In May 2017, the University of Reading launched a new interdisciplinary research centre for the study of the American presidency, the Monroe Group. Co-directed by Dr Mara Oliva (Department of History) and Dr Mark Shanahan (Department of Politics and IR), its aim is to encourage dialogue between scholars in the arts, humanities, social sciences and sciences working on all aspects of the office of the US presidency. As part of its creation, the centre hosted a one-day conference on “Trump’s first 100 days.” Historians and political scientists from all over the UK gathered to assess the impact of a presidency like no other. The breath and the quality of the contributions prompted the organisers to put together an edited collection of the essays presented. Charting his first year from both historical and contemporary political standpoints, this book delves into key aspects of the Trump campaign promises around immigration, trade and social and foreign policy and unpicks how the first year of the presidency has played out in delivering them.
The election of billionaire real estate entrepreneur and TV personality, Donald J. Trump
, as 45th president of the USA in November 2016 came as a shock, to say the least, to the international community, the vast majority of the American people (he lost the popular vote by almost 3 million votes) and some would argue to him too. Back in June 2015, his announcement that he would seek the Republican nomination for the presidency was greeted with amusement by many media outlets. It was expected “the Donald” would provide some “entertainment” during the primaries but he would then quickly turn into a funny anecdote of US electoral history. Instead, Trump quickly gained popularity, not only among Republican voters, but especially among angry working-class and blue-collar white voters in battleground states, such as Florida, North Carolina and New Hampshire, and once reliably Democratic states in the Rust Belt area, such as Wisconsin and Michigan.
His aggressive campaign and skilful use of social media divided the country. Despite criticism over his authoritarian leadership style and concerns over his mental health, his promise to “Make America Great Again” by “draining the swamp,” “building a wall” on the border with Mexico
to control illegal immigration and renegotiating international trade deals to put “America first” appealed to that group of the American electorate that felt that the political elite had forgotten them. Presenting himself as the “I alone can fix this” candidate, he eventually overcame all odds and on election night secured the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the White House. He also produced one of the major upsets in modern political history, as the Republican Party gained control of Congress
, both chambers of 32 legislatures and 33 governorships.
While aspects of the 2016 presidential race and reasons behind Trump’s victory are discussed in some of the essays in this edited collection, the main aim of the book is look at how the candidate transitioned into office and how successfully, or not, his promises and plans have been implemented. In his victory speech, president-elect Trump promised unity, “I pledge to every citizen of our land, that I will be a president for all Americans.” He added: “It is time for us to come together as one united people.” Fifteen months into office, the country is still as divided as in 2016.
To be fair, he has been able to keep and deliver on some of the campaign promises. Congress
has passed several laws that specifically aimed at rolling back some of the Obama administration’s regulations. Trump had assured his voters that he would appoint a conservative to the Supreme Court
to replace the late Antonin Scalia
. And he did appoint respected conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch
. Since then, his team has been busy filling more than a hundred vacancies in lower federal courts. The president’s response to Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma in the summer of 2017 has been generally praised.
But the first year in office has mainly been a reality check for this administration and has highlighted how little prepared the president and his team were when they stepped in the White House. Domestically, he has historically low approval ratings. In April 2018, the Washington Post reported that just 1 out of 10 adults approves of the Trump’s presidency but does not have a favourable view of him personally. According to Gallup polls, approval for the USA in the world has also fallen to a historic low with the country on a par with China
.1
Even though supported by a Republican Congress
, the president has been very slow in implementing his promised legislation. Indeed, the administration did not make significant progress until September 2017, when a possible shutdown of the federal government suddenly became a reality. Staff issues have plagued the administration from day one. Michael Flynn
, who was the president’s national security adviser, resigned his post over alleged contacts with the Russian ambassador to the USA before Trump even took office. This led quickly to an ongoing investigation on Trump campaign’s alleged collusion with Moscow to boost his 2016 presidential chances. Appointments to important executive positions were filled very slowly impairing the administration’s efforts to govern effectively and efficiently. Many positions were filled by family members, most notably, the president’s daughter, Ivanka Trump
and her husband, Jared Kushner
. Their business background has raised questions over their competence and possible conflicts of interest.
In foreign policy, the administration is still yet to formulate a coherent strategy. During the campaign, Trump had promised he would put America first, but many of the decisions taken so far have actually damaged US economy and prestige abroad. Within days of taking office, the president sparked global outrage by signing an executive order halting all refugee admissions and temporarily banning people from Muslim-majority Iraq
, Syria
, Iran
, Sudan, Libya, Somalia and Yemen. Several state and local governments openly defied the order. He withdrew from the Transpacific Partnership (TPP), but he offered no replacement for the loss of trade links. Citing concerns over its impact on the US economy, in June 2017, he announced that the USA will also withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord
, but again he offered no alternative plan. More recently, his twitter spat with North Korean
leader Kim Jong-un
and his decision to accept his invitation without consulting with any advisers, and the announcement that the USA will withdraw from the Iran
deal, have left American international credibility completely shuttered.
Lack of preparation, failure in building a team to govern efficiently, reliance on family members and erratic behaviour are the themes that bind together the ten essays of this edited collection. The first part: “A Historical Perspective” compares Trump’s performance against Gold-standard presidents. In the first chapter, Mark Shanahan contrasts two “Outsider” Presidents: Donald Trump, who used his rejection of DC-insiderism to win the White House, and Dwight Eisenhower
, who, equally, had never held political office before his candidacy, but whose innate insiderism, gained through a career circling Washington, enabled a far easier transition to power. In Chapter 2, Mark White places the early presidency of Donald Trump in historical context by comparing his time in the White House to that of John F. Kennedy
. Although Trump’s confrontational style makes him appear unique among US presidents, a close comparison of Trump and JFK reveals similarities as well as differences. In Chapter 3, Iwan Morgan shows how Ronald Reagan’s prior experience in government and cogent ideological convictions enabled him to make more rapid progress in his first year than the inexperienced and un-ideological Trump in setting the core agenda of his administration, appointing key personnel to deliver his vision and winning the big political battles over his taxation and spending programmes.
The second part, “Winning at Home,” looks at domestic issues. In Chapter 4, Lee Marsden looks at the alt-right
, conservative evangelicals and Catholics’ support for Trump in the hope of pushing back against Obama reforms on LGBT
, same-sex marriage, health care, reproductive rights, education and foreign policy. In Chapter 5, Richard Johnson takes stock of the Trump administration’s approach to racial policy compared to that of the Obama administration. The racial symbolism of Donald Trump’s election as president stood in sharp contrast to Barack Obama’s
election and re-election victories. In Chapter 6, Kevern Verney assesses the practical and political problems involved in the construction of a “great, great, wall” along the 1900-mile US border with Mexico
during the first year of the Trump administration, together with its likely financial and environmental costs, and consideration of how, and in what ways, president Trump can deliver on his campaign promise to “make Mexico
pay for that wall.” In Chapter 7, Clodagh Harrington considers what the Trump presidency means for women, in terms of style and substance. Some consideration is given to Trump’s tone and rhetoric both on the campaign trail and as president, along with his stated policy priorities. In Chapter 8, Alex Waddan investigates how consistently and successfully Trump’s candidacy transferred into his presidency in the area of social policy. First, he establishes if Trump delivered on his promise of a “terrific” health care replacement for the Affordable Care Act
and persuaded Speaker Ryan to keep his hands off Social Security
and Medicare
. Second, he analyses if the president’s actions amount to an identifiable Trumpism in social policy. And, finally, he determines to what extent Trump’s social policy diverges from, or converges with, the party of Reagan.
The final part, “Winning Away,” focuses on foreign policy. In Chapter 9, Maria Ryan argues that although Trump’s rhetoric of US foreign policy has remained staunchly nationalist in tone, his first months in office saw him revert to something much closer to the recent historical norm: the pursuit of American global primacy within the context of an economic and political order that is conducive to the interests of the West. In Chapter 10, Mara Oliva looks at Sino-American relations with a particular focus on trade, security, environment and human rights issues. The essay argues that despite much hype to the contrary, President Trump’s foreign policy towards China
is conforming to pattern, constrained by domestic and international factors.
The volume makes no effort to present anything remotely resembling the last word on the topic. It is rather a first step towards a much needed conversation on the evolution of the American presidency in the twenty-first century and its consequences.
Footnotes
1
‘Trump’s Approval Rating Is Back Near First 100 Days Levels,’ Washington Post, 15 April 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/04/15/trumps-approval-rating-is-back-near-first-100-day-levels/?utm_term=.bb5430b2dead.