Climate Adaptation Engineering

Risks and Economics for Infrastructure Decision-Making

Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga, Mark G. Stewart

• Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
• Year: 2019
• ISBN:
  9780128168400
• Topic: Technology & Engineering
• Subtopic: Construction & Architectural Engineering
• Index: Technology & Engineering

Climate Adaptation Engineering defines the measures taken to reduce vulnerability and increase the resiliency of built infrastructure. This includes enhancement of design standards, structural strengthening, utilisation of new materials, and changes to inspection and maintenance regimes, etc. The book examines the known effects and relationships of climate change variables on infrastructure and risk-management policies. Rich with case studies, this resource will enable engineers to develop a long-term, self-sustained assessment capacity and more effective risk-management strategies. The book's authors also take a long-term view, dealing with several aspects of climate change. The text has been written in a style accessible to technical and non-technical readers with a focus on practical decision outcomes.

• Provides climate scenarios and their likelihoods, hazard modelling (wind, flood, heatwaves, etc.), infrastructure vulnerability, resilience or exposure (likelihood and extent of damage)
• Introduces the key concepts needed to assess the risks, costs and benefits of future proofing infrastructures in a changing climate
• Includes case studies authored by experts from around the world

Part I

Introduction

Chapter One

Introduction to Climate Adaptation Engineering

Mark G. Stewart^*; Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga^{† *} Centre for Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, School of Engineering, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia
^† Research Institute in Civil and Mechanical Engineering, UMR CNRS 6183, Université de Nantes, Nantes Cedex, France

Abstract

Climate change predictions announced significant changes in the current weather patterns that could increase infrastructure vulnerability. Since infrastructure assets are of primary importance for protecting human lives and for providing fundamental societal and economical services, the adaptation of these infrastructure to new demands induced by climate changes becomes paramount for future sustainable development. Within this framework this chapter poses the basis of a concept called ‘Climate Adaptation Engineering’ that aim to improve the response of built infrastructure to future potential climate change effects based on a rational risk-based decision support. The chapter starts by introducing and reviewing basic concepts about climate change impacts and scenarios. This literature review justifies the introduction of a risk-based decision support that integrates climate and hazard, engineering, and fragility models, as well as economical decision tools to perform a comprehensive assessment of the cost-effectiveness of adaptation measures. This risk-based decision support will be illustrated with various study cases in the following chapters of this book.

Keywords

Risk; Climate change; Cost–benefit analysis; Infrastructure; Climate adaptation

Acknowledgements

The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the Université de Nantes, and the Pays de la Loire Regional Council for supporting the project RI-ADAPTCLIM.

1.1 Introduction

Climate change arouses much fear and anxiety in society; and for good reasons, if climate projections are correct, a changing climate will cause sea-level rise, more flooding, and more intense storms and hurricanes, droughts, and other climate extremes. This will affect every nation, and populations in developing countries will be hit hardest. This can, in the worst case, lead to energy and food scarcity, increase the spread of disease, mass migration of ‘climate refugees’, and weaken fragile governments. Urban communities are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate, and “Rapid urbanization and the growth of megacities, especially in developing countries, have led to the emergence of highly vulnerable urban communities, particularly through informal settlements and inadequate land management” (IPCC, 2012).

The focus of this chapter (and this book) is on technological innovation and adaptive behaviours—that is, the future proofing of infrastructure to climate change for future generations, economies, and environments. The impact of climate change on infrastructure performance is a temporal and spatial process, but most existing models of infrastructure performance are based on a stationary climate. For example, the World Bank states that “Despite the ability to quantify future risk (albeit with uncertainty), risk assessments typically fail to account for changing climate, population, urbanization, and environmental conditions” (World Bank, 2016). Hence, there is a need to quantify the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. Climate adaptation engineering involves estimating the risks, costs and benefits of climate adaptation strategies, and assessing at what point in time climate adaptation becomes economically viable. Climate adaptation measures aim to reduce the vulnerability or increase the resiliency of built infrastructure to a changing climate, this may include, for example, enhancement of design standards, retrofitting or strengthening of existing structures, utilisation of new materials, and changes to inspection and maintenance regimes. Engineers have a unique capability to model infrastructure vulnerability, and these skills will be essential to modelling future climate impacts, and measures to ameliorate these losses.

The climate change literature places more emphasis on impact modelling than on climate adaptation engineering modelling. This is to be expected when the current political and social environment is focused on mitigating (reducing) CO₂ emissions. The impacts on people and infrastructure may be considerable if there is no climate adaptation engineering to the existing and new infrastructure. Some posit that climate change may even be a threat to national security, but Stewart (2014) suggests that climate change threats to US national security are modest and manageable. On the other hand, higher temperatures in higher latitude regions such as Russia and Canada can be beneficial through higher agricultural yields, lower winter mortality, lower heating requirements, and a potential boost to tourism (Stern, 2007).

There is seldom mention of probabilities, quantitative measures of vulnerability, or the likelihood or extent of losses in ‘risk’ and ‘risk management’ reports on climate change and infrastructure. While useful for initial risk screening, intuitive and judgement-based risk assessments are of limited utility to complex decision-making since there are often a number of climate scenarios, adaptation options, limited funds, and doubts about the cost-effectiveness of adaptation options. In this case, the decision maker may still be uncertain about the best course of action, and so a detailed risk analysis is required (e.g., AS 5334-2013). For this reason, there is a need for sound system and probabilistic modelling that integrates the engineering performance of infrastructure with the latest developments in stochastic modelling, structural reliability, and decision theory. Such an approach is a logical extension of disaster risk management. The emphasis of the book is built infrastructure. This accords with the World Bank (2016) for the need for the “construction of buildings, infrastructure, and urban developments should consider how design, construction practices, and construction materials will affect disaster risk in both current and future climates”.

The cost to mitigate CO₂ emissions is considerable. Stern (2007) estimated that to stabilise CO₂ levels at 550 ppm (by reducing total emissions to three quarters of today’s levels by 2050), it would cost 1.0%–3.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), with a central estimate of approximately 1%. The mean estimate would result in an annual mitigation cost of approximately $720 billion. This is a stupendous sum, and so a pivotal question becomes: is this the best option, or are there others? This is the question that Bjorn Lomborg posed to a group of experts—they found that climate change action ranked very low when compared with other hazard and risk-reducing measures, in this case the benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) for CO₂ mitigation was only 0.9 (not cost-effective), but increased to 2.9 for a mix of mitigation and adaptation strategies (Lomborg, 2009). Yohe et al. (2009) found that a global investment of $18 billion per year in ‘R&D (research and development) and mitigation’ can halve ‘business as usual’ CO₂ emissions by 2100. Such actions would reduce the impact of climate change by at least 60%. The key here is R&D where innovation can be an important driver to reducing CO₂ emissions.

Some of the more dire predictions of food and energy insecurity, and mass migration can be ameliorated by funding climate adaptation measures in the developing world. Adaptation measures to reduce vulnerability of infrastructure, coastal zones, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and human health to climate change hazards would include: flood control dikes and levees, dams, cyclone shelters, storm and flood-resistant housing, improved communication infrastructure, resettlement of populations to lower risk zones, and improved health care. The World Bank (2010) estimated that the cost to the developing world of adapting to an approximately 2°C warmer world by 2050 is approximately $75 billion per year. This represents about one-tenth of 1% of world GDP. Clearly, investing in targeted a...

Table of contents

• Cover image
• Title page
• Table of Contents
• Copyright
• Contributors
• Preface
• Acknowledgements
• Part I: Introduction
• Part II: Case Studies for Infrastructure
• Part III: Case Studies for Buildings
• Part IV: Conclusions and Recommendations
• Index