL, Inc.: The Future of the Architecture Practice.
Josalās paper is a superb and optimistic reflection on the changes happening in our profession.
See Sources at the end of this Part 1 for the link.
Davis and Meyer, in BLUR: The Speed of Change in the Connected Economy (1998), asked:
Has the pace of change accelerated way beyond your comfort zone? Are the rules that guided your decisions in the past no longer relevant? If so, you are just like everyone else whoās paying attentionā¦. The elements of change that are driving these momentous shifts are based on the fundamental dimensions of the universe itself: time, space and massā¦. The fact is, something enormous is happening all around you, enough to make you feel as if youāre losing your balance and seeing double.
Thomas R. Fisher, in the opening page of In The Scheme of Things: Alternative Thinking on the Practice of Architecture (2000), puts it bluntly:
We are in the midst of a tremendous social and economic transformation, as sweeping as the Industrial Revolution was some 150 to 200 years ago. The current process of change has been called many things: the global economy, the information revolution, the age of complexity. Whatever we call it, this break with the past has shaken the foundations of our economic and social lives, laid during the Industrial Revolution, and it has rendered vulnerable the various structures so carefully built upon those foundations, including the structures of the professions and universities.
Frank Stasiowski, FAIA, in Impact 2020: Predictions for the Next Ten Years of the Design Industry (2010), observes:
One of the major blind spots among architecture and engineering professionals is a real failure to grasp the speed at which the world is changing.
David Houle, in Entering the Shift Age (2012), notes:
We now live in the Shift Age, a time of transformation that will be regarded by future historians as one of the most significant periods in human history.
Houle counts the length of āagesā of humanity in ālifetimesā, averaging 50 years each, counting prehistoric times. It took humanity about 2,800 lifetimes to get to the first age ā Agricultural ā which lasted about 200 lifetimes. Then came the Industrial Age, defined by machines, which lasted about 5 lifetimes.
Houle says the Information Age began roughly about 1975 and started transitioning to the Shift Age about 2007 ā less than one lifetime. We donāt know how long this new age will last, or where it will lead.
Cliff Moser, AIA, in Architecture 3.0: The Disruptive Design Practice Handbook (2014), describes three stages in the evolution of architecture. Architecture 1.0 was the realm of the master builder, up to about 1900.
Then came Architecture 2.0, the role of the practitioner in the era of the Industrial Revolution, up to the recession that began in 2007.
Moser calls his view of the future āArchitecture 3.0ā, which he describes as disruptive of the whole historical premise of the practice of architecture. His view on what he sees as the dying days of Architecture 2.0 is that āWe overspecialized, under-delivered, and created a profession that, in most of the publicās opinion, served no purposeā.
I further delve into the conclusions of these thinkers throughout this new edition of MQIA. I have my own views on the state of the architectural profession, what I see as the problems it confronts, and what the professions can do about it. These thoughts are the core of my website DesignNode.net.
In John Doehringās FAST FUTURE: Ten Uber-Trends Changing Everything in Business and Our World (2015), he notes:
The globalization endg...