This book is the outcome of a report that I addressed under the same title, that is, “Pakistan and a World in Disorder,” to the senior officers of the Pakistan Foreign Ministry in August 1995 when I was serving as the Ambassador of Pakistan to the Netherlands. The report made a forceful case for the synthesis of the country’s security, economic, and foreign policies into a grand strategy. My concern then was, as it still is, that our foreign policy was out of sync with the ground realities at regional and global levels, it failed the tests of a sound foreign policy, and, therefore, it called for a fundamental review. The report was divided into four sections: characteristics of the post–Cold War era, tests of a sound foreign policy, evaluation of Pakistan’s current foreign policy, and required policy adjustments in Pakistan’s policies.
The report elicited a mild degree of interest from some of the senior officers of the Pakistan Foreign Ministry. On the whole, the ministry remained preoccupied and content with tactical day-to-day adjustments of foreign policy instead of focusing on its strategic directions. In view of this flaw, the inertia, and the absence of long-term policy planning from which the Pakistan Foreign Office has generally suffered, barring some notable exceptions here and there, the report failed to generate the fundamental review of our policies that it had called for.
With the passage of time as I became more and more familiar with the ad hoc manner in which Pakistan’s major policy decisions were taken without any advance planning or necessary spade work and, many a time, without necessary coordination among the relevant ministries/departments of the government, I have become convinced of the need for a major overhaul of its policy framework and policies. A partial rather than a comprehensive approach to policy making in Pakistan is a major flaw from which Pakistan’s policy-making process continues to suffer. To some extent, this flaw is the result of the turf war between the various ministries and departments of the government of Pakistan. Pakistan’s defense establishment, for instance, has often insisted on the adoption and pursuit of security policies that were out of sync with the compulsions of the country’s economic and diplomatic policies. But this flaw of a partial approach in policy formulation also reflects the absence of the concept and practice of a grand strategy that should bring into a coherent whole the country’s political, economic, security, and diplomatic policies.
This book, as its title, Pakistan and a World in Disorder—A Grand Strategy for the Twenty-First Century, suggests, attempts to overcome this conceptual and operational flaw in the country’s policy-making process by proposing the adoption of a coherent and well-thought-out grand strategy. It attempts to delineate the role that Pakistan should play in its best long-term interests in the largely anarchic world of the twenty-first century. Its main aim is to provide guidance to Pakistan’s policy makers in the formulation of a grand strategy for the country covering its political, diplomatic, security, and economic policies. The proposed grand strategy has to be based on an in-depth analysis of the evolving global and regional security environment within the framework of which it must operate. It must also draw appropriate lessons from Pakistan’s past experience.
The book, therefore, in its initial chapters provides an analysis of the emerging global and regional security environment followed by a critical evaluation of the past record of Pakistan’s foreign policy bringing out both its successes and failures, and its strengths and weaknesses. Taking into account these analyses and the country’s past performance in general in the security and economic fields, it draws conclusions regarding the course that Pakistan should adopt in steering the ship of state in the choppy waters of international politics of the current century. It advocates a comprehensive rather than a partial approach to policy making. Keeping in view all of these factors, it provides guidelines for a grand strategy for Pakistan toward ensuring its security and prosperity, and for achieving a dignified place for the country in the comity of nations in the twenty-first century.
Chapter 2, entitled “A World in Disorder,” analyzes the salient features and characteristics of the emerging global order of the twenty-first century and draws some general conclusions for the benefit of Pakistan’s policy makers. It takes note, inter alia, of the anarchic nature of global politics, the theses of the end of history and the clash of civilizations, the passage of the US unipolar moment, the prevalence of power politics, the weakened position of the UN on strategic issues of international peace and security, the primacy of economic forces, globalization, regional economic integration, the issues of nuclear proliferation and terrorism, and the implications of a knowledge-driven world.
Chapter 3 deals with “China’s Rise and the Global Order.” It traces the background of China’s dramatic rise during the past three decades and analyzes its long-term strategic and economic implications for Pakistan, the region, and the current West-dominated and US-led global order.
Chapter 4 takes note of India’s rise and analyzes India’s global and regional strategic policies under the title “India—an Aspiring Hegemon.” It also brings out the likely repercussions of India’s quest for hegemony in South Asia for Pakistan and the rest of the region.
Chapter 5, under the title “Regionalism and Pakistan,” focuses on the rationale for the emergence of regional economic groupings in various parts of the world and analyzes Pakistan’s options for regional cooperation after comparing the pros and cons of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) and the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
Chapter 6, entitled “Post-2014 Afghanistan,” as the title suggests, tries to anticipate the likely development of the situation in Afghanistan and its implications for the regional countries, especially Pakistan. It also recommends policy measures for the restoration of durable peace and stability in Afghanistan, which is a sine qua non for durable peace and stability in Pakistan and the region as a whole.
Chapter 7, under the title “Iran—An Estranged Friend,” focuses on the evolution of Pakistan-Iran relations after the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the mistakes that both countries have made in managing this vital relationship. Drawing on the lessons of the past, it presents some recommendations for the improvement of Pakistan-Iran relations within the framework of the emerging regional and global scenario.
Chapter 8 deals with “Islamophobia and the West.” It takes note of the lingering misunderstandings and misconceptions between Islam and the West, which sometimes cause tensions, strains and complexities in international relations, and calls for dialogue among civilizations to promote mutual understanding, tolerance, and harmony. The failure of the international community to move in that direction would aggravate tensions at global and regional levels that would have their consequential negative repercussions on Pakistan also.
Chapter 9 is a critical evaluation of Pakistan’s foreign policy as the title, “Evaluation of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy,” suggests. It lays bare the major flaws from which Pakistan’s foreign policy has historically suffered and continues to suffer while indicating broadly the directions that Pakistan’s foreign policy should take on the basis of the lessons learnt from the past experience.
Chapter 10, entitled “Towards Comprehensive Security,” presents a case for the adoption of a comprehensive approach toward national security in contrast with the uni-dimensional and military-dominated national security policy that Pakistan has followed in the past and continues to do even now.
Chapter 11, the final chapter, under the title “A Grand Strategy for Pakistan,” brings together the various strands of thought given in earlier chapters and, on the basis of an analysis of the desirable features of strategy and grand strategy, proposes a grand strategy for Pakistan to safeguard and promote its national interests in the twenty-first century.
This is not a book on the history of Pakistan’s foreign policy although the literature available on it has been duly analyzed in reaching the conclusions and recommendations relevant to the formulation of a grand strategy for Pakistan for the twenty-first century. It is also not a book exclusively dealing with Pakistan’s foreign policy, as the scope of the grand strategy is much wider than that. The book instead aims at evolving guidelines for Pakistan’s grand strategy covering its political, economic, security, and foreign policies, taking into account the emerging global and regional security environment and the country’s past experience.
There is hardly a book on the market that attempts to present a comprehensive analysis of the various factors affecting Pakistan’s political stability, security, foreign affairs, and economic prosperity with a view to recommending a grand strategy for the country for meeting the challenges of the twenty-first century. There is thus an acute need for a book that would try to provide policy makers with guidelines for a grand strategy for Pakistan based on an in-depth analysis of the global and regional security environment. Hopefully, this book, by filling up this void, would provide a useful insight into the ways and means of ensuring a secure and prosperous future for Pakistan in the context of the emerging regional and global security environment. It is further hoped that the book would help generate a serious debate both in governmental and academic circles in Pakistan on the contours of the country’s grand strategy in the turbulent times to come.
Pakistan, because of its status as a de facto nuclear-weapon state and its critically important strategic location at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and the Middle East, is destined to play an important role in regional affairs covering Afghanistan, Iran, China, Central Asia, the Persian Gulf, and India. Developments in Pakistan and its policies, good or bad, inevitably will have wide-ranging repercussions on the rest of the world, as Afghanistan’s history over the past three and a half decades conclusively shows. How Pakistan conducts its internal and external policies should, therefore, be a matter of interest to the world outside. Hopefully, students of foreign policy, security, and strategy, researchers and general readers, both in Pakistan and abroad, would find this book useful and interesting in comprehending the complexities and the constraints within which this de facto nuclear-weapon state of about 190 million people has to operate in the anarchic world of the twenty-first century.