Reinventing the Sheikhdom

Clan, Power and Patronage in Mohammed bin Zayed's UAE

Matthew Hedges

• Publisher: Hurst Publishers
• Year: 2022
• ISBN:
  9781787387720
• Topic: Politik & Internationale Beziehungen
• Subtopic: Politik

Though the Arab Spring has reverberated through the Middle East, largely leaving a path of destruction, the relative calm in the United Arab Emirates has offered a regional roadmap for stability. Domestic changes since 2000 have significantly altered the country's dynamics, firmly cementing power within Abu Dhabi. While Khalifa bin Zayed succeeded his father as emir of Abu Dhabi and UAE president in 2004, the Emirates' evolution has largely been accredited to Abu Dhabi's crown prince, Mohammed bin Zayed. His reign has been characterised by the rise of the security apparatus and a micromanaged approach to governance.

Mohammed bin Zayed's strategy of fortification has focused on pre-empting threats from the UAE's native population, rather than from expatriates or foreign actors. As a result, he has consolidated power, distributing its administration among his tribal and kinship allies. In essence, Mohammed bin Zayed has driven modernisation in order to strengthen his grasp on power.

This book explores Mohammed bin Zayed's regime security strategy, illustrating the network of alliances that seek to support his reign and that of his family. In an ever-turbulent region, the UAE remains critical to understanding the evolution of Middle Eastern authoritarian control.

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INTRODUCTION

Methods of political governance have been significantly affected by technological developments and social-economic modernisation. While these trends have altered global systems of political interaction, there are still traditional tenets by which many states practise their authority. This is of particular significance for authoritarian states, due to their application of multifaceted methods of control and the lack of formal accountability. For the states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—the evolving task of maintaining control and authority is a complicated challenge as the ruling monarchs balance traditional power mechanisms which legitimise their authority against dynamic sociopolitical conditions. The UAE is regarded as the foremost modern authoritarian state within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) due to its effective application of overt and covert mechanisms that strengthen the regime’s control of society.

Traditional governance systems are defined by their claims to and belief in the ‘sanctity of the order and the attendant powers of control as they have been handed down from the past’.¹ Tradition extends the capabilities of a state and, when bonded with identity, provides a powerful platform from which to significantly expand state power. This concept is firmly grounded within the GCC states, who all share the institution of monarchy and continue to operate above society, thus providing multiple avenues from which to extrapolate supplementary power and authority. Their main challenge is how to maintain authority amid an array of evolving threats.

The GCC states have grown as extensions of the households that ruled the region before the formal establishment of their states, and therefore, the sociopolitical dynamics within each state provides exclusive lenses for analysis. The relationship between monarch and society is central to understanding how, and where, pressure is applied to influence domestic power dynamics. The network of factors which support these interactions is deeply ingrained in the tradition of each society. In turn, these unique characteristics have become part of a central strategy for the monarchs to reinforce the fundamental basis upon which their authority is built.

The advent of the Arab Spring altered the ability of regimes across the MENA region to adhere to long-established forms of power, aligning the tradition-focused region with prominent theories of modernisation such as Samuel Huntington’s The Third Wave.² The plethora of scholarship which emerged in the immediate aftermath of the Cold War, such as Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History,³ hypothesised, that only liberal democracies could survive in the future, arguing that ‘as mankind approaches the end of the millennium, the twin crises of authoritarianism and socialist central planning have left only one competitor standing in the ring as an ideology of potential universal validity: liberal democracy’.⁴ Why, then, have authoritarian regimes not only survived, but thrived in MENA since the Arab Spring?

While at the peak of the Arab Spring many MENA regimes looked vulnerable and susceptible to institutional change, there has since been a reversal in the progression of authoritarian states, with many reverting to intrinsic, traditional characteristics.⁵ Reflecting on the change within MENA, it becomes evident that, apart from Tunisia’s successful transition to a functioning democracy, where structural change was demanded through large-scale civil protests, a significant and lengthy period of instability has followed. In contrast, the GCC states were able to successfully contain the ripples of discontent emanating from North Africa. Where disturbances did occur within the GCC—Bahrain, the Eastern region of Saudi Arabia, and northern Sunni dominated areas of Oman—regimes reacted with a mixture of repressive tactics, and, in some cases, increased co-optation. Johannes Gerschewski concurs with this premise and posits three pillars of stability: legitimation, repression, and co-optation.⁶ The contrasting responses of the GCC monarchies to the Arab Spring, and the result of such measures, versus that of the republican states of North Africa and the Levant indicate an institutional advantage and capability in monarchy’s favour.⁷

Attempts to survey the effects of the Arab Spring on the GCC states⁸ often refer to Samuel Huntington’s ‘King’s Dilemma’⁹ in their analysis. Huntington postulates that a ruling monarch can practise one of three strategies in the pursuit of modernisation.¹⁰ First, reducing power (potentially abdicating) and continuing to modernise, paving the way for a constitutional monarchy; second, combining monarchical power with popular authority; and third, maintaining the status quo as the sole source of authority and quelling efforts that undermine the regime.¹¹

While scholarship focusing on the GCC’s symptoms of the King’s Dilemma often investigates methods of coercion, and the partial economic and political liberalisation that has taken place since 2011, most analysis has focused on strategic level decisions. This book, however, acknowledges that ‘there is no transition whose beginning is not the consequence—direct or indirect—of important divisions within the authoritarian regime itself’.¹² As a result, it is crucial that any investigation into an authoritarian state’s management of modernisation incorporates elite dynamics.

This book will present the case study of the UAE to examine how changes following the Arab Spring have been adopted to advance its regime security strategy. Central to this will be the ascension to power of Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan and the ways in which he has not only centralised power, but designed a structure that increases his oversight by shortening the agency chain through his direct network of clan and kin. The UAE presents a clear example of a nested dictatorship, like a Russian doll where each subordinate is closely aligned to his own predecessor but all mimic the ultimate leader.¹³ In this case, and since the Arab Spring, the UAE’s supreme leader is Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan.

Federation: Power or Curse?

The UAE is a member of the GCC. As a state it was founded in 1971, as a federation of seven Emirates—Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, Fujairah, Ras al-Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm al-Quwain—each one having its own relationship with its particular micro-climate of sociopolitical dynamics. As a result of the overlapping fabric of social relations and authority, the federal identity of the UAE has the potential ability to weaken it as a union. This was the cause of significant tension within the UAE’s earlier years, but as power solidified, so did the state’s stability.

While the seven Emirates are technically equal in constitutional power, Abu Dhabi is the capital Emirate and possesses the vast majority of the oil reserves that have been used to develop the state in its image. There is a stark contrast in socioeconomic conditions between the Emirates, with the capital hosting all major federal bodies and acting as the central diplomatic hub for foreign relations. Therefore, the management of the state by the Abu Dhabi ruling family is the single most important factor in the development of the UAE.

The founder of the UAE, Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan, carefully managed the relationships between the Emirates and the collective development of the state. Since his death in 2004, there has been a seismic shift in political relations. The leadership of his successor, Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan, has faced different threats, leading to the postulation that governance within the UAE has also evolved. This book therefore seeks to illustrate the predominant threats to Abu Dhabi’s ruling family and analyse how its members have managed to protect themselves from these issues.

Christopher Davidson,¹⁴ the leading scholar on the contemporary UAE, has written several books analysing in detail the development of Abu Dhabi¹⁵ and Dubai.¹⁶ He builds upon previous works of Frauke Heard-Bey,¹⁷ Hendrik Van Der Meulen,¹⁸ and Wilfred Thesiger,¹⁹ all of whom analysed the UAE from societal and historical accounts. Yet, it is in a recent monograph²⁰ that Davidson attempts to challenge the orthodox notions of how the modern day GCC states are reacting to the challenges of modernisation. He postulated that the GCC monarchies ‘will be gone in the next two to five years’.²¹ While this estimation of longevity has proved to be wrong, the theoretical argument presented throughout the study is strong and built upon a wide breadth of scholarship. Davidson understands that many of the conditions that were apparent in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia during the Arab Spring are also found, if not magnified, within the GCC states, because of the skewed social contract between the region’s monarchs and citizens.

Whilst Davidson examines the macro-trends of the post-Arab Spring GCC, Kristian Ulrichsen examines the case study of Qatar, whose dynamics are somewhat different. His innovative study, Qatar and the Arab Spring,²² observes Qatar’s development-focused and political Islam oriented foreign policy ideology, and highlights how this was translated into policy through the turbulent period. Ulrichsen centres his analysis around Qatar’s foreign policy, largely overlooking internal issues. What is evident in his thesis, and many other studies about other GCC states,²³ is the absence of analysis of how the mechanisms of power and control are changing to suit a new political reality, leveraging a unique angle that the research seeks to pursue. There is a wide gap in the field of research on the micro-decisions employed by states to protect themselves.

Ulrichsen followed with a book on the UAE, tracing the coaxial development of Emirati foreign and domestic policies.²⁴ While literature pertaining to the UAE has been limited in scope, Ulrichsen has been able to illustrate the key drivers of the state’s united policy, while also explaining the impact of those decisions on the federation’s identity. Ulrichsen values the role of formal rational institutions within the UAE, however in doing so it can be said that this approach overlooks many of the informal domestic dynamics that also drive policy decisions within the UAE. While a state-level approach, such as that utilised by Ulrichsen, could be useful when analysing security strategy, the internal dynamics that support a reign within an authoritarian state provide greater influence on issues of governance than their foreign relations. This book, however, acknowledges the fact that ‘there is no transition whose beginning is not the consequence—direct or indirect—of important divisions within the authoritarian regime itself’.²⁵ As a result, it is crucial for an investigation into an authoritarian state’s management of modernisation to incorporate elite dynamics.

David Roberts examines the development of the UAE Armed Forces and its effectiveness; however, his study does not provide sufficient evidence for his observations. He states that ‘there is little evidence of preferential promotion of royals in contemporary UAE operations. More generally, there is no forging of exclusionary identity-based military’.²⁶ On the one hand, due mainly to deficiencies in human capital and an acknowledgement of organs which can provide security, it is unlikely that a large portion of ruling family members would seek distinguished roles within the UAE Armed Forces. On the other hand, however, preliminary research shows several examples of ruling family members who have advanced military careers, including Staff Pilot Major General Sheikh Ahmed bin Tahnoon al-Nahyan, the Chairman of the National Service and Reserve Authority;²⁷ Rear Admiral Pilot Staff Major General Sheikh Saeed bin Hamdan bin Muhammad al-Nahyan, the Commander of the UAE Navy;²⁸ and Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan al-Nahyan, who was injured while on overseas operations in Yemen.²⁹ It is hypothesised that the UAE Armed Forces have come under increased control from the Abu Dhabi ruling family since the Arab Spring, and that this is illustrated by clear changes.

Kenneth Pollack also contributes to the literature concerning the UAE Armed Forces’ military effectiveness, and delivers a comparatively thorough and contextually rich analysis. However, like many of his peers, Pollack has avoided topics of sensitivity for the UAE ruling family, namely elite dynamics. Abu Dhabi has heavily invested in the public policy and think tank sector within the United States, and the institution that published Pollack’s paper was heavily engaged in lobbying efforts (the fourth most engaged think tank) from UAE Foreign Agents.³⁰ This would therefore follow a pattern whereby the UAE has been able to co-opt public information and shift analysis away from sensitive areas. As a result, Pollack’s study is interesting for as much as what it doesn’t include as for what it does.

Therefore, due to the lack of detailed and accurate contemporary case studies, this book will present the case study of the UAE. It aims to complement the current field of scholarship by seeking to address the following research question: to what extent has the UAE’s regime security strategy been affected by the Arab Spring? The assumption is that the principal threat to the UAE originates from domestic rather than foreign sources. It illustrates why changes have been made to the UAE’s internal governance structure, and in what and whose image. The initial hypothesis is that, since the Arab Spring, there has been an increasing centralisation of the state’s power, rising bureaucracy, a move towards a unitary state, and the future of the UAE has been bound to the survival of the Abu Dhabi ruling family; in particular to Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan and his own family clan.

Conceptual Framework

Political administration within t...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• Note on Spelling and Terminology
• List of Illustrations
• List of Abbreviations
• Acknowledgements
• Foreword
• 1. Introduction
• 2. Regime Security Strategy Precedent in Abu Dhabi
• 3. Military Consolidation
• 4. Digital Authoritarianism: New Tools for State Control
• 5. Strategic Economic Management
• 6. Industrial Control
• 7. Conclusion
• Appendices
• Notes
• Bibliography
• Index
• Back Cover