Mineral Resources and Energy

Future Stakes in Energy Transition

Olivier Vidal

• Publisher: ISTE Press - Elsevier
• Year: 2017
• ISBN:
  9780081023822
• Topic: Physical Sciences
• Subtopic: Geology & Earth Sciences

Our consumption of raw materials and energy has reached unprecedented levels which are continuing to increase at a steady rate due to the economic emergence of many countries and the development of new technologies. Metal and cement usage has doubled since the beginning of the 21st Century and this production, between now and 2050, will be equivalent to that produced since the beginning of humanity.

It is in this context that the transition to low-carbon and renewable energies is taking place, which involves profound changes to the existing global energy system.

This book addresses these different aspects and attempts to estimate first-order requirements for cement, steel, copper, aluminum and energy for different power generation technologies, and for three types of energy scenarios. Some dynamic modeling approaches are proposed to assess the needs and likely evolution of primary production and recycling. The link between production and primary reserves, recycling and stocks of end-of-life products, production costs, incomes and prices using a prey–predator dynamic is discussed.

• Approaches the issues of commodities and energy in terms of needs, technological innovation and economic and social issues
• Emphasizes the couplings between these different aspects
• Helps readers understand and integrate these couplings through global modeling

1

Framework and Challenges

Abstract

The industrialization of developed countries has led to an increase in productivity of all human activities and to the replacement of labor by humans and animals with that of machines fueled by fossil fuels. This industrialization, which began in Europe in the 19th Century and which is currently taking place in developing countries, brings about many social, economic, demographic and technological changes. These developments at the global level are illustrated by the apparent exponential growth of all indicators of prosperity, human activity and its impacts. The growth of the population and its urban proportion, the increase in economic activity, average income and the standard of living lead to an equally exponential growth of energy and raw material needs.

Keywords

Carbon neutrality; Energy consumption; Energy transition; Gross domestic product (GDP); Mineral resources; The Paris Agreement of COP 21; Rare-earth elements (REEs)

1.1 The strong growth of mineral resources and energy consumption

The industrialization of developed countries has led to an increase in productivity of all human activities and to the replacement of labor by humans and animals with that of machines fueled by fossil fuels. This industrialization, which began in Europe in the 19th Century and which is currently taking place in developing countries, brings about many social, economic, demographic and technological changes. These developments at the global level are illustrated by the apparent exponential growth of all indicators of prosperity, human activity and its impacts [STE 14]. The growth of the population and its urban proportion, the increase in economic activity, average income and the standard of living lead to an equally exponential growth of energy and raw material needs (Figure 1.1).

Figure 1.1 Historical evolution of the various indicators of prosperity and human activity: (a) standardized trends in world population, urban population, GDP and primary energy consumed; (b) to (d) changes in annual production of cement and various metals. For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/vidal/energy.zip

The human race is currently using mineral resources at an unprecedented level with about 70 billion tons extracted annually [WIE 15]. Aggregates, cement, sand, metals and industrial minerals are at the forefront as they are used to build urban infrastructure, consumer and production goods, including energy production and use. The industrial and economic development of a country can be broken down into two main stages:

– The first stage includes the construction of basic infrastructure such as housing, infrastructure, transport and communication, production, transmission and distribution of energy, heavy industry, etc.

Urban density is also a contributing factor to residential consumption [SAF 07]. The transition from a rural to an urban lifestyle leads to the transition from biomass energy to fossil energy. Energy efficiency has generally increased, but its uses are more demanding and diversified, such as the use of air conditioning for instance. Between 1990 and 2012, the proportion of the population of China residing in cities rose from 26 to 52%, and according to the World Bank, residential energy consumption increased fourfold over the same period. According to the International Energy Agency [IEA 16], energy consumption for the residential sector increased by 7.7% per year between 1998 and 2012 and per capita energy use increased at the same rate between 2001 and 2012, while that of OECD countries fell by 0.8% per year. This development phase consumes mainly “structural” raw materials such as concrete, steel and other base metals such as copper and aluminum. After a strong period of growth, annual consumption stabilizes or begins to decline [BLE 16], with an increase in the standard of living from about US$ 15,000-20,000 of gross domestic product (GDP) per year per inhabitant for steel, US $25,000 for concrete [DAV 14] and US$ 30,000 for copper¹. According to the International Monetary Fund, a significant number of countries with large populations currently have a real GDP per capita of less than $ 15,000, including China, Indonesia, the Philippines, India, Pakistan and some African countries. As in the case of developed countries, their emergence is inevitably associated with an increase in the consumption of raw materials used for the construction of buildings and basic infrastructure. This is illustrated by the strong growth since the 2000s, as observed in Figure 1.1, of steel and concrete (+ 6%/yr), aluminum (+ 5%/yr), copper (+ 3%/yr), boosted by the very rapid emergence of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and of course China). Chromium (+ 5%/yr), manganese (+ 6%/yr), nickel (+ 5%/yr) or zinc (+ 4%/an) are following the same trends.

The increase in world population to nine billion by 2050 and the rise in the standard of living of the poorest countries, which accounted for 85% of the world’s population in 2005 and consumed only 10% of the most common metals (Figure 1.2), will undoubtedly increase the need for mineral resources and raw materials until the middle of the 21st Century. It is estimated that the maximum stock of iron and steel in developed societies is about 10 t per inhabitant [RAU 09, MUL 11, WIE 15]. Beyond this, the level of consumption corresponds to that needed to replace and maintain the stock level, i.e. about 500 kg/inhabitant/yr. By comparison, the average world iron and steel stocks per capita is estimated to be about 2.7 t and the annual global average consumption is about 200 kg/inhabitant/yr [MÜL 06, ALL 12, MÜL 11]. To move from a current stock of 2.7 t/inhabitant for a population of 7 billion to a stock of 10 t/inhabitant for 9 billion individuals, 71 Gt of iron and steel would have to be produced, assuming there is no loss. This would represent 85% of known reserves². For this evolution to take place in 35 years, the average steel production must reach 3 Gt/year in 2050, twice the current production rate. According to Grädel [GRÄ 11b] and Grädel and Cao [GRÄ 10], the total quantity of metals to be produced by 2050 and the flux of used metals could be 5 to 10 times the current values.

Figure 1.2 Estimate of the stock per capita of different metals. The blue bars represent the more-developed countries (860 M people); the red bars represent the less-developed countries (5,620 M people). For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/vidal/energy.zip Data source: [UNE 10b]

– In a second stage, when “structural” raw materials needs stabilize, developed countries are moving towards advanced technology, particularly in the sectors of electronics, automation, information and communication, energy, production and supply chains. Advanced technologies require new raw materials and mineral resources. At the beginning of the 20^th Century, metal consumption was limited mainly to iron, copper, lead and zinc and silver, which had the desired basic physical and chemical properties such as hardness, malleability, corrosion resistance, density, conductivity or electrical resistivity. Advanced technologies use many additional properties, including electronic structure, catalytic, quantum or semi-conductive properties specific to almost all elements of the periodic table. There is a need for rare metals, which have been used for only a few decades and produced in quantities lower than base metals, but whose annual production growth can reach record levels (around 10%/yr for antimony, beryllium, cobalt, gallium, germanium, lithium, molybdenum and some rare earth metals, Figure 1.1). Over the past decade, there has been increased focus on these enormous growth rates and the heavy dependence of most wealthy countries on imports of technological metals. While it is certain that their consumption will continue to increase in the future, a quantified assessment is still difficult, as it depends on the rapid but difficult to predict technological evolution. These, unlike structural mineral resources, cannot be substituted for all their applications. Another difference is that technological metals are often by-products of the extraction of a major metal that accounts for the financial profitability of mining. If the demand for a by-product metal increases, it is not possible to increase production because it is the demand for the supporting metal that determines the level of production.

The increase in consumption of raw materials and energy is the result of three main factors: population growth, industrial development and an increase in the average standard of living. These developments are accompanied by a massive increase in the exploitation of increasingly diversified mineral raw materials, first with steel, cement and copper, light metals (Al, Mg, etc.), then rare metals and very pure materials for advanced technology, such as rare-earth elements (REEs) or silicon for example. Between 1940 and 2010, the world’s population increased threefold, while during the same period consumption increased fiftyfold for cement, eightfold for steel, manganese, copper and zinc, twenty-fivefold for platinum and much more for all the elements used in advanced technologies. This growth is not expected to decline globally in the decades to come, as we are in a very dynamic phase that is the result of the simultaneous growth of the Chinese economy and the rapid emergence of advanced technology. The rest of Asia, India and Africa have the opportunity to follow the Chinese evolution and current projections indicate that the cumulative amount of metals to be produced over the next 40 years will exceed the cumulative amount that has been produced to date.

1.2 Mineral resources and energy in the context of energy transition

The invention of the steam engine was at the origin of the Industrial Revolution, worldwide trade of materials and the increasing demand for mineral resources, including metals. The use of copper made it possible to increase the efficiency of boilers. Alloyed with tin, it allowed the production of bronze, used for the bearings needed for many mechanical devices, including machine tools. Steel producers then noticed the profits associated with the addition of chromium and manganese. The invention of the combustion engine was a second revolution that generated the production of a whole infrastructure for the production and transport of hydrocarbons, its processing by the petrochemical and gas industry, but also the different means of locomotion and personal vehicles produced over a century. This rapid evolution has been possible due to the access to cheap and abundant fossil energy. This situation is likely to change because the emissions of carbon dioxide, particulate matter and other combustion-related components have worrying environmental consequences, whether on climate and global warming or air quality in large urban areas. The Paris Agreement of COP 21 (the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties), which plans to achieve “carbon neutrality” sometime between 2050 and 2100, will involve a massive reduction of carbon dioxide emissions and an in-depth revision of the existing global fossil energy-based system. This will require a thorough overhaul of the existing energy system, which is mainly based on fossil fuels and coal worldwide, and possibly a significant reduction in the amount of energy used. Transition to less carbon-emitting energy requires new materials. This is true both for the nuclear sector and for the generation, storage and distribution of electricity generated from renewable sources. In any case, new infrastructures have to be built using “structural” ra...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title page
• Table of Contents
• Copyright
• Foreword
• 1: Framework and Challenges
• 2: General Information on Mineral Raw Materials and Metals
• 3: Energy Requirements of the Mining and Metallurgical Industries
• 4: Raw Materials for Energy
• 5: Average Material Intensity for Various Modes of Electricity Production
• 6: Dynamic Modeling
• Conclusion
• Bibliography
• Index