PART ONE
Navigating the Now: Four Trends of Exponential Change
CHAPTER ONE
Too Many Rats in this Race: The Rising Population
Our earth is becoming too small for us, global population is increasing at an alarming rate, and we are in danger of self-destructing.
āStephen Hawking
The trouble with the rat race is that even if you win, youāre still a rat.
āLily Tomlin
THE CABIN LIGHTS FINALLY DIMMED on a red-eye flight as I was returning home. Having been speaking all week, I was worn out and just wanted to slide on headphones and an eye mask, lower my seat, and forget the world for a few hours. The passenger next to me had other plans. He was talkative. Reminding myself why Iām here on this planet (and plane), I brushed aside my initial annoyance and engaged with him enthusiastically, all the while praying for a meaningful conversation. It was indeed memorable.
He was a Jewish doctor who sold medical equipment in Asia. He asked me what I did, so I told him I was an author. Then he asked what kind of books I wrote. I had the opportunity to tell him about myself and what my life was about. I expected that to end the conversationāmost of the time it does. In this case, however, he was intrigued and wanted to talk.
Somehow we began discussing the state of the world and whether evil exists. The doctor believed that we were evolving to become better humans and that evil was not inherent in us. He had recently read a book proving that we, as a species, are actually improving and evolving to become better.
āReally?ā I asked. I brought up the Nazi Holocaust, Mao Zedongās slaughter of millions, Stalinās mass murders, the Khmer Rougeās killing fields, weekly terrorist attacks, and constant wars, and asked, āHow does that sound like we are doing better than previous eras?ā I commented, āThe only thing we seem to be better at is killing more people with less effort or remorse than any previous generation.ā
His answer was that the population is much larger than previous generations, so the percentage of people being killed is actually much less than it used to be.
āHow many people killed unnaturally would it take to prove that we are not getting better but worse?ā I asked. He just looked at me. I could see that my odd question surprised him, and he was trying to figure out how to answer it. I added, āWe already mentioned hundreds of millions, probably as many as a billion. How many killed, given our large population, would it take for us to be considered worse than any previous generation?ā
I helped him out by saying, āIf an additional billion lives were extinguished at the hands of other people during the last fifty yearsāabove and beyond the other genocides already mentionedāwould that be enough to destroy the hypothesis that we are better than the people of previous eras? That would put the unnatural death toll higher than 20 percentāwould that be high enough?ā
Nodding, the doctor answered, āYes, an additional billion killings would probably change that argument.ā Then he added, āBut it hasnāt happened, so itās an irrelevant hypothetical question.ā
āOh, but it has,ā I said. āSince 1970, there have been a billion abortions in the world. Our population would be a billion more if not for abortion. One billion lives have been extinguished by the hands of other people in less than fifty years.ā I then added, āThat would bring the number of unnatural deaths due to genocide, war, and intentional eugenics up to about two billion in one hundred years, among a population that has grown from three to seven billion. Two billion killed, out of a potential nine billion livesāI would say that is a significant percentage of the total population. Are you still thinking that we are better than previous eras?ā
Shaking his head he said, āAbortion doesnāt count.ā
āI would say it counts,ā I retorted. āIām glad I wasnāt aborted. How about you? Are you glad you were allowed to live? Are you glad you were not aborted?ā
He nodded. He had to. Quickly he went on to protest, āYes, butā¦ā
In the end, he refused to count those numbers. He preferred to believe that we are better people than previous humans. We had a lively debate and the time passed quickly, but I didnāt change his mind and he didnāt change mine. No one wants to believe they are worse than the people who were before them. We all want to think that we are the best. I get it. It is an unfortunate reality that many people would rather remain deluded than face the truth all around.
Lest you think that it is only the heathen and humanists of this world that are kidding themselves, we Christians are perhaps the most deluded. Our days are rapidly passing and time is no longer abundant. This is a wake-up call. We must abandon our old ways in order to become what we were always meant to beāa rapidly expanding, persecution-proof movement of Jesusā disciples.
A steep learning curve
We have heard the statistics about the population of our world. There are seven and a half billion souls living on this planetāand that number rises every second.
Having always lived during this population bloom, we may not realize how dramatic it is within the timeline of history. Perhaps a picture can help put context to our birthdays beyond candles and cake and demonstrate the consequence of being alive in these days.
Below is a chart to visualize the dramatic upswing we are in the midst of, shown from 10,000 BC until now.
From the day Noah stepped off his boat, it took until 1804 AD to pass our first billion people living at once on this small blue planet. In just one century (1804ā1900 AD), we tripled that number. In my lifetime we have grown by four billionāand Iām still breathing and tapping on these keys. How much higher could the spike rise during the rest of my lifeāor my childrenās lives?
Exponential growth is a powerful phenomenon. The momentum of this population growth has been a tidal wave hitting this planet. What could possibly slow it down? Plague? Wars? Economic collapse? Famine? Massive genocide? Weapons of mass destruction? Orchestrated eugenics? So far, these horrors have not slowed the pace.
If you were twenty years old in 1914, by the time you turned fifty you would have lived to see two world wars, the Nazi Holocaust, Stalinās great purge, two atomic bombs dropped on populated cities, the Great Depression, the Dustbowl and the Spanish Flu pandemicāand the momentum on the chart above never even paused for a moment. In fact, the rate of growth increased. Since 1970, there have been over a billion abortions globally. All of this devastation and unnatural loss of life has not even slowed the upswing of the growth curve. The momentum of exponential growth is something that is hard to fathom.
Whatever your view of the end times, you certainly have to agree that we are in significant days that are barreling toward a breaking point. Now consider that this is the era God chose to bring you into the worldāyou and seven and a half billion other souls (and counting).
The challenge of the task ahead of us
In the first century, Jesus gave His eleven surviving disciples a challenge. He said, āGo therefore and make disciples of all the nationsā (Matthew 28:19). Can you imagine how impossible that sounded to a small group of fishermen, reformed tax collectors, and zealots? Well, it is nothing compared to the challenge He gives to you and me at this time. What was a few million is now a few billion, but the task has not changed. We must make immediate and drastic changes if we have any hope of fulfilling our call to make disciples of all the people groups.
Prior to the rise of Emperor Constantine, the more organic and movemental expression of the early Church succeeded in accomplishing what nothing else was able to doādefeat the Roman Empire in a head-to-head conflict. Rome considered this fledgling faith a challenge and did everything it could to stomp it out. In the end, the Empire surrendered to Christianity. For a brief moment, it seemed like the commission given to the Church by Jesus was fulfilled. But the old saying, āIf you canāt beat āem, join āem,ā was a strategy well played by the world. In no time, Christianity was overcomeānot by brute force, but by the seduction of power and privilege. Under Emperor Constantine, Christianity not only became legal, but worse, profitable. The Church became a political enterprise, with all that entails. The Constantinian expression of church was born.
What is the Constantinian model of church? It is what comes to your mind when you ask yourself, āWhat is a local church?ā It is a location, often a building, where clergy conduct sacred activities on special days for the faithful in attendance. As common as that understanding is to us, it is actually foreign to the New Testament.
This model that came into prominence post-Constantine was not sufficiently able to make disciples of the world even when the population was a fraction of what it is today. The Constantinian model of church has remained in place since the 300s AD. The global population back then was about the size of the current US population, but the Church failed to fulfill the Great Commission. In order to reach this world, we have no other option then to consider āorganizingā under a different paradigm, that releases multiplication so that we can fulfill the commission given to us by Jesus.
Unfortunately, church leaders invest everything they have in making that ineffective model work. Why? Because their security, identity, and purpose are intertwined with that modelās function. Those who have the best opportunity to make it change are the very people most motivated to keep it the same. As Upton Sinclair once quipped, āIt is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!ā1 Our leadership is invested in upholding a model that is incapable of accomplishing what God asks of it. This model has been in place for one and a half millennia, so it now has become our very definition of church. It is a challenge to imagine anything else, but we must if we are to make a difference in this generation.
A final word on the ārat raceā
I would be remiss if I did not mention that in recent days the pace of exponential growth of the population appears to be slowing. While violent force could not slow the growth, other factors seem to be more effective at doing so in our modern world. Education, economics, modern medicine, and selfishness are decreasing the birthrate.2
There is much speculation about whether the population will grow, slow, plateau, or even subside in the future. What is not under debate is the incredible exponential growth rate we have already experienced, illustrated in the diagram above. It is clear that our current means of doing church and reaching the world are inadequate. Remember, this book is about the now, not the future. We can debate the future, but no one disputes the exponential growth rate of the population and where we are now in terms of billions.
If the population growth were the only rapid current we need to deal with, it would be enough to challenge our church structuresābut it is not. In the following chapters I will lay out for you three other exponential swings upward that set the stage for the Church to either fade into irrelevance or rise to the challenge of our times.
CHAPTER TWO
The Skynet is Falling: The Rising Technology Tsunami
In the last few years, weāve moved from an information-scarce economy to one driven by an information glut. According to Eric Schmidt of Google, every two days we create as much information as we did from the dawn of civilization until 2003. Thatās about five exobytes of data a day, for those of you keeping score. The challenge becomes, not finding that scarce plant growing in the desert, but finding a specific plant growing in a jungle. We are going to need help navigating that information to find the thing we actually need.
āNeil Gaiman
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
āArthur C. Clarke
IN 2016, I WAS INVITED to share at an elite conference on technology. Elon Musk, Bill Gates, and many powerful innovators, entrepreneurs, and world changers were addr...