Before we begin the actual process of creating marketing strategy, we first need to agree on some rules that need to be followed to ensure that you reach the right destination, and donât get distracted or become misguided in your efforts.
Marketing strategy emerges after walking through an elegant and streamlined process. However, many people prefer to jump to conclusions rather than follow this process. The best example Iâve found to date to help you to avoid this natural tendency to jump to a conclusion rather than conducting a proper analysis of the situation and options comes from the adult parable, The Phantom Tollbooth, by Norton Juster (2011).1
In one part of the story, the main character and his friends see a beautiful island shimmering across the water as they drive by. They each jump to a conclusion about how beautiful being on this island must be and soon after doing so are immediately transported across the water to that seemingly beautiful island.
The only trouble is that once they arrive, the island doesnât look as beautiful as what they imagined from a distance. In fact, itâs a downright miserable place, with everyone who had mistakenly jumped there looking longingly across the water back to the place from which they had originally come. Try as they might to fly back across the water as easily as they had come, they find it is impossible to jump away from The Island of Conclusions as they had done to jump to it. The only way for them to get home is to swim through icy cold waters, something that they ultimately do, but after doing so make a vow to never again jump to conclusions.
My favorite quote comes from the main character Milo, after his painfully difficult swim back from the Island of Conclusions.
From now on Iâm going to have a very good reason before I make up my mind about anything. You can lose too much time jumping to conclusions.
â Norton Juster, The Phantom Tollbooth, p. 1661
Why do human beings like to jump to conclusions?
After jumping to so many of my own, and then as a consultant and professor watching others do exactly the same thing, I spent years looking for a scientific answer that made sense. Actually, there is hard scientific research that proves that we are genetically programmed to respond this way.
As Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman proved in his many groundbreaking studies of human behavior (c.f. Kahneman, Thinking, Fast & Slow),2 human beings have âtwo brainsâ or two different cognitive systems that help us navigate through our complex world. System 1 is the quick to respond, quick to take action default system that we typically rely on in the course of our day-to-day activities. By employing System 1, we can:
- Save valuable time: have you ever been walking along a road and jumped back in fright from a large snake resting on the road only to discover a few split-seconds later that this was not a snake at all, but a piece of rope? That is System 1 in action, and its logic is that it is better to be embarrassed and alive, than to be bitten by a pit viper and dead.
- Save valuable energy: Thinking hard about something causes our brains to expend glucose, which is a scarce resource that must be replenished. Our bodiesâ energy efficient approach to thinking would prefer us to think only in highly necessary situations. Therefore, by relying on System 1, our jumps allow us to save valuable natural resources as well.
System 2 on the other hand is the slow, steady process that requires our full and careful attention. If youâve ever labored to solve a complex math problem or calculate the fastest set of train connections between two cities, youâve engaged System 2.
Maria Konnikova has proposed a more colorful way to help distinguish between System 1 and System 2 patterns of thinking. In her 2013 book Mastermind: How to think like Sherlock Holmes she called System 1 âSystem Watsonâ and System 2 âSystem Holmes.â3 System Watson quickly jumps to incomplete or incorrect conclusions, while System Holmes plods carefully forward until arriving at the correct and often-overlooked correct conclusion.
Translating systems 1 and 2 into the business world
Jumping saves time: from our snake example earlier, it is clear that throughout human history, fast decision-making capabilities kept us alive. Our ancestors who were slow and methodical when thinking about every snake they met soon died out. Along these same lines, there is an inborn distaste by executives across all levels of any organization to use time inefficiently. Frederick Taylorâs initial attempts to save time and energy proved that unstructured ways of moving were inefficient and could be greatly improved. Today, such thinking has evolved from the manufacturing line and lean production to the boardroom and executive meetings where âtime is moneyâ and organizational efficiency mandates that we move and decide as quickly as possible.
This fallacy is propagated by the false believe of many executives in something called âFirst Mover Advantage.â But as Tellis and Golder have clearly proven in their detailed research efforts on the actual results of moving first (outlined in their book, Will & Vision: How Latecomers Come to Dominate Markets4), moving first does not mean moving best. Instead, the many businesses that truly moved first were simply eliminated from our memories (another outcome of System 1 thinking), and the followers who truly solved the customersâ problem most effectively being remembered as the ones that actually moved first (but who really hadnât).
I know this is hard to believe, especially if this is the first time anyone has explained this idea to you. The cause of this confusion is because the media has widely embraced the idea that moving first leads to the best results. For example, Trout and Riesâs must-read Positioning: The Battle For Your Mind,5 that we discussed previously, seems to argue for moving first. Their research and real-life efforts have proven that the brand that successfully captures a position in the mind of the consumer first is difficult, if not impossible, to oust from that position.
More recently, Malcolm Gladwellâs best seller Blink touts our human ability to jump to conclusions as a benefit and not as a risk or failure.6 But Gladwell actually concludes that those people who have built a strong level of category expertise can and should trust their intuition; whereas those who have not yet become experts should not be easily swayed by intuition.
Putting these seemingly different views of first mover advantage together with Tellis and Golderâs research, we actually find a very compelling and important story for marketers, which may also explain the pure genius of leaders like Akio Morita of Sony and Steve Jobs of Apple.
If, and this is a very strong conditional if, you truly have category expertise into your customers, your category, your company and how these all work together within the larger ecosystem, then it is OK to jump. Once you have reached this level of mastery and insight, you will see things before everyone else and anticipate trends like Akio Morita did with the Walkman, or pull together existing stand-alone products into a tour-de-force like Steve Jobs did with the iPod, iTunes and the Mac.
As weâve already discussed in Chapter 4, this âimplicit guidance and controlâ is the key to speeding up your progression through the OODA Loop process. At first, youâll need to take time to expend System 2 resources to carefully decide among various options. But as you build expertise at the level of Steve Jobs or Akio Morita, your need to do so diminishes and you can move more effectively through tacit decision-making.
If on the other hand you do not yet feel like youâve achieved this level of category expertise and insight just yet, then it is neither a good idea to jump, to blindly move first, nor to speed past important decision points within your OODA Loops.
This book outlines the process for helping you to gain such expertise, so that you can increasingly count on your intuition to guide you beyond where any textbook could go and where your OODA Loop cycles become far faster than any of your competitors.
Jumping saves energy: While glucose is the energy source of the human body, money is the main energy source of modern firms. Consumer behavior and underlying realities of modern markets are by definition incredibly complex. The effort to collect the appropriate and important information from the noise of the unimportant takes focu...