Summary
Introduction
The author, Alec Ross, was raised in Charleston, West Virginia, a town that thrived in the era of manufacturing but has struggled in the globalized, post-industrial world. Ross, the first-ever senior advisor for innovation for the secretary of state, describes the upshot of that globalization: Hundreds of millions of people in China and India are moving out of poverty and into the middle classes. Here, Ross looks ahead at the next wave of innovation and how that will affect the future âhavesâ and âhave-nots.â
Need to Know: This book will look at the future of innovation and what it will mean for coming generations, just as industrialization and globalization radically changed our world over the last century.
One: Here Come the Robots
Japanâs population is aging, and restrictive immigration policies and low birthrates have made it hard to find enough caregivers for the countryâs elderly. Companies like Toyota and Honda are developing mechanized solutions, such as robot caretakers who can assist the elderly and infirm, robotic limbs to aid those with mobility issues, and even robot pets.
The five major countries working on robotics are Japan, China, the United States, South Korea, and Germany. These nations will benefit from emerging technologies as well as the need for and creation of jobs to support these budding industries. At the same time, developing countries are able to compete in the field of low-cost robotics, even without the infrastructure of the larger states. One element that will affect the integration of robots will be social attitudes toward technology. Eastern cultures are more likely to accept the aid of robotic helpers, while Western countries are more uncomfortable with the concept of machines having such responsibility.
Robots have improved significantly in recent years due to the cloud, which allows the computers to hook up to others around the world, and âlearnâ from their experiences, improving at a rapid speed. At the same time, the materials used to make them are increasingly flexible and life-like, sometimes even biodegradable. Investment in robotics from governments, tech companies, and capital funders is growing.
Google has been developing driverless cars, which could make driving safer by eliminating common human errors behind the wheel, such as distraction. But there will be losers to this innovation; taxi and truck drivers could soon become obsolete. Ross argues that handing over control of automobiles will be difficult, and that driverless car technology will have to be nearly flawless before it is legally or culturally accepted.
Another big area of robotic development has been in medicine, where robots are performing surgical tasks and may soon be able to enter a body to perform targeted actions. Education will also see a rise in the use of robots, where they can help sick children âattendâ school or provide classroom assistance to children on the autism spectrum.
Improving robotics to do more routine tasks would seem to create an âunderclassâ of robot workers to serve humans. As automation has already begun replacing low-skilled work, robots are increasingly doing jobs that people are currently paid to do. For employers, the choice is between spending more money upfront to buy a robot worker who will not need a salary or benefits, or hiring a person with no upfront cost but have reoccurring costs over time. As robots become cheaper to purchase, more employers are likely to choose the former. As these machines become more sophisticated and learn to handle tasks like waiting tables or paralegal work, more people will be out of jobs, causing another major shift in society.
In China, where the economy has grown due cheap labor in manufacturing, the threat of robot workers could destabilize the countryâs workforce. China is responding by forcing workers to move to big cities, thereby providing a steady stream of low cost workers to de-incentivize the investment in mechanical labor. But itâs a last ditch effort; as Ross saw in his home state of West Virginia, advancement in technology is likely to leave low-skilled workers behind. His solution for countries is to invest in robotics, then, use the mo...