Tourism Crises

Management Responses and Theoretical Insight

Eric Laws, Bruce Richard Prideaux

• Publisher: Routledge
• Year: 2017
• ISBN:
  9781136745928
• Edition: 1
• Topic: Commerce
• Subtopic: Commerce Général

Don't wait until it's too late to learn how to manage a crisis situationThe impact of crises on tourism has increased in the last ten years in response to terrorism, war, health emergencies, and natural disasters. Tourism Crises presents the latest research on crisis management with in-depth analysis of tourism flows and the

Quantifying the Effects of Tourism Crises: An Application to Scotland

Juan L. Eugenic-Martin
M. Thea Sinclair
Ian Yeoman

Juan L. Eugenio-Martin and M. Thea Sinclair are affiliated with the Christel DeHaan Tourism and Travel Research Institute, Nottingham University Business School, Wollaton Road, Jubilee Campus, Nottingham, NG8 IBB, UK. Ian Yeoman is affiliated with VisitScotland, 23 Ravelston Terrace, Edinburgh EH4 3TP, UK.

SUMMARY. Effective crisis management requires information about the ways in which tourists of different nationalities respond to different types of crisis. This paper provides a model which can be used to quantify such effects. The model is applied to the case of American, French and German tourism demand in Scotland. The results show that French tourists were particularly affected by the foot and mouth disease crisis. Germans were most severely affected by the September 11 events. Although arrivals from the USA decreased after both crises, receipts were hardly affected. [Article copies available for a fee from The Haworth Document Delivery Service: 1-800-HAWORTH. E-mail address: <[email protected]> Website: <http:/www.HaworthPress.com> © 2005 by The Haworth Press, Inc. All rights reserved.]

KEYWORDS. Forecasting, predictions, foot and mouth disease, September 11

Introduction

Effective management of tourism crises requires considerable information about the nature of the different types of crises that can occur and the extent and range of their effects. Much of the research that has provided information about tourism crises has concentrated on providing typologies of crises, examining popular perceptions of major events and studying the effects on particular sectors and destinations. The effects of terrorist incidents and political instability have been a particular focus of attention. Research has also been undertaken on the process of crisis management via improved communication strategies and changes in management structures and operations. However, few studies have provided quantitative measures of the impact of crises or forecasts of their impact.

The need for more information about tourism crises has been highlighted by Prideaux, Laws and Faulkner (2003), who showed that investigation of the nature of crises is complex, as multiple events occur concurrently. Thus, for example, a terrorist incident may occur within a period of financial crisis or political upheaval. In practice it is difficult to separate the effects of the terrorist incident from those that stem from contemporaneous events. Thus, the magnitude of the terrorist incident may be over- or under-estimated.

This paper will illustrate the ways in which quantitative techniques can provide more information about tourism crises by examining the effects of two types of crisis, one internal to a country and one stemming from an external incident. The first case is that of foot and mouth disease which affected the UK from the spring of 2001, and the second is the September 11 terrorist events. Each case will be examined in the context of its effects on American, French and German demand for tourism in Scotland. Analysis of the impact of these events on tourism demand is complicated by ongoing changes in relative prices and exchange rates for pound sterling, the dollar and the euro and incomes in the USA, France and Germany. As all of these events affected tourist arrivals and receipts in Scotland, the magnitudes of the effects of foot and mouth disease and of September 11, in isolation from those of other events, are not evident. The absence of this information is problematic for policy makers who need to know the extent to which the changes in tourism demand from different origins were due to the crises rather than to other economic events. In the absence of such information, policy makers are unable to pursue an effective strategy of tailoring crisis management strategies towards individual origin markets.

The paper will explain and demonstrate an approach that can be used to distinguish the effects of crises on international tourism demand from those of other events that take place simultaneously. A forecasting model will be used to quantify the changes in tourism demand in Scotland from the different origins prior to the occurrence of the crises. The estimated model will then be used to predict the changes in demand that occurred during the ensuing years due to changes in prices, exchange rates and tourists’ incomes but in the absence of the crises. By comparing the predicted values with the values of tourism demand that actually occurred, the effects of the crises can be measured. Hence, the results provide the effects on demand of the crisis, relative to the effects of changes in relative competitiveness and tourists’ purchasing power. The results show the differences in responses between different origin markets which, in turn, assist government organisations to tailor and target their policies more effectively towards the different destinations.

The next section of the paper will provide a brief overview of some of the main themes in the literature on tourism crises. The following section will provide the model that is used to quantify tourists’ responses to the crisis, as well as to other economic changes. The model will be applied to the cases of foot and mouth disease and September 11. The results will be compared for the different types of crisis, as well as for changes in arrivals and receipts in Scotland from the three main international origin markets.

Key Themes in the Literature

The literature on tourism crises has grown considerably in recent years, particularly in the light of the impacts on destinations of the September 11 events (Goodrich, 2002; Tate, 2002), as well as the impacts of other political events, natural disasters, disease, crime or war (Beirman, 2003). However, the need for more research on the nature of the crises was recognised well before the occurrence of such events. One strand of research was geared towards providing a set of typologies of tourism crises. For example, Meyers (1986) categorised crises into major effects on public perceptions, product failures, sudden changes in the market and changes in top management. Meyers also argued that crises can be caused by problems with financing, industrial relations, take-overs, international events and changes in regulations. Booth (1993) classified crises into those that are gradual, periodic or sudden, where gradual crises threaten parts of the organisation, periodic crises threaten part or all of the organisation and sudden crises threaten the entire organisation. Seymour and Moore (2000) classified crises according to the process by which they occur, terming a crisis that occurs gradually a “python,” in contrast to a “cobra” which strikes suddenly.

Crises have also been classified according to their causes. Coombes’ (1995) classification was based on stakeholders’ perceptions of the crisis as internal or external, resulting from unintentional or intentional decisions. For example, an unexpected crisis within the organisation is both internal and unintentional, whereas terrorism is external and intentional. Other studies that have focussed on the causes of crises include Slatter’s (1984) crisis susceptibility model. Further categorisations of crises have also been provided (Fender &. Sharpley, 2004). For instance, some researchers have categorised crises according to their severity (Heath, 1994; Augustine, 1995; Argenti, 2002; Prideaux et al., 2003).

Some studies have concentrated on the role that the mass media plays in affecting people’s perceptions of crises (Hall, 2002: Glaesser, 2004). Both crises and the media’s portrayals of them cause changes in perceptions that affect people’s intentions to travel (Sonmez &. Graefe, 1998; Seddighi, Nuttall &. Theocharous, 2001; Floyd, Gibson, Pennington-Gray &. Thapa, 2004) with consequent effects on destinations. Such effects have been examined for destinations ranging from South West England (Coles, 2003), to Malaysia (de Sausmarez, 2004), Nepal (Thapa, 2004) and Bali (Hitchcock, 2001; Henderson, 2003), the Gili Islands (Soemodinoto, Wong &. Saleh, 2001) and Lombok (Fallon, 2004) in Indonesia.

Recognition of the magnitude of the effects that crises can inflict on destinations has stimulated research on different approaches that can be used to manage crises. Early contributions include those of Cassedy (1991) who focussed on the strategies that destinations can implement to respond to crises, and Drabek (1995) who examined the operational moves required for crisis response. Young and Montgomery (1998) subsequently emphasized the importance of designing and implementing an effective communications strategy as an integral part of crisis management. A positive communications strategy may enha...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• Copyright
• CONTENTS
• Preface
• Crisis Management: A Suggested Typology
• Crisis Management in Alpine Winter Sports Resorts–The 1999 Avalanche Disaster in Tyrol
• Quantifying the Effects of Tourism Crises: An Application to Scotland
• Tourism and the Impact of the Foot and Mouth Epidemic in the UK: Reactions, Responses and Realities with Particular Reference to Scotland
• The Impacts of Foot and Mouth Disease on a Peripheral Tourism Area: The Role and Effect of Crisis Management
• Canadian Seasonality and Domestic Travel Patterns: Regularities and Dislocations as a Result of the Events of 9/11
• The Significance of Crisis Communication in the Aftermath of 9/11: A National Investigation of How Tourism Managers Have Re-Tooled Their Promotional Campaigns
• A Study of Crisis Management Strategies of Hotel Managers in the Washington, D.C. Metro Area
• Privation as a Stimulus to Travel Demand?
• Japanese Tourism and the SARS Epidemic of 2003
• Tourism Industry Employee Workstress–A Present and Future Crisis
• Tourism Crises and Disasters: Enhancing Understanding of System Effects
• Index