Energy

Economy and Prospective

André Gardel

• Publisher: Pergamon
• Year: 2013
• ISBN:
  9781483147277
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Real Estate
• Index: Business

Energy: Economy and Prospective emerged from the course taught by the author at the Federal Institute of Technology of Lausanne. It focuses on the economics and future prospects of energy. Having as much an analytical as well as a synthetic approach, the author has been struck by the confusion and superficiality reigning in this vital, complex area, and has recognized the need to link theory with practice and the present with the future. The book begins by defining the actual situation and the basic factors which will determine the evolution of energy consumption. From it will come an estimate of probable needs for the decades to come. Separate chapters discuss topics such as primary energy resources; the use that is made of them in useful energy; the transformation chains between the primary form and the useful form and the corresponding flows; and methods applied to produce this energy. This work is aimed at anyone wishing to acquire general information on the economics of energy. The author's intention is that it should correspond to that which any university student should know of the matter, and especially to that which should not be unknown to any engineer aware that he should not be just a specialist but must take his share of responsibility in the economic evolution of that part of society to which he belongs.

CHAPTER 1

PROBABLE EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY

Publisher Summary

This chapter discusses the basic factors that determine the evolution of global energy consumptions. At present, there is an unprecedented increase in consumption and in the demands for consumption. This can be attributed not only to the advances in production techniques and in the transformation and consumption of energy but also to a steady and steep growth in world population. This kind of steep incremental growth in demand has caused rising concerns for stabilization in the demand gradient for energy. This can be thought of as a symptom of an overall economic progress globally, which has led to an unwarranted excess want for resources. A stabilization of these pseudo needs is only possible to the extent that each person modifies his conception of life and arrives at a state of satisfaction with what he has without comparing it with what others have or could have. There is no energy crisis but a continuous evolution of technologies and sources of supply and a continuous change in relationships of economic and political dependence.

§a Background

Before discussing in detail matters such as the form of energy (primary, useful, etc.), the importance of production, the distribution of consumption and of reserves, transport and many other problems, it is appropriate to give a view of the total energy needs for the whole of humanity and of the most important factors which will probably determine the evolution of these needs in the future. This global approach is necessary in order that specific problems be positioned later in a proper perspective.

Many men aspire to a life less strained by the search for material progress and profit; they show strong desires that efforts be undertaken to stabilise economic conditions, that the quality of life should become a dominant concern, that, in short, humanity should define its goals and take better control of its own future.

These preoccupations and desires appear in the concern for safeguarding the environment, for economising the reserves and in other ways. These aspirations correspond to deep individual needs and it is vital to give them a higher priority. These preoccupations are apparent especially in the industrialised countries where a relatively high standard of living has already been attained by a large part of the population.

Nevertheless, we must not lose sight of the fact that other equally fundamental requirements contribute to the determination of the evolution of energy needs; to ignore them would lead to a utopian view of the future. We refer particularly to the growth of the world’s population and to the advancement of the less developed countries.

The purpose of the present chapter is therefore to define the actual situation and to attempt to define the basic factors which will determine the evolution. From it will come an estimate of probable needs for the decades to come.

Obviously the reality at the end of the century will differ, more or less, from the picture formed today. But this does not exempt us from attempting to forecast now the pattern which will lead us there. It is only by starting from a hypothesis of the evolution of events that a choice of strategy may later be made to minimise the inevitable disadvantages. In other words, only a forecast – however imprecise – allows the adoption of the appropriate options at the right time.

If there is one fact characteristic of our time from the technical and economic viewpoints, it is the extraordinary growth in the demand for energy due to the recent advances in production techniques and in the transformation and consumption of that energy.¹

During many centuries, the development of science and technology was relatively slow, especially in the field of construction: some remarkable works are 2000–6000 years old (walls, vaults, bridges, etc.); equally, certain hydraulic works are very old (3000–4000 years old). Good cement has been made for 2000 years and glass is not younger, nor is iron-working.

But, two centuries ago, three new phenomena appeared which tended to overthrow our actual life patterns.

The first was the appearance of machinery: industrial civilisation took off as a result of Renaissance ideas and the growth of scientific thought which stemmed from them. The second was the demographic explosion, following the improvements in hygiene and the advances in medical science which also came from the growth of scientific thought. The third was the geographical expansion which enlarged the scope of the two previous phenomena to densely populated regions (India, Indonesia, China, etc.).

A very powerful process was thus set in motion, aiming at ensuring an increased material comfort to wider and wider circles of an ever-increasing population. This process involves all the mechanisms of economic life, industrial, technical and scientific as well as financial and commercial. Among the main conditions necessary to this process is the availability of energy in increasing quantities.

Thus only two centuries ago, the steam engine appeared. The cost of mechanical work dropped rapidly and the means of work available multiplied; a phenomenal industrial development started.

A century later, electric machines appeared, then some 30 years ago nuclear reactors and transistors, opening the way to information sciences.

Thus, in matters concerning energy, humanity entered an era of more and more rapid evolution about a century ago.

It has been estimated that in 1880 the commercial² use of primary energy was on average less than 6 GJ/yr per inhabitant.³ This was mainly made up of the production of heat. For purposes of comparison, the physical work that a man can do in a year is on average about 0.5 GJ.

Today, for the whole population of our planet, the average consumption of energy is of the order of 60 GJ/yr per person.¹ It has therefore increased by a factor of 10 in one century.

Still, this enormous increase only corresponds to an annual mean growth of 3%. We measure thus the role of the duration (here one century) when dealing with an increase of constant annual growth (exponential increase).

The annual increase in total energy consumption (not per capita) was therefore at about 5% before the current economic recession (3% of energy per inhabitant + 2% from population).

If we take the hypothesis that this growth rate of some 5% per year will continue (as discussed later), consumption will increase by a factor of 3 from now until the end of the ce...

Table of contents

• Cover image
• Title page
• Table of Contents
• Other Titles of Interest
• Copyright
• FOREWORD
• PREFACE
• Chapter 1: PROBABLE EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY
• Chapter 2: DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES OF ENERGY
• Chapter 3: DISTRIBUTION OF THE CONSUMPTION OF ENERGY
• Chapter 4: TRANSFORMATION OF ENERGY
• Chapter 5: METHODS OF PRODUCTION
• Chapter 6: TRANSPORT AND STORAGE
• Chapter 7: ELECTRICITY AND HYDROCARBONS
• Chapter 8: THE COST OF ENERGY
• Chapter 9: ENVIRONMENT AND LOSSES
• Chapter 10: EVOLUTION AND PERSPECTIVES
• BIBLIOGRAPHY
• INDEX