Chapter 1
Catastrophic Pandemics: Disruption in Tourism Mobility
Sonam Angmo
Abstract
The aim of this chapter is to study catastrophic pandemics which have occurred in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries and their disruptive impact on tourism mobility. A detailed study of past pandemics is conducted starting from the black death or bubonic plague of 1346 to the recent COVID-19 outbreak and effect of these diseases on the tourism and economy of the infected countries. Studies show that influenza pandemics will prove to be the most dangerous in future, and the next outbreak could occur from any of the 16 known HA (haemagglutinin) subtypes. Also, it is found that tourism itself has been responsible for spread of pandemic outbreaks as countries around the world put an enormous emphasis on increased growth of tourist numbers. Among recent pandemics, it was severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) that caused the major decrease in international tourist arrivals although for a short term. Such pandemics have a negative effect on tourism destinations by damaging their image and competitiveness, and as a result, leading to disruptions in mobility of tourists, with Asian countries being the most at risk of such disruptions. Therefore, the findings of this study stress the need for pre-crisis management to handle such outbreaks, better traveller tracking system to check infected persons and the need for tourism destinations to diversify their economies to reduce dependency on tourism.
Keywords: Pandemics; tourism mobility; disruption; SARS; COVID-19; virus outbreaks
Introduction
Without any doubt, the tourism industry is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the world showing to be a resilient activity, so to speak, estimating 10 months as recovery time frame just after the disaster takes hit (Rokou, 2019). The turn of the century witnessed the multiplication of new risks and threats ranging from terrorism to the effects of natural disasters or virus outbreaks worldwide (Korstanje, 2017). Hence, the tourism industry has faced major crises and disruptive events like the 9/11 attacks of 2001 or other pandemics like the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) (2003) or the economic depression of 2008–2009 (Gossling, Scott, & Hall, 2020). Nevertheless, the sector has bounced back stronger every time without a long-term decline in tourism. In the case of disease outbreaks, immediate instructions for quarantine are proposed by countries along with a ban on international air travel. Tourism is the first industry to be hit in such a scenario, and destinations see immediate cancellation of bookings and tours. During the outbreak of SARS, tourist arrivals saw a short-term decline, but barring this pandemic all other pandemics have not had a major impact on tourism. However, this time, the world is seeing a crisis of an unprecedented level, and tourism industry has been badly hit in the worst way possible without any signs of immediate recovery. The present chapter brings some reflection on the historical background of pandemics as well as the future of tourism in a post-COVID-19 context.
Pandemics
It is vital to mention that Last, Spasoff, and Harris (2001) defines a pandemic as ‘an epidemic occurring over a very wide area, crisscrossing international borders and affecting a large number of people and nations’. To wit, ‘a pandemic refers to a widespread epidemic of contagious disease throughout the whole of a country or one or more continents at the same time’ (Honigsbaum, 2009). Having said this, pandemics happen when new viruses emerge which can infect people easily and spread from person-to-person in an efficient and sustained way. Experts do not agree on a unilateral definition of the term, but it can be understood by knowing important features shared by them such as:
- Extension over a wide geographic area;
- High attack rates and explosiveness;
- Minimal population immunity;
- Novelty;
- Infectiousness;
- Severity.
The above features can help in understanding pandemics in a better way, so that they are detected at the earliest and announced as a pandemic at the earliest (Morens, Folkers, & Fauci, 2009). As the viruses which cause these pandemics are new to humans, very few people have immunity against those and vaccines might not be widely available (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), 2020). These viruses are pathogens when they come into contact with either animals or humans (Lloyd-Smith et al., 2009). These pathogens can vary in terms of severity, mode of transmission, symptoms, mortality rate and threat (Balloux & van Dorp, 2017). Some of these come with serious threats to the global community such as SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) (Ryu, 2017) which spread easily through human-to-human contact with asymptomatic infections. Others such as swine flu, Nipah, H5N1 and H7N9 are of relatively medium threat and have not shown sustained human-to-human transmission (WHO, 2018). Other diseases such as Ebola, Marburg and Lassa can spread regionally but not on a global level (Madhav et al., 2017). Out of all these pathogens, influenza pandemics or infectious diseases pose the greatest threats to humankind in the coming years (Klein, 2015).
Catastrophic Pandemics and Their Origin
In human history, the majority of pandemics have originated from zoonotic transmission (cross-species transmission), i.e., from animals to humans (Jones, Patel, Levy, & Storeygard, 2008). These diseases can enter the human body through the domestication of animals and wildlife (Parrish et al., 2008). Interaction with wildlife for hunting and consumption of live wild game can further lead to increased risk from such pathogens (Cantlay, Ingram, & Meredith, 2017).
The Black Death (1346–1353)
Also known as bubonic plague, this outbreak was one of the most fatal pandemics in the history of mankind (Roos, 2020). It was caused by bacterium Yersinia pestis which was carried on by fleas living on rats which were commonly found in merchant ships (Morin & Westbrook, 2015). Originating in Asia, the disease spread to Europe, Africa and Asia with a death toll of 75–200 million people (Newman, 2020). Ports and ships became the breeding grounds during this outbreak as the ships carried the infected rats and people to different countries (McEvedy, 1988).
Cholera Outbreaks and Pandemic
Cholera pandemic occurred 7 times in human history and was caused by the bacterium Vibrio Cholerae. It first originated in India in 1817 (Handa, 2018), and lack of safe drinking water and lack of treatment of human faeces were the reasons which led to the spread of the disease. The sixth cholera pandemic was quite severe and also originated in India killing over 8,00,000 people and later spread to the Middle East (Mecca), North African coast, Western Europe and Russia (Claeson & Waldman, 2020). The seventh outbreak occurred in 1961 in Indonesia caused by the strain El Tor (Hu et al., 2016) which persists in the developing countries (Idoga, Toycan, & Zayyad, 2019).
Russian Flu (1889–1890)
Also called the Asiatic flu or the Russian flu, the disease was a deadly one that killed around 1 million people (Jarus, 2020). It was conjectured to be caused by Influenza A virus subtype H2N2, later in 1999 to be caused by Influenza A virus subtype H3N8 and in 2005, to be caused by OC43-a coronavirus (Knapp, 2020). The earliest cases of this flu were detected in three places – Bukhara in Central Asia (Turkestan), Athabasca in northwestern Canada and Greenland (Kempińska-Mirosławska & Woźniak-Kosek, 2013). Modern transportation helped in spreading the disease across the world. It was the last great pandemic of the nineteenth century.
Spanish Flu (1918)
This was the most severe pandemic in recent history. According to the CDC, this pandemic spread between 1918 and 1919 caused by the H1N1 virus of avian origin and infected over a third of the world's population, i.e., around 500 million people (Bradford, 2018). This disease was special because unlike most influenza outbreaks, it resulted in the deaths of a lot of young adults (in the age group of 20–40) (the mortality rate being 10–20%) as opposed to killing the old and the elderly and children (Craig, 2017). The disease spread far and wide because of the war troops who travelled, of prevalent malnutrition at that period, poor hygiene, etc., which led to further infections (Gunderman, 2020). It was one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.
Asian Flu (1956–1958)
This outbreak was caused by Influenza A subtype H2N2 which originated from avian influenza A(H2N2) virus in East Asia in 1957 (CDC, 2019). From China, it spread to different countries in Europe and Asia ultimately resulting in the death of 1.1 million people. It caused infections among school children without being fatal but proved deadly for pregnant women (Rasmussen, Jamieson, & Bresee, 2008), elderly and those with comorbidities like heart and lung diseases.
Hong Kong Flu (1968)
This flu was caused by the H3N2 strain of Influenza A virus and descended from the H2N2 virus subtype (“Hong Kong Flu-1968 Influenza Pandemic”, n.d.). The subtype arose in pigs infected with avian and human viruses and soon transferred to humans and spread to countries as far as India, Australia and the United States (Cockburn, Delon, & Ferreira, 1969), and had a low mortality rate as compared to previous outbreaks; it still resulted in the deaths of million people.
SARS (2002–2003)
SARS was the first pandemic of the twenty-first century (LeDuc & Barry, 2004). According to the WHO, it was caused by a coronavirus known as SARS-CoV and was first identified in China. The virus was believed to have originated in bats from where it crossed to pangolins and then entered humans (Han, 2020). According to the WHO (2003), it infected around 8,000 people in 26 countries. Most infections were reported in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Canada. Also, the mortality rate for SARS was much higher (around 50%) for people over 60 years of age (Roos, 2003). Like COVID-19, SARS too was spread through droplets from coughs or sneezes.
HIV/AIDS Pandemic (2005–2012)
The origin of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is traced to Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in the 1920s and received global attention in 1980 (Gallagher, Link, Ramos, & Bottger, 2014). According to the World Health Organization (WHO), it has resulted in the deaths of more than 33 million peop...