CHAPTER ONE Be Afraid, Very Afraid: California as Case Study of Americaâs Possible Future
âCalifornia Is Booming; Itâs Also a Messâ
âNew York Times headline, December 29, 2019
Ahoaryâbut not therefore inaccurateâclichĂ© holds that as goes California, so goes the nation. That is to say, social and political trends that first appear in the Golden State eventuallyâand inevitablyâtake hold throughout America. Examples include the rise of capital-P ProgressivismâHiram Johnson was elected the nationâs first Progressive governor two years before Woodrow Wilson became presidentâthe revolutions of the 1960s, and the tax revolt that in 1978 sparked Californiaâs Proposition 13 and two years later swept another California governor, Ronald Reagan, into the White House.
If the old clichĂ© remains true, then the rest of the country should be afraidâvery afraid. My parentsâ and grandparentsâ Californiaâthe California of my own youthâis long gone. That California was the greatest middle-class paradise in the history of mankind. Its promiseâwhich it mostly deliveredâwas nothing less than the American dream writ large, but better: freer, wealthier, sunnier, happier, more advanced, more future-oriented.
In barely one generation, that California was swept away and transformed into a left-liberal one-party state, the most economically unequal and socially divided in the country, ostensibly run by a cadre of would-be Solons in Sacramento and in the courts, but really by oligarchic power concentrated in a handful of industries, above all Big Tech and Big Hollywood. The middle classâwhatâs left of themâcontinue to flee high taxes, higher costs, cratering standards of living, declining services, deteriorating infrastructure, worsening quality of life, and an elite that openly despises them and pushes policies to despoil and dispossess them.
Despite Californiaâs myriad evident failures, its grandeesâin and out of governmentâconsider the state a rousing success and model for the rest of the country. As do their fellow elites in Washington, New York, college towns, and the other True-Blue strongholds of post-1960s America. Perhaps the purest exemplar of todayâs overclass, Mike BloombergâHarvard grad, Manhattanite, Wall-Streeter, billionaire, presidential aspirant, booster of open borders, open trade, and any and all measures that pound down wagesâgleefully says that âCalifornia can serve as a great example for the rest of this country.â
Hizzoner is hardly alone. With apologies to the Red Hot Chili Peppers, Americaâs bicoastal oligarchs and tastemakers celebrate âCalifornicationâ as a heady brew of technological innovation, economic futurism, environmental consciousness, social enlightenment, and political progressivism. Or, as one Left-Coast booster put it, âgay marriage, medical marijuana, universal health care, immigrant sanctuary, âlivingâ minimum wage, bicycle-friendly streets, stricter environmental and consumer regulations.â
According to the public presentation of this visionâthe marketing brochure copyâthe New California formula provides everything, with no downsides: economic growth and job security; equitable distribution of inherently scarce goods and environmental protection; fantastic innovation alongside regulation that protects against every contingency; endless energy without drilling or carbon emissions; social reengineering with no erosion of the habits necessary for a strong economy or stable societyâall gain, no pain, all the time.
Thereâs an underside to this vision, though: rising inequality and neo-feudalism, a yawning and widening gap between the wealth and political power of the haves and have-nots, demonization and persecution not merely of overt dissent but of passive refusal to celebrate the new order. These aspects the elites donât talk about but quietly also push. âCalifornia is boomingââbut only for them. When they say they want the rest of the nation to look more like California, the stateâs dystopian, oppressive features are a big partâperhaps the biggestâof what they mean.
We shouldnât be surprised. Itâs the nature of an elite to work to augment, entrench, and perpetuate its privilege and power. The questions for the rest of us are: why should we go along, and how can we stop them?
PARADISE LOST
The lands that, since 1850, have encompassed the American state of California are perhaps the most coveted, prized, fertile, livable, productive, and strategically significant in the world. There may be more important choke points: for instance, Istanbul astride the Bosporus and Singapore on the Malacca Strait. New York and London may be more globally dominant in our increasingly financialized economy than San Francisco or Los Angeles. But acre-for-acre, even before a single soul sets foot on it, California is the richest, most temperate, resource-laden, and enviable place in the world.
Yet just as a block of flawless marble requires a sculptor to become a statue, California didnât build itself. The Americans who began trickling in after 1840, then flooding in after 1849, transformed that geographic raw material into what was, briefly, the most politically, socially, and economically successful society the West has ever known.
Californiaâs multitude of natural advantages, combined with the farsighted efforts of its leadership and the rock-solid virtues of its majority middle class, once added up to the nationâs highest standard of living, incomes, educational attainment, health, and general well-being.
The public education systemâat every levelâwas the envy of the world, and its strengths reverberated throughout the state. California schools churned out an extraordinary number of workers ready, willing, and able to man the economy at every level, from necessary and mundane brawn up to and including hard science and high tech. The schoolsâ quality and priceâfree through high school, dirt cheap for post-secondaryâencouraged family formation and high birthrates. And those schools, with the exception of certain corners of the most elite universities, inculcated a unifying ethos that gave Californians a common pride in their country and state along with a common sense of citizenship as both Californians and Americans.
Californiaâs infrastructure, too, was the envy of the world. Despite the natural fertility of the soil, Californiaâexcept on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada, with its (typically) abundant snowpack runoffâlacks sufficient water to fulfill the landâs potential. No matter. Americans provided what nature omitted via the greatest irrigation system built since the Roman aqueductsâand in scope, reach, and sophistication surpassing even those.
Too âspread outâ to make widespread passenger rail practical, economic, or efficient, California instead built the nationâs first and best network of highways and freeways, both to facilitate transportation within metro areas and to knit the state together. Already blessed with two of the worldâs finest natural harborsâthe San Francisco and San Diego BaysâCalifornians built another from scratch and made Los AngelesâLong Beach into the worldâs busiest container port.
Think, also, of all the world-transforming industries that California either invented, pioneered, took over, or indispensably furtheredâincluding railroads, oil, shipbuilding and navigation, automobiles, aerospace, motion pictures and television, nuclear physics, and (of course) computing. Add to these the stateâs excellence in ancient industries such as mining, timber, farming, ranching, and fishing, and you have what is arguably historyâs greatest combination and concentration of old and new.
Despiteâor because ofâall this world-beating success, California was for decades the countryâs âeasiestâ and most pleasant place to live. The vastness of the land and the (relative) sparseness of the population outside the stateâs (then) few concentrated urban centers made the cost of living on par with the national average. Combine that with above-average wages and well-above-average quality of life, and living and working in the state was actually a bargain. The weather aloneâno humidity, very little rain, moderate temperatures, snow only if you seek itâattracted, and still keeps, millions. Then there are the plethora of natural marvelsâbeaches, forests, mountains, deserts, and nine national parksâto explore within a dayâs drive. Man-made amenities included first-rate infrastructure, efficient services funded by moderate taxes, and high standards of living.
Outside the stateâs few truly upper-class enclavesâPacific Heights, Pebble Beach, Beverly Hills, La Jollaâvirtually any man could earn a living and raise a family on one income almost anywhere. Every city, town, and county offered clean, functional housing for every income level, while shared services and infrastructure facilitated a level of social equality across the spectrum. Few even in the upper strata sent their kids to private schools. Beauty and weather aside (the coast is always more temperate than the hot valleys or the cold mountains), there was little difference in quality of life along the glamorous Pacific shoreline than in the vast interior.
It couldnât last. Mid-twentieth-century California was too good a deal, too much of a steal, for people not to come and grab their piece of the California Dream. Which millions didâmostly, at first, other Americans but eventually, and increasingly, foreigners from our South, followed by newcomers from literally everywhere.
Yet the transformation of California wasnât simply inevitable. It was pushed along by deliberate policyâoften including a willful refusal to enforce certain laws, which is itself a policy. Nor did New California just âhappenâ; it was created no less than the Old. Weâll examine the âhowâ below. But first letâs look at the features and contours of modern California.
CALIFORNIA TODAY: SELF-IMAGE
Californiaâs ruling class does an excellent job of presenting preciselyâand onlyâthe image of their state that they want you to see. Their self-image is perhaps best exemplified by the tourism ads the state beams and streams to the rest of the country. In these slickly produced spots, a succession of movie and TV stars, recording artists, famous athletes, politicians, and other luminaries take brief breaks from surfing, skiing, skydiving, sailing, climbing Half Dome, singing, acting, picking wine grapes, or some similarly upmarket and/or ĂŒbermenschy activity to look directly into the camera and entice ordinary Americans to come spend their precious vacation dollars in California. The backdrop, too, is always glamorous: a beach, a movie set, a Napa winery, the Golden Gate Bridge, the Santa Monica Pier, Big Sur, the Avenue of the Giants, and the like.
This is not merely a matter of putting oneâs best foot forward; itâs rather a state whose self-conception pretends that its less-than-glamorous parts simply donât exist. In those ads, freshly paved roads are crawling with hybrid and electric cars on their way to the coastâbut look in vain for pickups traversing potholed gravel beds on their way to a Kern County oil field. Dinner plates are bursting with organic vegetablesâbut the Great Central Valley, 11 percent of the state by land area, where most of that food is grown? Out of sight. As are the various barrios, ghettos, trailer parks, tent cities, and people sleeping in their cars. All of those are integral to modern California, too, but Californiaâs grandees donât want you to noticeâor know aboutâany of them.
In the real California, six big industries dominate: technology, entertainment, tourism, the ports (Chinese container ships donât unload themselves), agriculture, and government. Californiaâs image-makers prefer to focus on the first three, with limited nods to agriculture (cult Cabs and artisanal cheese, yes; Salinas Valley lettuce or Fresno County raisins, no) and government. Not, needless to say, the latterâs competence, which is all but nonexistent, but its woker-than-thou âprogressivism.â
An out-of-state tourist, certainly, and a business traveler, mostly, will only ever see Haute California: the thin ribbon along the coast up to Marin, or maybe Mendocino (north of which the coast gets kind of redneck, orâas we Californians sayââOkieâ), plus outposts in the interior such as Palm Springs and Lake Tahoe. Unless heâs in the food or farm equipment business seeing clients or suppliers along Highway 99, or petitioning the government, the businessman will likely spend his time in the gleaming glass towers of downtown San Francisco or Los Angeles, perhaps along the Miracle Mile, orâmore likelyâin the low-key but hypermodern office parks of Sand Hill Road or the toy-stocked preschool playgrounds of tech firms in SoMa and Mountain View. A petitioner in Sacramento will see a junior imperial capital, glitzy and glossy despite its unglamorous location on the Valley floor, whose wealthâlike that of all imperial capitalsâderives from taxing and spending the productivity of the surrounding provinces. The touristâunless sheâs on a budget, in which case sheâs a fool for coming to California at allâwill see the state at its very, very best: the aforementioned natural amenities plus swanky resorts, opulent hotels, and elegant eateries.
Economically, culturally, socially, and even physically, Haute California looks, sounds and feels like The Future. Can anywhere else claim the worldâs highest-margin, highest-impact, life-revolutionizing industry? Or a globe-bestriding story-telling colossus that journalist John OâSullivan, at a conference on the Paramount lot, once called âthe Athens of a new Hellenistic worldâ? The stateâs newer buildings may be awful butâso modern! Richard Meierâs ghastly Getty, high above Sepulveda Canyon, set the tone for nearly every major project since: from the Frank Gehry monstrosities that seem to dominate every streetscape to the Killer Robot from Outer Space (Helen Bernstein High School) that squares off across the Hollywood Freeway against Stasi Headquarters West (Cathedral of Our Lady of the Angels), to the gulag-chic de Young Museum in Golden Gate Park that replaced the gracious original, to the flying-donut-that-just-touched-down-in-Cupertino where Tim Cook and his court rule with velvet-gloved intensity.
A crucial element of the California Dream in the twenty-first century is to marshal the Enlightened Future to confront, conquer, and crush the Benighted Past. Structurally, so far, the wrecking ball has been restrained. That first Getty, the picture-perfect copy of a Roman villa in Pacific Palisades; the Beaux Arts San Francisco, Pasadena, and Beverly Hills City Halls; the Corinthian California Palace of the Legion of Honor? They still stand but areâemphaticallyâremainders of the Eurocentric Past, reminders of how far into The Future the state has progressed.
One wonders, though, on what terms and for how long the Missionsâthe twenty-three Spanish-Catholic adobe church-settlements from which California grewâwill be allowed to remain. They are historic, surely, and âHispanic,â sort of, but not in the way meant today: non-white and therefore Good. The Missions, and the mission of their founderâand true founder of California, Saint Junipero Serraâstand in stark contrast to the ethos of modern California. He and his fellow Franciscan friars were religious, ascetic, morally serious, and unapologetically ethno-nationalistic. No wonder, then, that at the time of this writing, statues of Father Serra (and of many others) are falling to woke mobs all over the state.
Yet in a way, the friarsâ missionary zeal lives on in modern California, which insists on sweeping asideâeven attacking as evilânorms, standards, and traditions observed for millennia. So youâve become used to distinguishing âmaleâ from âfemaleâ using English pronouns that predate Chaucer? Here comes the California Wokeratiâheadquartered in Berkeley, Santa Cruz, Westwood, and the Castro, backed by Malibu and Menlo-Atherton moneyâto cancel you for being Literally Hitler. Such provocations are in part tests to see if you really belong. Those who can adapt, quickly and enthusiasticallyâwho affirm the New Normal without a momentâs hesitationâcan stay. Those who canât or wonâtâwell, thatâs what Idaho is for. California is reserved for the Elect.
For a certain kind of personâashamed of where sheâs from, embarrassed by her background, her family, neighbors, co-workers and even friendsâvisiting or, better yet, moving to California can be a godsend. Finally, she is free of Babbittry, absolutism, colonialism, slavery, fascism, the Inquisition, plastic straws, MAGA hats, and other dreadful things people flee red states to get away from. Finally, the only opinions to breach her delicate ears will be the correct ones. Finally she can bathe in the purified, rarified air for which she was born.
But whether you share these sentiments or not, if all you know of California is Silicon Valley and Hollywood (not the physical Hollywood, which is a slum, but meta-Hollywood, the tony haunts on LAâs West Side and along Ventura Boulevard where movies and streaming series are actually written and made), Rincon Hill and Century City, Montecito and Newport Beach, Disneyland and Squaw Valley, Coronado Island and the Ahwahnee Hotel, the French Laundry and Spago, then the state does, indeed, look pretty good.
Itâs certainly expensive. Leave aside housing prices for now; hotels alone cost per night what within a middle-aged personâs lifetime used to cover a monthâs rent. Restaurants abound, many of them very good, some even spectacularâand spectacularly priced to boot. The shopping, tooâat least in Union Square, Rodeo Drive, and Carmelâis world-class.
But be careful. Stray too far in the wrong direction from Union Square into the Tenderloin, or from a newly revitalized downtown LA into Skid Row, and youâll be kicking away trash, tripping over needles, stepping in poop, and fighting off thieves, drug addicts, and the mentally ill. Be careful with that, too: if you actually land a punch, even in self-defense, chances are youâll be prosecuted while your attacker will be hailed in the Chronicle or the Times as an innocent naĂŻf victimized by the privileged patriarchy (i.e., you).
A VERY BRADY TRANSFORMATION
Perhaps the best lens through which to understand California, Then-Versus-Now, is The Brady Bunch, a sitcom that ran on broadcast television (remember that?) from 1969 to 1974. For those who need a refresher, the show depicted a middle-class family with six children (!) whose non-dufus dad (!!) provided, on one income (!!!), not just sustenance but also a spacious semi-suburban detached house, with front and back yards, in the City of Los Angeles (!!!!)âspecifically, LAâs San Fernando Valley, ground zero for middle-class bliss not just in California but in the entire postwar United States of America. And not just anywhere in that vast, rectangular plain but in Studio City, down at the Valleyâs good, southern edge, within spitting distance of the north slope of the Hollywood Hills. Oh...