The Setting
Heading into the 2016 national election cycle in the United States of America, conventional wisdom and most public polling expected the Democratic Party to pick up several seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate, and even possibly win majority control of the upper chamber. It was also widely thought that Hillary Clinton would win the presidency. Donald Trump and his insurgent, nationalist, populist campaign succeeded in winning the Republican nomination. Trump then rode an improbable wave of support from a coalition of reliably Republican states and the working class Democratic states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, to achieve a 306–232 Electoral College victory even as Clinton won the popular vote by more than three million votes.
Trump’s presidential victory was accompanied by Republicans holding their majorities in both chambers of Congress. Although the GOP lost two seats in the Senate and six in the House, they retained a 52–48 lead in the Senate and a 241–194 margin in the House to commence the 115th Congress. There were instances of ticket splitting across the country, but the electoral processes led to an overall outcome of unified party government in America, leaving in its wake a divided electorate and frayed nation. Large-scale protests and movements to resist the Trump presidency followed.
Term-limited President Barack Obama , who claimed that Trump was “uniquely unqualified for the job,” was as surprised and dismayed as many Americans by the presidential election results since his political and personal legacies were on the line. In a press conference six days after the election, Obama reflected on the historic nature of his party’s loss as well as on the big picture in American politics. Obama recollected 2004 when Democrat John Kerry lost to President George W. Bush and Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) lost his reelection bid. Obama, then a freshman from Illinois, and Ken Salazar of Colorado, were the only two non-incumbent Democrats in 2004 to win Senate seats. “Things change pretty rapidly, but they don’t change inevitably,” said Obama, “They change because you work for it. Nobody said democracy’s supposed to be easy. It’s hard. And in a big country like this, it probably should be hard” (Thrush and Mccaskill 2016).
The pendulum swings in U.S. politics between Democrat and Republican control of the legislative and executive branches. Intensity over policies wax and wane as issues emerge and the public and political parties react to them. Democrats began the Obama presidency in 2009 with an advantage of 16 seats in the Senate and 79 seats in the House. As Obama left office in 2017, Democrats were at a deficit of four in the Senate and 47 in the House. The passage in March 2010 of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), nicknamed Obamacare , used much of the political capital that Democrats earned in 2008 . In the 2010 midterm , aided by the rise of the fiscally conservative tea party movement , Republicans took majority control of the House. Since then, much of Obama’s policy agenda was blocked by the legislative branch. Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) publicly said his goal was to make Obama a one-term president. He did not succeed, as Obama won re-election in 2012 , but McConnell did help Republicans capture the Senate majority in 2014 . With control of both chambers of Congress, Republicans then needed to win the presidency in 2016 in order to follow through on their signature campaign promise delivered across the country to repeal and replace Obamacare. (Table 1.1)
Table 1.1
Partisan breakdown of U.S. Senate and U.S. House from 2006 to 2016
Year | Senate | House | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democrats | Republicans | Independents | Net change | Democrats | Republicans | Net change | |
2006 | 49 | 49 | 2 | +5 D | 233 | 203 | +22 D |
2008 | 57 | 41 | 2 | +8 D | 257 | 178 | +24 D |
2010 | 51 | 47 | 2 | +6 R | 193 | 242 | +64 R |
2012 | 53 | 45 | 2 | +2 D | 201 | 234 | +8 D |
2014 | 44 | 54 | 2 | +9 R | 188 | 247 | +13 R |
2016 | 46 | 52 | 2 | +2 D | 194 | 241 | +6 D |
114th Congress
The 114th Congress was largely painted in the press and public opinion as a “do nothing” Congress, although it was slightly more productive than the past two Congresses (Blake 2016). Budget battles between conservative and moderate Republicans took up much time and led to the resignation of John Boehner (R-OH) as House Speaker. The actual accomplishments of the 114th Congress were workmanlike and dealt with issues of transportation, international trade, and the bipartisan 21st Century Cures Act which dealt with medical research and mental health reform (“A look back” 2016). Where Congress did nothing was in stalling action on immigration, gun control, tax policy, and health care reform and, in the case of the Senate, failing to confirm a U.S. Supreme Court nominee. There was little common ground between a Republican-majority Congress and Democratic President Obama in the final years of his presidency. Republicans continued to vote for bills to repeal the ACA knowing that Obama would veto them, and both parties jockeyed for positions they perceived as electorally beneficial in 2016.
A high-profile debate played out over a bill that was intended to allow families of people who died in the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack to sue Saudi Arabia for alleged support given to the attackers. President Obama vetoed the bill, claiming it threatened national security and opened American citizens living abroad to attack. Congress exercised its only override of an Obama veto to put the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorisms Act (JASTA) into effect (NPR 2016).
A mass shooting at a nightclub in Orlando, FL, prompted expedited discussions on a series of gun control bills just prior to the 2016 summer break. In the Senate, moderate Republican Susan Collins (R-ME) led a bipartisan approach after four prior bills were defeated by the conservative majority. That Senate bill got 52 votes, short of the 60 needed to block a filibuster. Unable to advance legislation in the House, Democrats organized a “sit-in” on the House floor in effort to force a vote on gun control legislation. The 25-hour sit-in led by Representative John Lewis (D-GA) and others was unprecedented but ultimately unsuccessful. Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) claimed that Democrats were interfering with the institutional integrity of the House and ordered an early recess which resulted in turning off C-SPAN television coverage. Democrats used social media to send live videos and messages of their floor protest to the world in violation of House rules (Herszenhorn and Huertteman 2016). This incident was emblematic of the legislative environment that members of Congress faced on Capitol Hill, while simultaneously many were running in contentious campaigns in their home districts and states.
The 2016 Campaigns
The top issue to more than half of voters was the economy (52%). Other issues that touched the electorate were terrorism (18%), immigration (13%) and foreign policy (13%) (CNN Exit Polls 2016). While these issues plus health care reform were significant talking points on the campaign trail, the dominant campaign theme across the country was the presidential race featuring billionaire businessman Donald Trump and former Secretary of State, U.S. Senator, and First Lady Hillary Clinton .
Trump’s first Senate backer was Jeff Sessions (R-AL). About 30 Senators eventually endorsed Trump. But the only Republicans facing a competitive re-election to voice support for Trump were Roy Blunt in Missouri, Richard Burr in North Carolina, and Marco Rubio in Florida. Others were from reliably Republican “red” states. Rubio, from “purple” Florida, was convinced by party leaders to break an earlier promise not to run for re-election when he launched his unsuccessful presidential bid. Rubio claimed he ran to serve as a check on whomever won the presidency, Clinton or Trump, and did not appear at campaign events with Trump in Florida.
Chris Collins (R-NY) was the first sitting House member to endorse Trump in the contentious Republican presidential primary process. As Trump defeated 16 opponents, other House members slowly got behind him. Eventually, around 200 current and former U.S. Representatives officially endorsed him. Clinton, who had a prolonged primary challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), also initially had a fractured party before receiving the endorsement of practically every Democratic electe...