Abstract:
People live with a constant risk of disaster. This chapter explains how risks are managed by risk assessment, risk evaluation and taking measures to control risk. These measures have to be dependable to be effective, as measured by their reliability, maintainability and availability. All these matters are part of the process of managing risk and these concepts are explained in simple terms with easy to understand examples from real life disasters. Some guidance on general precepts is given to underline the principles involved.
1.1 Introduction
In the 21st century more and more people live and work in a man-made environment. They depend on engineering and the application of science and technology for housing, electrical and gas supplies, water supplies, the processing of sewage and refuse, transport, communications, the production of raw materials, and even the way food is produced. The effects of global warming, the need to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and the rising world population will intensify this situation. They already understand the impact on the environment due to the use of hydrocarbon fuels for transportation and the generation of electricity. People need to understand the risks to their health and safety.
The dependability of public services is usually taken for granted, and that all needs will be fulfilled as and when required. However, the ever-present dangers that people live under are mostly unseen and unheard until disaster strikes. But, once in a while, the public are shocked out of their complacency with industrial disasters that affect whole towns and communities. For example the railway accidents that occurred in the United Kingdom (UK) during the years 1998–2008, with many dead and injured, had an immediate effect and resulted in a complete reorganisation of the railway infrastructure and management.
Concern over industrial accidents and the pollution from its waste and emissions has resulted in legal requirements that have now extended to every situation to protect the health and safety of workers and the general public. Over the years it has become recognised that the duty of care has to be a team effort that extends up to senior management. In recognition of this, the UK in 2007 established the criminal offence of corporate manslaughter and corporate homicide to deal with failings in risk management. In risk management the initiating action required is that of risk assessment.
1.2 The principles of risk assessment
An approach suitable for assessing risk in the work place is a five-step procedure:1
• Identify the hazards.
• Decide who might be harmed and how.
• Evaluate the risks and decide on precautions.
• Record the findings and implement them.
• Review the assessment and update as necessary.
However, the general principle of risk assessment in industry2 is based on the key elements as follows:
• Identifying hazards, which have a potential for harm.
• Risk is defined as the probability that a hazardous event could occur.
• Consequence is the harm resulting from a hazardous event occurring.
• Risk assessment is the consideration of risk and the consequences of a hazardous event in order to decide if any action is necessary to avoid or to reduce the risk.
• Record the results of the risk assessment and the action taken.
These are very simple concepts to put in place and yet a doctor was heard to say that if she were to worry about risk nothing would ever be done. A headmaster thought that risks should be avoided by cancelling all school excursions. These attitudes, which are all too prevalent, completely miss the point. People need to stop, and think of what could go wrong, and think of measures that will help to prevent those that are unacceptable from happening.
Every time someone crosses a busy road they make a risk assessment. If they are elderly and cannot move very fast they wait until there is no traffic. Younger people will assess the speed and distance of the oncoming traffic, to judge if they can safely cross. Once in a while a young man jogging across a common, runs out across a major road without stopping to make a risk assessment and gets killed by oncoming traffic; people need to stop and think.
In industry there are many complex situations that need to be managed, for these a risk matrix is useful as a qualitative method for conducting a risk assessment to determine its acceptability. Typically this risk assessment process is carried out by a team of multi-discipline engineers and can also involve specialist engineers for more complex situations. The views of each team member and the collective judgement in reaching decisions are essential to ensure all risks are fully understood and recognised.
1.3 The risk assessment matrix
The risk assessment matrix is carried out by formulating a severity level table and a likelihood table so that the selection of the value from the two then provides the risk ranking, which gives an indication of its acceptability.
1.3.1 Severity level
The severity level table can be used for many different situations and the level criteria formulated to suit. For example if it is to do with physical danger to a person it could be based on the level of injury. Table 1.1 shows a typical severity level table.
Table 1.1
Severity level
Class | Level | Definition (any one or more) |
1 | Serious | In-plant fatality; public fatalities; extensive property damage; serious and long-term environmental damage; 2 or more days extended downtime |
2 | High | Lost time injury; public injuries or impact; significant property damage; environmental impact exceeding regulation standards; downtime of 1–2 days |
3 | Medium | Minor injury; moderate property damage; minimum short-term environmental damage; 4–24 hours downtime; disruption of product quality |
4 | Low | No worker injuries; minor property damage; no environmental impact; downtime less than 4 hours |
5 | Minor | No worker injuries, property damage or environmental impact; recoverable operational problem |
1.3.2 Likelihood
Table 1.2 shows a typical likelihood table. This shows four levels but sometimes using five may be more appropriate depending on the circumstances.
Table 1.2
Likelihood level
Class | Level | Frequency of occurrence |
1 | Frequent | Potential to occur frequently (many times a year) |
2 | Occasional | Potential to occur occasionally (once a year) |
3 | Moderate | Potential to occur under unusual circumstances (once or twice in facility lifetime) |
4 | Unlikely | Could possibly occur, or known to occur within the same industry, but not likely to occur over the facility lifetime |
Ranking matrix
Risk ranking is a qualitative assessment that depends on the ...