Post-Conflict Syrian State and Nation Building

Economic and Political Development

C. Çakmak, M. Ustaoglu, Kenneth A. Loparo

• Publisher: Palgrave Pivot
• Year: 2015
• ISBN:
  9781137538857
• Topic: Commerce
• Subtopic: Commerce Général

Based on extensive field work involving the leading figures of the diverse Syrian National Coalition, an umbrella initiative of opposition groups fighting against the Assad regime, this study critically evaluates the challenges ahead as well as the inherent opportunities for the post-conflict era in Syria.

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The Arab Spring and the Emergence of the Syrian Crisis

Abstract: The longstanding problems in the Arab countries that have suffered from the repercussions of authoritarian rule culminated in popular protests. The process of protests and riots that started in December 2010 when a street vendor set himself on fire in Tunisia led to the overthrown of totalitarian and authoritarian rules in some of the countries in the region. Although the so-called Arab Spring process is no longer very popular, the repercussions are still being debated among scholars and analysts. A number of people died during the protests and subsequent conflicts in Syria, Libya and Egypt. The popular protests resulted in changes in office in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya whereas in Syria the regime remained in power despite strong popular uprising and ongoing civil war. This part of the research focuses on the root causes and consequences of the Arab Spring that affected Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria.

Çakmak, Cenap and Murat Ustaoğlu. Post-Conflict Syrian State and Nation Building: Economic and Political Development. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015. DOI: 10.1057/9781137538857.0006.

Initial uprisings during the Arab Spring: Tunisia

The Arab world has entered a process of transformation in the aftermath of the popular movements that sought to topple authoritarian regimes since 2011. Tunisia was the site of the first uprisings and attracted a great deal of world attention. Tunisia has suffered economic deprivation, extreme poverty and a high rate of unemployment; a young person set himself on fire in protest against the conditions of his life on December 17, 2010; following this demonstration, the protest grew into a mass uprising that culminated in the removal of Zeynel Abidin bin Ali from power.

The Tunisian uprising was covered in the media as spontaneous reactions; but these incidents also had impacts and spillover effects in other countries in the Arab world. It should be noted that Tunisia did not experience any problems integrating with the international system. The important point here is the emergence of a popular uprising in a country such as Tunisia, which had its own success story of a developing economy despite the fact that it had experienced human rights and democratic deficit problems.¹ However, the most important feature was that Arabs initiated this popular movement.

Studies and reports indicate that corruption was the main motive behind the popular uprising; the popular discontent was exacerbated by police brutality and the absence of democratization in the country. It should also be noted that in addition to the internal dynamics, systemic changes as well as diversification of big power policies had some impact upon the riots in the region. In addition, a more passive voice from the Obama administration in the global campaign against terrorism and a new distribution of power among the major players in Africa should also be considered to have had an effect. In the specific case of Tunisia, the firm relations between the West and this African-Arab nation also likely had an impact. Although it is an Arab state, Tunisia is known for its alignment with the Western approach to Israel. Tunisia has also enjoyed good relations with China.

Thus, Tunisia held a different place among other countries that also experienced the turmoil of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa for several reasons. First, the relationship between the West and Tunisia after its independence was important. Second, Tunisia is a state that can be controlled in geographic terms. Third, bin Ali left the country before blood was shed in the country. The overthrow of bin Ali in a popular riot thus served as a model and source of inspiration for other Arab nations in the region.

Greatest impact: Egypt

Popular riots in Egypt had a different effect than they did in Tunisia. It is generally acknowledged that the impacts of any turmoil or change would have devastating effects in Egypt because of its regional role and power. Egypt has always been a strong state and/or political entity since antiquity; because of its geography and political domination, Egypt has had its own identity that was further strengthened by the lack of a regular colonizing power in its lands.² Egypt is also an important actor because of its firm relations with the West, its constructive ties with Israel and the Suez Canal.³ However, it had experienced serious economic problems, such as poverty and unemployment, and it suffered from the brutality of the Mubarak regime for decades. Finally, what really exacerbated the overall situation was the country’s rampant corruption.

The Muslim Brotherhood was the undisputed main actor in the Egyptian uprising. It was widely assumed that the Brotherhood would come to power because of its visible influence among the people. The ambivalence of the Western world and the international community as to how the Brotherhood should be defined was the main factor for the lack of a coherent approach by the global actors toward what was occurring in Egypt. In general, it may be argued that the international community disfavors the rule of an Islamic actor in Egypt.

In the parliamentary elections held in late 2010, President Hosni Mubarak’s party won 419 seats out of 508; however, election observers noted serious election irregularities. Yet despite the election fraud, it was also evident that the Muslim Brotherhood was the largest and most organized opposition group in the parliament and in Egyptian society. It should also be noted that the riots in Egypt also followed the pattern in Tunisia; the massive protests were triggered by a single and isolated incident of protest.⁴ However, unlike Tunisia, what occurred in Egypt strongly, visibly, and quickly affected its neighboring countries. For this reason, the term Arab Spring was coined after the uprisings in this country. It should also be noted that the protests in Egypt were mainly peaceful and non-violent. However, the masses stood firm and decisive in this process, and the military indirectly supported the riots by remaining impartial and silent.

During this process, US President Obama and British Premier Cameron expressed their concerns over the developments in Egypt because of the clashes between protestors and the police. This concern could be understood as rising worries in the international community that indicated that the same global powers that previously supported certain autocratic leaders were no longer supporting their former allies. The question that must be asked is why the West changed its attitude. The response to this question would reveal that liberal and/or democratic states seek cooperation rather than confrontation in international politics regardless of the regime in a particular country.

Unending revolution: Libya

Libya also experienced the social upheaval of protests, and the attitude of the international community to the popular uprising in this country complicated the matter. The brutality of the regime, its corruption and the particular policies of certain countries vis-à-vis Libya were the main causes of the uprising. However, unlike similar cases in other countries, the people first reacted against the government rather than the head of state and his despotic regime (which later became the target). The conflict turned into a violent civil war based on clashes between government supporters and protestors. It is notable that the initial goal of the protestors was to express dissatisfaction with government policies rather than overthrowing the government.

What made the uprising in Libya a revolution was that Kaddafi lost control of some parts of the country. In addition, Kaddafi’s response to the protestors was extremely brutal, involving the commission of international crimes. Unlike similar cases, the UN Security Council recognized the atrocities committed in the country and authorized a military intervention pursuant to which the Kaddafi regime was toppled. However, the National Transitional Council failed to maintain authority in the entire territory of Libya; the national situation currently remains shaky and unstable mostly because of the lack of a strong central authority.

Uprisings and civil war: Syria

What has been occurring in Syria is the last in the chain of popular movements in the Middle East. The riots were triggered by the failure of the Assad regime to keep its promises that it would introduce reforms, and by mass arrests. It should be noted that what occurred in Syria is closely linked with political concerns, including the lifting of the martial law order—in effect since 1963—as well as recognition of political freedoms.⁵ A review of the ongoing conflict in Syria reveals that there are not too many similarities with the Arab Spring process. Unlike the cases of Tunisia and Egypt, there is now a domestic struggle for power rather than consistent demands for rights and freedoms. The future of the Assad regime remains uncertain.

The involvement of Russia, Iran, China and the West in the domestic war and power struggle in Syria has complicated the entire matter.⁶ However, Turkey is facing a great challenge in whether to abandon its ethically principled stance. Turkey is now unable to stand firm because of the challenges and threats the domestic war in Syria poses to its national security, but the problems that the opposition groups that it has been supporting are experiencing in terms of organizing themselves into a strong and cohesive group make its policy unsustainable.⁷

What must be done now is the major question for Syria. However, there are several reasons that make solving the Syrian crisis particularly difficult. The primary factor is the involvement of different actors in the crisis; Russia’s stance and Iran’s eagerness should be underlined, in particular. The perception in the Western world that the opposition in Syria is mainly Islamist raises questions as to whether the opposition is preferable to the Assad regime. Another major problem is the failure of the international community to create legitimate grounds to end the crisis. The mechanisms foreseeing collective intervention and measures require the consent of the Security Council (where China and Russia enjoy veto power). Any other measures that do not involve the Council seem unlikely given that they may cause serious legitimacy problems.

However, considering that the responsibility to protect has not been fulfilled—as evidenced by the commission of grave crimes, including war crimes and crimes against humanity—a military operation may be considered an option. However, a regime change through a military intervention not consented to by the Security Council may lead to serious legitimacy problems. Therefore, such an extreme measure may have serious repercussions and damages that would require greater attention and stronger measures.

This state of uncertainty creates a burden for Turkey and for other countries in the region. For instance, many actors, including the previous Egyptian administration, failed to deliver strong support for the Syrian opposition despite the ideological closeness between the Muslim Brotherhood and the opposition groups. For Turkey, preserving the normative stance becomes even more difficult as the situation turns graver in the country. The failure of the opposition to create a strong and unified entity and concerns regarding violation of the principle of non-intervention pose serious threats to Turkey. Ending the civil war is a priority to maintain security, stability and peace in Syria.⁸ However, the sustainability of the peace depends on a sound roadmap of political, economic, legal and social reforms. To this end, the first task is to find a set of political arrangements that can address the construction of a national identity, to identify a new political system and to draft a new constitution.

Notes

1 Steven Heydemann, “Tracking the Arab Spring; Syria and ...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Title
• Introduction
• 1  The Arab Spring and the Emergence of the Syrian Crisis
• 2  Identity, Political System and the Constitution
• 3  Restructuring the Syrian Economy
• 4  Restructuring the Security Sector
• 5  Transitional Justice After the Civil War
• 6  Foreign Policy Vision
• Conclusion: Findings and Evaluation
• References
• Index