Breaking Out of the Green House

Indian Leadership in Times of Environmental Change

Dhanasree Jayaram

• Publisher: KW Publishers
• Year: 2012
• ISBN:
  9789386147370
• Topic: Biological Sciences
• Subtopic: Environmental Conservation & Protection
• Index: Biological Sciences

The book traverses several pathways including the basics of science and geography, geopolitics and international relations, strategic and security studies, policy-related and diplomatic dialogues, as well as socio-cultural and economic perspectives in order to bring out a holistic picture of how environmental change has shaped the international system and India's position in it. The central argument of the book that environmental change can change/is changing geography and in turn can change/is changing international relations has been substantiated by detailed analysis of the drivers of India's environmental policies, international climate change negotiations, role of state and non-state actors in the international environmental discourse both in theory and practice, and finally the interconnectedness between environmental change and national security. The volume tries to find the right balance between the international scene embodied by the negotiations driven by hardcore economics on the one hand, and the domestic realities of India that steer its climate change policy based on energy security and developmental concerns. The need to address the larger issue of environmental change rather than concentrating on one aspect of it – climate change – to reduce the amount of polarisation that surrounds the global environmental debate especially in the wake of the introduction of the issue at the United Nations Security Council, has been reiterated throughout the work. It contains policy recommendations in terms of methods of adaptation, mitigation, energy management/diversification, enhancement of the role of think tanks as well as diplomatic manoeuvring (principles-based) at the climate change negotiations and other international debates. This area of study is comparatively new in India while the West has been dedicating a significant amount of resources towards research in energy and environmental security for the past two decades. Therefore, one of the objectives of the book is to evolve an Indian perspective on these strategic issues in a Western literature-dominated arena. Though the book brings to light several gaping holes in India's policy and strategy, it contends that India has a plethora of options and opportunities to not only maintain its own national security but also help the world 'adapt' and 'mitigate' in times of environmental change.

1

The Changing Patterns of Global Climate Change Architecture

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“It is the responsibility of each human being today to choose between the force of darkness and the force of light. We must, therefore, transform our attitude, and adopt a renewed respect for the superior laws of the DIVINE NATURE.”

These words of Maurice Strong, the former Secretary General of the UN Environment Programme at the 1992 Earth Summit sparked off a fresh debate that forced the international polity out of slumber. If the 20th century was marred by the World Wars and other conflicts that slaughtered millions of lives, the 21st century is turning out to be the century of environmental wrath that could take even more lives than any form of conflict. The human-induced process of environmental change that was set off way back during the era of civilisation-building took a perilous turn in the 20th century due to the industrialisation drive of the Western countries; it is now gradually worsening as the international community awaits a consensual deal. Climate change is one such threat, and among all environmental threats, this is one phenomenon which has gathered the most attention. One could say that it is not the definition of climate change that needs to be looked into; it is the definition of the ‘response to climate change’ that needs to be transformed so that the ‘measures’ bear fruit. Geopolitically, climate change is an issue that encompasses all facets of international politics that steer a nation’s march towards achieving national comprehensive power. Ironically, the international negotiations themselves have become synonymous with ‘conflict’ rather than ‘cooperation’. Resolution of the geopolitical chaos is the key to the effective tackling of the effects of climate change. To be more futuristic, and perhaps idealistic, the negation of the geopolitical chaos and the introduction of an alternative such as technology cutting across political fault-lines should be given due attention. The first step towards that would be re-standardisation of international relations that would create political willingness.

India is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world not only due to its geographical conditions but also due to its weak infrastructure. At the international level, as an important participant on the negotiating table, India has come a long way from being a silent spectator to being a leading voice from the developing world. However, the road ahead seems challenging as in an increasingly competitive world, with wealth comes power, with power comes responsibility, and with responsibility comes liability. At the national and local levels, it is imperative to examine the methodology of adopting a robust climate change policy that simultaneously deals with three issues—energy management, development and reduction in emissions of pollutants, and green house gases—since the country is grappling with poverty and energy deficit. The effort in the succeeding chapters would be to dissect the poles that exist in this country apart from giving a perspective on the futuristic scenario in terms of sustainable development, adaptation, mitigation as well as energy security. These poles are being dictated by the differing stances of the political class, the judiciary and activists. As part of an India-centric evaluation of the impact of climate change, the chapter would also delve into the intricacies of national security that could be threatened in various ways. As the world gears up to deal with the vagaries of climate change —the crux of environment change – both the theory and practice of the politics of climate change would be revisited in the subsequent pages. This could map out the steps that could tighten up global efforts in the areas of adaptation and mitigation. These physical and metaphysical issues are hard to disentangle like the Hegelian dialectic but an effort would be made to reach the ‘syntheses’ through analysis and case studies. This chapter would mostly restrict itself to the existing narratives on climate change, which is Western-oriented in order to build the foundation for the Indian perspective on the subject. The first and foremost task is to understand climate change as it is, and how it is perceived through the prism of international relations.

Redefining Climate Change

A Multi-faceted Phenomenon

Climate change is a dynamic phenomenon that has multiple layers. To classify it as merely scientific or meteorological will be too simplistic. In today’s world, every issue develops tentacles that reach out to various spheres, usually guided by conflicting ideologies. This is the reason why definitions have become transient and relative. Though climate change is incontrovertibly a global phenomenon that has universal causes and consequences proven by the scientific community time and again, it affects different entities or spheres making the task of framing the exact definition highly contentious. In geopolitics, this becomes even more complicated since the world is clearly divided by nation states with lucidly delineated boundaries and cogently defined national interests.

On the one hand, the international community represented by various organisations have come up with definitions that have got worldwide acceptance. But one has to take into account the politics of climate change which guides the fundamental theories related to it; the former has assumed significance to such an extent that the real dangers of climate change are being overlooked. The starting point of the differences between the perspectives of the scientific and the political communities is the definition itself exemplified by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) respectively. The latter defines ‘climate change’ as “A change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”¹ The former states, “Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use.”² While the UNFCCC specifically focuses on climate change attributable to human activities for obvious reasons, the IPCC looks at it more holistically by making a distinction between ‘climate change’ that is triggered by human activities and ‘climate variability’ that is ascribed to natural causes. It is the human activity that has divided the world into several blocs, and the definitions yet again vary from bloc to bloc since the degree of impact and the urgency of response to climate change are variable.

Geopolitics and International Relations Approach

Geopoliticians draw conclusions based on these diverse perspectives of climate change, and thus, expand the definition to include the facet of international security. According to them, it is the architect of the process of redrawing the world map besides being the platform for the ‘clash of interests’ between nation states. In international relations and world politics, environment has always been one of the top priorities, and with the advent of the concept of climate change, it has assumed even more significance. The blame-game over the origin of climate change and the debate over the possible measures to tackle it have turned it into a playground of power politics. Just as it has divided nation states, it has also divided the international theorists. The debate between the ‘modernists’ and the ‘ecoradicals’ is the most noteworthy one. The former group is of the belief that environmental protection cannot be achieved at the expense of development. Thus, they champion the cause of environmental protection and promotion of the development agenda concurrently. This model essentially lays emphasis on the upgradation of the existing scientific and technological resources that could mitigate environmental degradation. However, these environment-friendly techniques have been rejected by the ‘ecoradicals’ according to whom the only way to decelerate the dramatic rise in pollution and exhaustion of natural resources is to halt the process of growth itself. This was also the central finding of a group of scholars of Club of Rome who published ‘Limits to Growth’ in 1972. They strongly believe that any progress in science and technology cannot solve the problems that the humanity will face since the ecosystem does not have the capacity to stand ‘human atrocities’ beyond a certain point. They call for a complete overhaul of human nature, lifestyle and population control measures.³ These two theories are the two sides of the same coin. The first one accepts the reality of the current economic growth model that is central to any country’s comprehensive power theory but fails to make an assessment of the notion of development. Though it promises to provide long-term solutions, it fails to gauge the status of the environment in the long run. The second one takes a more idealistic stand that regards the whole world as one organism, and the destruction of one part would result in the destruction of the entire planet. It completely excludes the needs of a growing and demanding population. Though it has a long-term perspective, it fails to give an alternative to the current economic model apart from demanding decentralisation, devolution and diffusion of the powers of the nation state in order to generate ‘ecocentric’ communities. New environmentalism is deemed an offshoot of the emerging threats of global warming and climate change. The theory of new environmentalism recognises the fact that global warming is a symptom and not a problem; the problem lies in the wasteful and exploitative nature of human society.

Science Matters

A clear understanding of the theories associated with climate change should be backed by scientific and experiential facts. It is a well-known fact by now that the root cause of climate change is the ‘greenhouse effect’. This is the primary factor that contributes to the sustenance of life on earth as it keeps the temperature of the earth sufficiently high. But the same effect could prove disastrous if it is intensified by carbon emissions due to burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Methane emissions caused by agricultural activities are also said to be significant contributors although this has become a major bone of contention between the developed and developing countries. The primary greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), nitrous oxide and halocarbons, out of which CO₂ is the biggest contributor. Human activities, as a source of climate change, have been highlighted by the IPCC in their Assessment Reports, and in their Fourth Assessment Report (2007) they reiterated that ‘global GHG emissions due to human activities have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70 per cent between 1970 and 2004’. They went one step ahead to increase the probability to more than 90 per cent that reinforces the chief cause of the increased greenhouse effect to be human activities.⁴ The natural process by which the carbon is released into the atmosphere is accelerated by the activities of human beings. This causes global warming, which in turn sets off radical variations in the weather including precipitation, winds, temperature, and so on. For example, an increased concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere is known to affect cloud cover. Over the years, the sceptics have discarded the findings of these scientists sporadically and come up with their own conclusions that consider climate change a natural phenomenon or attribute it to other sources such as cosmic rays that affect the formation of clouds. A case in point is the reduction in solar activity, which is regarded by a majority of the climate scientists as the cause for the Little Ice Age between 1650 and 1850. One of the NASA studies has refuted this claim by stressing on the fact that the average amount of energy emitted by the sun has neither decreased nor increased drastically since 1750, and that only the lower parts of the atmosphere have become warmer while the upper atmosphere has remained cool as the GHGs trap heat in the former.⁵ Since the politics of climate change revolves around the assumption that human activities are the dominant contributor, climate scepticism loses relevance in this context to a certain extent.

Impact of Climate Change: An Indian Perspective

Facts and Figures as Seen Through the Indian Eye

Climate change could have unprecedented environmental, social and economic consequences, which in turn hold the potential to create a shift in the relations between different nation states and eventually culminate in an environmental or political semi-apocalypse. Bill Clinton very famously said, “First, I worry about climate change. It’s the only thing that I believe has the power to fundamentally end the march of civilisation as we know it, and make a lot of the other efforts that we’re making irrelevant and impossible.”⁶ The real signs of a changing climate are manifested by sea level rise, global temperature rise, shrinking ice sheets, glacial retreat, extreme weather events, and so on. Some of the figures released by NASA are grim reminders of what is in store for humankind if immediate measures are not taken to mitigate climate change. For instance, the CO₂ concentrations are at their highest in 6,50,000 years. The global average sea level has risen by 4-8 inches over the past century, and it is increasing at the rate of 3.27 mm per year. There has been an average increase of 1.5°F in the global temperature since 1880. Besides the doubling of the loss of Greenland Ice between 1996 and 2005, January 2000 to December 2009 was recorded as the warmest decade.⁷ Indian scientists have also added more credence to these findings as evidenced by the reports of the ISRO that concluded the retreat of the Himalayan glaciers by nearly 16 per cent in the last five decades. Their study on the impact of climate change on agricultural yield and hydrology also revealed disturbing results. In the case of the former, it is in the form of reduction in the output of wheat, rice, maize and pearl millet while in the case of the latter, it is in the form of increase of runoff in almost all the major river basins of India in the month of June. The 2009-10 report of the ISRO also said that Indian livestock are a major source of CH₄ emissions.⁸ A rise in temperature in the Tibetan plateau could reshape the sub-continental river systems especially that of the Brahmaputra and the Indus, and convert them into monsoon-fed rivers that could annihilate a significant proportion of the population in South Asia including India.

Indications: India and the World

Scientific evidence shows that climate change leads to higher frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy precipitation events, floods, droughts, fires, and severe cyclonic storms, which in turn result in a surge in deaths, injuries, toxic contamination, infectious diseases, social disruption, environmentally forced migration and the list goes on. A simple illustration would be the implications of higher temperatures; they...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Half Title
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• Dedication
• Acknowledgments
• Preface
• Environmental Change and it’s Global Implications: An Introductory Essay
• 1. The Changing Patterns of Global Climate Change Architecture
• 2. Drivers of India’s Climate Change Policy
• 3. The Journey of International Negotiations: Conflict and Cooperation
• 4. Geopolitics of Environmental Change: Options and Opportunities
• 5. Environment and Energy: Roadblocks and Prospects for India
• 6. The Politics of Environmentalism: Relations between State and Non-State Actors
• 7. Environmental Change and the Fabric of National Security
• Epilogue
• Appendices