Two extraordinarily accurate sources of the status of psychotherapy practice are worth reviewing. The first involves prognostications by well-regarded professionals in the field, and the second is the implications of recent psychotherapy research. Both portrayals are briefly introduced before turning to the predicted trends.
Professional Prognostication
The recent Delphi study results reported by Norcross, Pfund, and Prochaska (2013) are discussed first, followed by some additional prognostications. For the past three decades, at intervals of 10 years, Norcross, Pfund, and Prochaska (2013) have conducted Delphi polls on the future trends in psychotherapy practice. Their predictions can be characterized as specific and uncannily accurate. Some 70 psychotherapy experts were empaneled in 2012 to forecast trends for the next decade. The five areas of focus were: theoretical orientations, therapeutic interventions, psychotherapist background, therapy formats, and forecast scenarios (Norcross et al., 2013).
The Delphi study predicted that cognitive-behavioral, integrative, mindfulness, and multicultural theoretical orientations would increase the most. On the other hand, Jungian therapy, classical psychoanalysis, and transactional analysis were expected to decline. The prediction regarding transactional analysis has already been realized in the United States. Regarding therapeutic interventions, technological, skill-building, self-change, and relationship-fostering interventions were predicted to be most utilized. As far as psychotherapist background, masterâs degree practitioners were predicted to be the dominant group of providers of mental health services. Therapy formats such as teletherapy, comprised of either web-based or telephone-based programs, were predicted to increase dramatically. It was concluded that the four driving themes for these trends are: (1) the economy of technology; (2) evidence-based treatment; (3) innovative ideas; and (4) practices (Norcross et al., 2013).
They summarized their predictions as:
In 2022, we expect briefer episodes of individual, group, and couple treatments increasingly conducted by masterâs-level professionals involving evidence-based methods and relationships; theoretical formulations and clinical methods more associated with the cognitive, integrative, multicultural, and mindfulness orientations; and progressively more on the Internet, smart phones, and social networking.
(Norcross et al., 2013, p. 369)
Similarly, Silverman (2013) predicted four trends in the future of psychotherapy. The first trend identified four levels of sophistication in technology for both providers and clients, rather than by ethnicity, race, or sexual orientation. The second trend indicated addressed the expansion of technology such as social media (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, etc.) and other online service platforms (e.g., Skype, Slack, etc.). Third, the development of new forms of healthcare would surface, rewarding successful efforts in evidence-based practice, prevention, and disease treatment, requiring documentation of clinical outcomes, and a focus on the discovery of successful new treatments. The fourth trend addressed emerging markets for individuals seeking increased quality of life and enhancement of performance (Silverman, 2013).
Just prior to Silvermanâs prognostications, Thomason (2010) made several predictions about evidence-based practice. He predicted a chasm between evidence-based and non-evidence-based practices. Essentially, reimbursement would be contingent on evidence-based practice, while non-evidence-based practices would not qualify. Finally, Thomason (2010) predicted that psychotherapy would become briefer, as well as integrated with, primary care practice.
The common themes among all three professional prognostications are that treatment will become much shorter, be evidence-based, and have increased levels of accountability for health issues in both mental health and integrated care.
Psychotherapy Research
Research on developments in the practice of psychotherapy has steadily increased in the past decade. Much of it has been summarized in a recent text (Wampold & Imel, 2015). Six of these research findings are reported here.
For the past seven decades psychotherapy has focused on two questions: is psychotherapy effective?; and how does it work? Research has verified that psychotherapy is not only effective but is very effective. In fact, the effects of psychotherapy are greater than the effects of many medical practices. Psychotherapy has been found to be as effective as medication for most mental disorders, without the side effects. Furthermore, psychotherapy is longer-lasting than medications and is less resistant to additional courses of treatment (Wampold & Imel, 2015). This finding is incredibly important since its effectiveness was seriously questioned by Eysenckâs (1952) influential study. The second question of how it works initially focused on specific factorsâinterventionsâor on common factors, and now on what some consider an even more important independent variable: therapist expertise (Castonquay & Hill, 2017). Instead of moving the psychotherapy profession forward, this question fragmented the field, leaving outcomes unchanged for many decades. The result of this fragmentation is that the field has not created new generations of highly effective therapists. The âway outâ of this dilemma is for research and clinical practice to focus on the therapistâs contribution to treatment outcome and the acquisition of therapist expertise and a commitment to using client feedback to inform therapy and to deliberate practice. In short, highly effective therapists are able to tailor treatment to their clients (Castonquay & Hill, 2017).
Therapists vary in their expertise and effectiveness: Some therapists consistently achieve better outcomes with their clients than do other therapists, in both clinical trials and in everyday practice (Wampold & Imel, 2015). Approximately 15â20% of therapists are highly effective, 15â20% are relatively ineffective, and the remainder are average (Barkham, Lutz, Lambert, & Saxon, 2017).
Therapists do not get better with time or experience. On average, over the course of their professional careers, it appears that therapists do not improve, in terms of achieving better outcomes. The exception are those therapists who engage in deliberate practice and utilize client feedback to inform the ongoing therapeutic process (Rousmaniere, 2019).
Specific therapeutic factors are clearly related to successful treatment outcomes. These include the therapeutic alliance, empathy, realistic expectations, psychoeducation about the disorder, and other âcommon factors.â Of particular importance is that therapists who can effectively form an effective therapeutic alliance with a range of clients, who have a sophisticated set of facilitative interpersonal skills, who work to maintain their effectiveness, and who engage in deliberate practice, these are the therapists who achieve better outcomes (Wampold & Imel, 2015).
Providing information about client progress improves the quality of psychotherapy, primarily by reducing the likelihood of treatment failures for clients not making the expected progress. Monitoring client progress to improve the quality of services, which is often called practice-based evidence, is becoming more widely used (Rousmaniere, 2019).
It appears that âtreatmentsâ with no structure are less effective than treatments that are structured and focused on the clientâs problems. Therapists delivering non-structured treatments are not able to share with the client an explanation in the form of a case conceptualization for two aspects of therapy that seem to be important for producing benefits. First, to explain why they became distressed, and, second, how their engagement in the therapeutic process will help them with their problems (Wampold & Imel, 2015).
In short, psychotherapy research finds that psychotherapy is very effective, and highly effective therapists tend to monitor outcomes, utilize client feedback to tailor treatment and align the therapeutic alliance to engage the client in the treatment process, apply focused interventions, and achieve positive therapeutic outcomes.