The New Regional Order in the Middle East

Changes and Challenges

Sara Bazoobandi, Sara Bazoobandi

• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
• Year: 2019
• ISBN:
  9783030278854
• Topic: Politics & International Relations
• Subtopic: Trade & Tariffs
• Index: Politics & International Relations

This book examines some of the driving forces of change in the Middle East and aims to provide a regional outlook. The political and social events of the past years have significantly affected the regional structure across the Middle East, evident in socio-economic systems, security framework and the balance of power across the area. Each chapter focuses on one of the driving forces of change, including the Iran Nuclear Deal, the role of external powers, energy and its political and economic role in the region, the regional balance of power struggle amongst the key regional players and the socio-economic challenges across the region.

© The Author(s) 2020

S. Bazoobandi (ed.)The New Regional Order in the Middle EastInternational Political Economy Serieshttps://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-27885-4_1

Begin Abstract

1. The Middle East North Africa Socio-economic Challenges

Sara Bazoobandi^{1, 2, 3}

(1)

Middle East Risk Consulting, Hamburg, Germany

(2)

Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council within the Global Business and Economics Program and Global Energy Center, Washington, DC, USA

(3)

Nonresident Fellow at Arab Gulf State Institute in Washington, Washington, DC, USA

Sara Bazoobandi

End Abstract

Introduction

Middle Eastern societies have been facing fundamental social, economic and political challenges in recent decades. Many of these challenges were highlighted by the chain of political uprisings across the region that began in 2011. These challenges have arisen partly from changes in a number of social factors. Identities, social and individual values, the definition of the social roles for different genders and state–citizen relations have all begun to change across the region. The degree to which such changes have taken root differs between different countries; nevertheless, the change is widespread and visible in every part of the region. Such changes have presented societies with new challenges for which neither policymakers nor the public have solutions to offer. This chapter will review a number of key socio-economic challenges that face the region. It is worth noting that the order in which the list is conducted does not represent their weight or importance. The chapter will examine the ongoing shift of identities, the negative impact of the lack of efficient socio-political dialogue, absence of social mobility, and poor public policy and planning across the region. It will also review the role of external powers as well as some of the key internal players such as women, youth and entrepreneurs. The chapter will then move on to studying the causes of the governance crisis across the region and identifying the main challenges that the MENA region is facing in the globalised world. Finally, a brief review of water–energy–food nexus will be provided.

Shift of Identities

Similar to the rest of the world, multiple aspects of globalisation have affected the Middle East North Africa region. The way in which citizens across the region define themselves has been influenced by their experience of living in a globalised world. The Arab Youth Survey ¹ is an interesting source to look at empirical evidence to confirm regional trends. Although the sample size of this survey cannot be said to represent the entire population of the region (it includes about 200 interviewees per country), it does tell a clear story about the mindset of the current youth cohort in the Middle East. According to the survey, over the past years, a high number of the young believe that globalisation has had a negative impact on their local cultural heritage. The survey also shows that a high number of the participants want their leaders to do more to improve their personal freedoms, human rights and rights of women. ² The Arab uprisings were to a great extent a result of the people’s desire for such improvements. Globalisation has affected the ways in which individuals define their identities, values and aspiration across the world and the MENA region has been no exception in this sense. Desire for protection of human rights and personal freedoms is now an integral part of people’s identity, which goes beyond the existing definitions associated with the region’s national flags, of being Arab or Muslim.

One of the challenges facing Middle Eastern societies currently is related to the core identities of the region’s citizens in today’s globalised world. Such identities are often in conflict with one another. This is not limited to the sectarian identities but also includes existing political and social identities. For many years, the political apparatus in many Middle Eastern countries has created identities that have been dictated to the citizens by the states. The governments in various countries across the region had heavy-handed campaigns to create identities that suited their own overall political agendas. In addition, for centuries, the patriarchal nature of these societies has also imposed certain identities on citizens. With the forces of globalisation, the influence of some of these ideologies on regional identities has weakened over time. As a result, the socio-political entities that were created to promote those ideologies started to weaken as well. For example, the regional effort to create Arab solidarity no longer resonates with the social, political and economic values and aspirations of most Arab nations across the region.

In 2017, I attended a workshop as a part of a regional peacebuilding initiative. In one of the closed-door sessions that were held under the Chatham House Rule, a regional analyst explained the emergence of the new identities across the region as follows:

Bigger countries in the region have much bigger challenges to deal with and are no longer focused on the regional issues. Simple socio-economic issues such as education, employment and building one’s life through the ranks of the society are the main priorities for their young citizens. The previous regional sentiment towards the Arab neighbours that was boosted by the concept of Arab solidarity has begun to fade and new identities started to emerge across the region. Today, people, particularly the youth, define themselves through a rather complex combination of identities. The younger generations no longer consider themselves only as Arabs or Muslims. They also describe themselves as Asians, Africans or Mediterranean. Such a shift of identities has had significant economic consequences as well. Economic relations have diversified beyond the regional partners. Over the past years, regional economies have been building partnerships with Africa, Russia and China.

Lack of Efficient Channels for Dialogue

The next challenge facing societies across the region is the lack of social and political dialogue at various levels. Traditionally, the region has been missing efficient channels for dialogue at both national and regional level. At the national level, the democratic institutions through which the citizens are allowed to communicate with the political elite have been corrupt or completely manipulated by the security apparatus or the political elite. Moreover, the political leadership has structurally targeted freedom of expression and it has been always controlled and restricted due to national security concerns. Needless to say, the definition of national security has remained broad and intentionally vague across the region (for example, through lack of clarity in the legal description of political crime across the region). Bloggers, journalists, cartoonists, students, civil right activists, women’s rights activists, academics, former politicians and community leaders have all been targeted by the states’ security systems across the region and portrayed as national security threats.

Throughout more than two years of research for this book, I have travelled fairly frequently to various parts of the region and had numerous conversations with people across the board (e.g. journalists, activists, academics) about the future of the region. The point most frequently raised in these discussions was that the only solution to address social, political and economic challenges that the region is facing is to implement various drastic reforms. When asked about the prospect of such reforms, though, most people were relatively cynical and believed that the reforms will take a very long time. Not surprisingly, I came across similar results in the Arab Youth Survey (see the graph below). The Arab Youth Survey results show that the majority of survey participants were more optimistic about the prospect of reform and the future of the region at the beginning of the Arab uprising. As the time passed, however, a strong sense of cynicism has grown across the region.

Overall, events across the region confirm that the change, particularly since the Arab uprisings, is going in a completely opposite direction from what is required. The MENA region is losing the global competition where innovation, accountability, critical thinking, transparency and access to (at least some) information are the key factors for success. Moreover, serious security concerns throughout the region, open conflicts in many countries that often, directly or indirectly, affected other nations have influenced the direction of change in the region. As a result, at the regional level, there is a vacuum of trust and communication at highest political level. Whilst political leaders have been alienating their counterparts by pushing for their own agendas, restrictions to the right to travel, widespread state-sponsored media, regional security and ideological conflicts have also divided people at the grassroots level (Fig. 1.1).

Fig. 1.1

Arab Youth Survey: How strongly do you agree or disagree with the statement?

(Source Arab Youth Survey [2016], available at: http://​www.​arabyouthsurvey.​com/​pdf/​2016-AYS-Presentation-EN_​12042016100316.​pdf)

*Arab Youth Survey includes sample data from 16 Arab countries: GCC, Jordan, Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia

Absence of Social Mobility

The lack of social mobility is both another pressing challenge and a significant driver of social discontent across the region. This stems from a lack of values to define social transformation across the region. Values that define social transformation and the tools and mechanisms for social transformation have been neglected in Middle Eastern societies. Institutions, bureaucratic structure, cultural values and human capital development required for the social transformation in the region have not developed in ways conducive to social mobility. As a result, whilst most of the societies within the global community have moved on to a level of technological, economic and political structures which allow easier social transformation, Middle Eastern societies have been struggling to implement simple changes to allow individuals to improve their social status. In most societies across the region, having stronger links with the political elite has been perceived as the best, and indeed the shortest, way to access resources and opportunities. Individual merit, determination and creativity have all been outdone by personal connections with influential political figures.

There are however, some agents for change across the region with great potential to change the existing dynamics. Women, youth and entrepreneurs are perhaps, in the current socio-political climate, the most influential agents for change. In many countries women are effecting change, at varying paces and making their voices heard. For example, more than half of the graduates in many countries in the MENA region are female. Given the demographic structure of the region, the majority of the citizens in MENA are young and hold great potential for creating innovative solutions and fighting the current obstacles to social transformation. In practice, however, the youth potential is restricted by both: by a lack of opportunities and by the restrictiveness of the socio-political space. Finally, entrepreneurs have demonstrated impressive potential for change in the region. There are numerous examples of successful entrepreneurial solutions across the region. Regional entrepreneurs have introduced creative solutions in a broad range of social, environmental and economic areas such as waste management, traffic, food and energy. Whilst such solutions have hopeful prospects for creating jobs, their operating environment is a real obstacle to development and success.

Exclusionary Public Policy

The exclusionary public policies of governments across the region also present another set of challenges. The Middle Eastern political elites have had carefully defined criteria based on which the ‘inner circles’ are created. Ideological orientation and personal or family links have been considered as key factors to create an inner circle to which the political elite has given varying degrees of access to power. Often those who comply with the dominant ideology of the elite (political or religious or both) or have certain personal or family links with the ruling elite are provided with better access to resources and political power. This has led to widespread social dissatisfaction and various forms of radicalisation that have emerged across the region over the past decades. In most of the developed globalised societies, governments have introduced welfare systems that aim to empower the middle classes and boost social mobility. However, in the Middle East, such welfare systems either do not exist or do not function efficiently.

Looking at global political history, there are very few cases in which political power has been given up easily. Transformation of power is indeed a long struggle involving frequent forward steps and setbacks. The Middle East is no exception to such a trend. As a result, for many decades, the same political powerhouses have dominated the social, political and economic structure in most of the MENA countries. The main reasons for the limited push for changing the monopoly of political power in the region is to be found in the basics of the Arab Human Development Reports: the deficits in freedom, education and women’s participation. Another key element has been the state ‘buying’ loyalty from the citizens; and, the role of the external factors such as historical ones rela...

Table of contents

• Cover
• Front Matter
• 1. The Middle East North Africa Socio-economic Challenges
• 2. GCC Oil Wealth: The Power and the People
• 3. The Realignment of Regional Politics and the Future of the Gulf Cooperation Council
• 4. Iran Nuclear Programme, a Brief History
• 5. The Role of External Powers: Global Actors (Part I)
• 6. The Role of External Powers: Regional Actors (Part II)