National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report

Alberto Alesina, Francesco Giavazzi, Alberto Alesina, Francesco Giavazzi

• Publisher: University of Chicago Press
• Year: 2013
• ISBN:
  9780226018584
• Topic: Business
• Subtopic: Business General
• Index: Business

The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on highly political issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. In the face of uncertainty over the sustainability of recent economic policies, further contributions to this volume discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy. A direct intervention in timely debates, Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis offers invaluable insights about various responses to the recent financial crisis.

1

Government Spending and Private Activity

Valerie A. Ramey*

1.1 Introduction

The potential stimulus effects of fiscal policy have once again become an active area of academic research. Before the Great Recession, the few researchers who estimated the effects of government spending did so in order to understand which macroeconomic models were the best approximation to the economy. Rather than analyzing differences in estimated multipliers, most of the literature debated whether the movements of key variables, such as real wages and consumption, were more consistent with Keynesian or neoclassical views of fiscal policy (e.g., Rotemberg and Woodford 1992; Ramey and Shapiro 1998; Blanchard and Perotti 2002; Burnside, Eichenbaum, and Fisher 2004; and Perotti 2008). Starting with the stimulus debate, however, the focus shifted to empirical estimates of multipliers. In Ramey (2011b), I surveyed the growing recent literature that estimates government spending multipliers in aggregate national data as well as in state panel data. Reviewing that literature, I found that the range of estimates of the GDP multiplier is often as wide within studies as it is across studies. I concluded that the multiplier for a deficit-financed temporary increase in government spending probably lies somewhere between 0.8 and 1.5, but could be as low as 0.5 or as high as 2.

Two of the key questions for deciding whether policymakers should use government spending for short-run stabilization policy are: (1) Can an increase in government spending stimulate the economy in a way that raises private spending? and (2) Can an increase in government spending raise employment and lower unemployment? With respect to the first question, if an increase in government spending raises GDP without raising private sector spending, then private welfare does not necessarily rise. With respect to the second question, most economists and policymakers would agree that job creation is at least as important a goal as stimulating output. In theory, one can use Okun’s law to translate GDP multipliers to unemployment multipliers. However, because of variations in the parameters of this “law” over time, the advent of jobless recoveries, and the frictions involved in creating and filling jobs, the translation of output multipliers to employment or unemployment multipliers is not straightforward. Thus, it makes sense to devote as much attention to the employment effects of government spending as to the output effects.

This chapter empirically studies the effect of government spending on private spending, unemployment, and employment. I define private spending to be GDP less government spending. I show that whether one uses structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) or expectational vector autoregressions (EVARs), whether the sample includes World War II and Korea or excludes them, an increase in government spending never leads to a significant rise in private spending. In fact, in most cases it leads to a significant fall. These results imply that the government spending multiplier is more likely below one rather than above one.

These estimates are based on samples in which part of the increase in government spending is financed by an increase in tax rates, so the multipliers are not necessarily the ones applicable to current debates on deficit-financed stimulus packages. I thus explore two different ways to adjust for the increase in taxes in order to determine a deficit-financed government spending multiplier. One method uses the VARs to create counterfactuals and the other uses more structural instrumental variables estimates. Surprisingly, both methods suggest that the behavior of marginal tax rates does not have a significant effect on the size of the spending multiplier.

In the final part of the chapter I investigate the effects of government spending on unemployment and employment. I begin by conducting a case study of labor markets during the World War II period. I then use the VAR methods on various samples and find that an increase in government spending lowers unemployment. However, I find the surprising result that in the great majority of time periods and specifications, all of the increase in employment after a positive shock to government spending is due to an increase in government employment, not private employment. There is only one exception. These results suggest that the employment effects of government spending work through the direct hiring of workers, not stimulating the private sector to hire more workers.

1.2 Background

1.2.1 Output Multipliers

There has been a dramatic increase in research on the output multiplier in the last few years. The aggregate studies that estimate the multiplier fit in two general categories. The first are the studies that use long spans of annual data and regress the growth rate of GDP on current and one lag of defense spending, or government spending instrumented by defense spending (e.g., Hall 2009; Barro and Redlick 2011). These studies tend to find multipliers that are less than one. The second type are the VARs estimated on quarterly data, such as those used by Ramey and Shapiro (1998), Blanchard and Perotti (2002), Mountford and Uhlig (2009), Fisher and Peters (2010), Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012), and Ramey (2011c). Some of these papers calculate the multipliers based on comparing the peak of the government spending response to the peak of the GDP response. Others compare the area under the two impulse response functions. As I discuss in my forum piece for the Journal of Economic Literature (Ramey 2011b), the range of multiplier estimates are often as wide within studies as across studies. An interesting, but unnoticed, pattern arises from this literature. In particular, the Blanchard-Perotti style SVARs yield smaller multipliers than the expectational VARs (EVARS), such as the ones used in my work. This result is intriguing because the SVARs tend to find rises in consumption whereas the EVARs tend to find falls in consumption in response to an increase in government spending. Overall, most output multiplier estimates from the aggregate literature tend to lie between 0.5 and 1.5.

There are also numerous papers that use cross-sections or panels of states to estimate the effects of an increase in government spending in a state on that state’s income. These papers typically find multipliers of about 1.5. However, translating these state-level multipliers to aggregate multipliers is tricky, as discussed in Ramey (2011b).

While the explicit instrumental variables frameworks with few dynamics provide statistical confidence bands around the implied multipliers, the VAR-based literature does not. Typically, the VAR literature provides separate impulse responses of government spending, GDP, and the spending subcomponents, and then calculates an implied multiplier by either comparing the peak response of GDP to the peak response of government spending, or comparing the integral under the two impulse response functions. As I will show later, a simple permutation of the VAR makes it easy to provide confidence intervals of the multiplier relative to unity.

1.2.2 Labor Market Effects of Government Spending

A few of the older papers and a growing number of recent papers have studied government spending effects on labor markets. Most of the studies that exploit cross-state or locality variation focus on employment as much as income. For example, Davis, Loungani, and Mahidhara (1997) and Hooker and Knetter (1997) were among the first to study the effects of defense spending shocks on employment in a panel of states. Nakamura and Steinsson (2011) study similar effects in updated data. Fishback and Kachanovskaya (2010) analyze the effects of various New Deal programs during the 1930s on states and localities. Chodorow-Reich et al. (2012) and Wilson (2012) estimate the effects of the recent American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) on employment using cross-state variation. As summarized by Ramey (2011b), on average these and related studies produce estimates that imply that each $35,000 of government spending produces one extra job. However, some of these studies, such as by Wilson (201...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Copyright
• Title Page
• Series Page
• National Bureau of Economic Research
• Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research
• Contents
• Acknowledgments
• Introduction
• 1. Government Spending and Private Activity
• 2. Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion
• 3. The Household Effects of Government Spending
• 4. The Role of Growth Slowdowns and Forecast Errors in Public Debt Crises
• 5. Game Over: Simulating Unsustainable Fiscal Policy
• 6. How Do Laffer Curves Differ across Countries?
• 7. Perceptions and Misperceptions of Fiscal Inflation
• 8. The “Austerity Myth”: Gain without Pain?
• 9. Can Public Sector Wage Bills Be Reduced?
• 10. Entitlement Reforms in Europe: Policy Mixes in the Current Pension Reform Process
• 11. “Fiscal Devaluation” and Fiscal Consolidation: The VAT in Troubled Times
• 12. Fiscal Rules: Theoretical Issues and Historical Experiences
• 13. The Electoral Consequences of Large Fiscal Adjustments
• Notes
• Contributors
• Author Index
• Subject Index