Computing Risk for Oil Prospects: Principles and Programs

J.W. Harbaugh, J.C. Davis, J. Wendebourg

• Publisher: Pergamon
• Year: 1995
• ISBN:
  9780080529509
• Topic: Physical Sciences
• Subtopic: Geology & Earth Sciences

The petroleum industry is enduring difficult financial times because of the continuing depressed price of crude oil on the world market. This has caused major corporate restructuring and reductions in staff throughout the industry. Because oil exploration must now be done with fewer people under more difficult economic constraints, it is essential that the most effective and efficient procedures be used. Computing Risk for Oil Prospects describes how prospect risk assessment — predicting the distribution of financial gains or losses that may result from the drilling of an exploration well — can be done using objective procedures implemented on personal computers. The procedures include analyses of historical data, interpretation of geological and geophysical data, and financial calculations to yield a spectrum of the possible consequences of decisions. All aspects of petroleum risk assessment are covered, from evaluating regional resources, through delineating an individual prospect, to calculation of the financial consequences of alternative decisions and their possible results. The bottom lines are given both in terms of the probable volumes of oil that may be discovered and the expected monetary returns. Statistical procedures are linked with computer mapping and interpretation algorithms, which feed their results directly into routines for financial analysis. The programs in the included library of computer programs are tailored to fit seamlessly together, and are designed for ease and simplicity of operation. The two diskettes supplied are IBM compatible. Full information on loading is given in Appendix A - Software Installation. Risk I diskette contains data files and executables and Risk 2 diskette contains only executables.

The authors contend that the explorationist who develops a prospect should be involved in every facet of its analysis, including risk and financial assessments. This book provides the tools necessary for these tasks.

Table of contents

• Front Cover
• Computing Risk for Oil Prospects:Principles and Programs
• Copyright Page
• CONTENTS
• Foreword
• Preface: Getting Things Rolling
• Chapter 1. The Challenge of Risk Assessment
• Chapter 2. Field Size Distributions
• Chapter 3. Success, Sequence, and Gambler’s Ruin
• Chapter 4. Estimating Discovery Size from Prospect Size
• Chapter 5. Outcome Probabilities and Success Ratios
• Chapter 6. Modeling Prospects
• Chapter 7. Mapping Properties and Uncertainties
• Chapter 8. Discriminating Discoveries and Dry Holes
• Chapter 9. Forecasting Cash Flow for a Prospect
• Chapter 10. The Worth of Money
• Chapter 11. RATS, Decision Tables, and Trees
• Chapter 12. Bringing it Together
• Bibliography
• Appendix A – SOFTWARE INSTALLATION of RISK: Software to perform probabilistic assessments and financial calculations in Computing Risk for Oil Prospects
• Appendix B – RISKSTAT MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform statistical analyses in RISK
• Appendix C – RISKMAP MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform the mapping function in RISK
• Appendix D – RISKTAB MANUAL: Linked computer programs that perform financial calculations in RISK
• Index