Transition Scenarios

China and the United States in the Twenty-First Century

David P. Rapkin, William R. Thompson

• Publisher: University of Chicago Press
• Year: 2013
• ISBN:
  9780226040509
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Politics
• Index: Politics & International Relations

China's rising status in the global economy alongside recent economic stagnation in Europe and the United States has led to considerable speculation that we are in the early stages of a transition in power relations. Commentators have tended to treat this transitional period as a novelty, but history is in fact replete with such systemic transitions—sometimes with perilous results. Can we predict the future by using the past? And, if so, what might history teach us? With Transition Scenarios, David P. Rapkin and William R. Thompson identify some predictors for power transitions and take readers through possible scenarios for future relations between China and the United States. Each scenario is embedded within a particular theoretical framework, inviting readers to consider the assumptions underlying it. Despite recent interest in the topic, the probability and timing of a power transition—and the processes that might bring it about—remain woefully unclear. Rapkin and Thompson's use of the theoretical tools of international relations to crucial transitions in history helps clarify the current situation and also sheds light on possible future scenarios.

Table of contents

• Cover
• Copyright
• Title Page
• Contents
• Acknowledgments
• 1. Twenty-First-Century Transition Struggles
• 2. Scenario Construction
• 3. Scenarios of Future United States–China Warfare: What Is Missing from This Picture?
• 4. Power-Transition, Offensive-Realism, and Leadership Long-Cycle Perspectives on Structural Transitions
• 5. Systemic Transition Dynamics and the Conflict Drivers in the China–United States Transition Context
• 6. Constraints on Transition Conflict
• 7. Weak Conflict Constraints and Weak Conflict Inducements: The “More of the Same” and “Pax Americana II” Scenarios
• 8. Weak Conflict Constraints and Strong Conflict Inducements: The “Transition War” Scenario
• 9. Strong Conflict Constraints and Strong Conflict Inducements: The “Pax Sinica” Scenario
• 10. Strong Conflict Constraints and Weak Conflict Inducements: The “Liberal Peace” Scenario
• 11. Using the Scenarios in the Twenty-First Century
• Notes
• Index