Since the introduction of the concept of hybrid regime in the early 2000s, defined as a system of governance which is ostensibly democratic but essentially authoritarian, much has been written on them. The growing body of literature has âfocused either on the study of their origins, on the theorizing about their functioning, or on the analysis of their ability to surviveâ (Cassani 2012). Scholars of all three strands agree that elections play a pivotal role in hybrid regimes, from emergence to survival. Elections pose serious dilemma for the leaders of hybrid regimes, while contested elections bolster their claims of democracy and augment their legitimacy, they âcreate political uncertainty that can threaten authoritiesâ ability to stay in powerâ (Petrov et al. 2014). Under such circumstances, âhybrid regime rulers react to the dilemma of elections neither by accepting free and fair elections nor by eliminating elections. Instead, they manipulate elections and find other ways to minimize the chances that the population will oust themâ (Petrov et al. 2014). Exactly how do these manipulations take place? How do hybrid regimes conduct elections which overcome the uncertainty and deliver victory? What roles do state institutions play? There are not too many studies which have addressed these questions in detail and laid out the modus operandi of managed elections. This book attempts to fill in this gap through an exploration of the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh held on December 30, 2018.
The 2018 Bangladeshi election has delivered an unprecedented victory to the incumbent Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) and its allies who secured 288 of 300 seats (The Guardian 2018). The election has been described by the New York Times Editorial Board as âfarcicalâ (The New York Times 2019), the Washington Post warned that the result was âbad for democracyâ (Slater and Majumder 2018) and a CNN analysis suggested it was the beginning of âdangerous new eraâ for the country (Kugelman 2019). The Economist has written an obituary to democracy in Bangladesh (The Economist 2019). Similar sentiments have been expressed by a number of independent analysts (Milam 2019; Dyer and Spectator 2019). The country, which embarked on a democratic path in 1991, and still has the all the perceptible signs of democracy such as opposition political parties, regular elections, and a plethora of media, held two consecutive controversial elections and is sliding toward authoritarianism.
This book provides a brief account of the political developments which entangled democracy and authoritarianism and paved the way for the consequential election of 2018. Therefore, it is also about this reverse journey of democracy in Bangladesh in the past decades at a time when democracy is in retreat throughout the world. As we are aware, it is a time of paradox: âthere are more elections than ever before, and yet the world is becoming less democraticâ (Cheeseman and Klaas 2018). My primary objective is to understand the mechanism of an election manipulation in a hybrid regime. This book will describe how the election was rigged by the ruling party activists in connivance with the members of the civil administration, law enforcement agencies, and the electoral commission as well as how the boundary between state and party became blurred in an endeavor to win an election.
This introduction is followed by eight chapters. It starts with an exploration of the concept of hybrid regime which has been in use since the late 1990s in the context of the growing number of countries which have democratic and authoritarian institutions concurrently. Chapter 2 examines the variations among hybrid regimes. Contextualizing the genesis within democratization studies, the chapter shows that the path-dependent transition theories of the early 1990s failed to comprehend that democratization process can be stalled by the beneficiaries of the downfall of authoritarian governments. The euphoria of democratization, such as the proclamation of âthe end of the historyâ, paid little attention to the experience of Latin America in the 1970s which led OâDonnell and Schmitter to warn that transition from authoritarianism can result in a liberalized authoritarian regime (dictablanda) or a restrictive, illiberal democracy (democradura) (OâDonnel and Schmitter 1986, 9). The discussion also shows that the particular form of the hybrid regime is contingent upon the institutional arrangements, because there is no single archetype of hybrid regime. The conceptual clarification of this chapter sets the scene for the discussion of the case of Bangladesh which is the topic of Chap. 2.
Chapter 3 examines the political history of Bangladesh, especially since the democratic era began in 1991. While the chapter does not delve into the intricate details of political events, it provides the key moments of the transformation of the system of governance. It argues that the country was transformed into an electoral democracy after two decades of civilian and military authoritarianism. The optimism of democracy has been dashed since then and the regimes transformed over the years under two major political partiesâthe Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The political history is viewed through the prism of regime transformation. Between 1991 and 2014, Bangladesh transformed from an electoral regime to semi-authoritarian to competitive authoritarianism to electoral authoritarianism. Neither of the two parties which alternated in state power developed the democratic institutions; instead, they tried to manipulate the constitution to achieve short-term benefits. The rancor between these parties resulting in a trust deficit cost the possibility of democratic consolidation. While other institutions, including the parliament, were quite ineffective, inclusive fair elections held under the caretaker government system incorporated into the constitution, hold the system. The BNP failed to manipulate the system in 2006 and inadvertently created a situation for an all-out assault on this effective institution. The BAL removed the system altogether in 2011 and made the last move toward creating a situation wherein election becomes an instrument for authoritarianism instead of democracy. The process of transformation which began in 2011 accentuated after the 2014 election which was boycotted by the opposition.
The process of regime transformation, in other words, the progressive attenuation of democratic pretense, was not only limited to the constitutional arena but various legal and extralegal measures were employed to this effect. Chapter 4 discusses these measures such as persecution of opposition parties, indiscriminate use of existing draconian laws, muzzling of the press, incidences of extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances, and creating further restrictive laws. It is worth mentioning that the opposition, particularly the BNP, acted aimlessly and became alienated from the citizens, which served as an enabling factor for a hybrid regime like in Russia, Venezuela, and Tanzania. Thus, the chapter is an account of the creation of a climate of fear.
In Chap. 5, the question that is addressed is whether the BNP and the opposition made a mistake when they decided to contest in the 2018 election. Neither the overall political environment nor the organizational situation was favorable to the opposition. Experiences of the local election did not provide any hopeful scenario. Yet, the question is whether they had any other option. The experience of the 2014 boycott weighed heavily on them. The question is, however, intrinsically connected to the larger theoretical questionâdoes election matter in hybrid regimes? Considering the importance of elections in the survival of hybrid regimes, the elections are open to manipulation by the incumbent with the help of state machinery. In this exploration, I show that in the case of hybrid regimes, contrary to the arguments of Lindberg and his colleagues (Lindberg 2009), many elections do not create a path for democratization but instead help institutionalize flawed elections and help the regime thrive.
Chapter 6 documents the events between the announcement of the schedule and the election day. How did the state machinery and the election commission (EC) join together to the detriment of a fair election is discussed. From cancelation of the candidacy of opposition candidates to the delay in allowing foreign election observers, the...