China’s profile in international relations underwent a decisive change in the aftermath of the Tian’anmen Square incidents of 1989 and the Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995–1996. China’s resulting isolation further intensified perceptions of the country as a rising global power that did not fit into the existing system of international institutions and posed a potential threat to its Asian neighbours. China’s efforts to modernise and aggrandise its armed forces further fostered these perceptions. Starting from this humble position, China has become increasingly active in multilateral fora and, following its successful applications for access to international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), China has expanded its relations with the global system, benefiting both its economy and its reputation. In the first decade of the new millennium China was treated as a ‘responsible stakeholder’ of the established (Western-style) international system.
But how substantial has the shift in China’s foreign policy been? How reliable is China’s approach towards multilateral regional political institutions? Have the reasons for the ‘China threat’ perception basically changed? The commissioning of China’s first aircraft carrier as an expression of its growing military capabilities, together with recent activities to artificially enlarge occupied islets in the disputed South China Sea have again aroused suspicions among China’s neighbours about the country’s future behaviour in resolving conflicts.
We are witnessing the beginning of a Chinese century! Given its population, economic importance, and steadily growing political (and military) might, future developments of the global (political/financial/economic/security) system can only be sustained with the cooperation of China. China has emancipated itself from being a junior partner of the USA for the economy’s sake – the de facto alliance with Russia is an expression of the new level of Chinese self-esteem in foreign affairs.
The understanding of China’s new foreign policy, its tactics within multilateral organisations, and its approaches to conflict resolution are elementary requirements for any scholar or policymaker seeking to grasp the new realities of international relations. Knowledge of the newly established institutions of the evolving Asian political system is essential for analysing the politics of this continent. Underlying these observations of the political realm are the hard facts of realpolitik – military capabilities.
This book offers a detailed analysis of the status quo of China’s armed forces, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and the new strategic options for China based on these new military capabilities. Accurate analysis of China’s military modernisation programme enables an objective assessment of the basis for a ‘China threat’ perception. However, (threat) perceptions are never unemotional but the result of a highly subjective estimate. They include expectations of future behaviour and are therefore, like all prognoses, prone to individual misjudgements. Threat perceptions are based on previous behaviour and past experiences – once reached, a judgement about an actor and its benign/malign attitude is hard to alter and this can only be achieved by a long-term process of positive signals. But China’s disastrous reputation in the mid-1990s has dramatically improved in less than a decade. The process of the repair of this reputation and the development of China’s new foreign policy are the subjects of this book.
The aspects of China’s behaviour analysed in this book are evaluated in a qualitative rather than a merely quantitative manner. Therefore, China’s military modernisation programme is analysed in detail to provide answers to question about the nature and overall scale of this build-up (offensive/defensive), and the strategic options for the Chinese armed forces. The qualitative development of China’s armed forces is analysed in respect of its potential impact on the ‘China threat’ perception. Whether China focuses on the development of main battle tanks or frigates is of huge importance for the security analysis and threat perception of neighbouring countries. In a more detailed analysis, whether China’s navy purchases diesel-powered or nuclear-powered submarines has a decisive influence on military capabilities and thus impacts on strategic threat assessments. To understand the nature of the PLA’s modernisation efforts and their impact on the regional security structure, Part I of this book provides a detailed analysis of the main aspects of China’s military modernisation programme. The purpose is to evaluate how threatening China’s military build-up has really been and whether its military modernisation programme justifies concerns about a growing ‘China threat’.
Security analysts evaluate the modernisation programme of the PLA in isolation from China’s participation in multilateral organisations, while political analysts evaluate China’s new multilateral policies and economic cooperation in isolation from security concerns. As a result, the assessment of China’s foreign policy in the aftermath of the Tian’anmen Square incidents depends on the focus of analysis (e.g., focus on economic cooperation, military modernisation or political participation in multilateral organisations). What is lacking is a combination of the results of these studies which separately analyse China’s growing economic and military capabilities, the country’s participation in multilateral organisations and the impact of its foreign policy on regional institutions and regimes. China’s policymakers conceptualise a grand strategy for the country’s future development, implemented in concert by diplomats, state-owned companies and the armed forces. A proper analysis of China’s new foreign policy has thus to respect all three realms.
Part II, therefore, analyses the political realm, namely China’s new foreign policy and its approach towards resolving conflicts. For this purpose, a qualitative analysis of China’s participation in initiatives led by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is conducted. China’s participation is analysed not only by quantitative measures (i.e., number of attendances at summits, number of joint declarations and statements), although these data are also considered, but also by indicators which go beyond mere activity to analyse the degree of substantial (multilateral) collaboration in these institutions. For this purpose, the reports and assessments of other participants, organisers and scholars are evaluated. The quality of China’s participation is evaluated by defined indicators (such as progress reached in institutionalisation, economic cooperation, security cooperation and in regard to territorial disputes).
Several indicators allow an assessment of the quality of China’s participation in international organisations after the Tian’anmen incidents. An analytical concept measuring the performance of a regional organisation in accordance with Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) analysis is also used. The criteria encompass:
To operationalise the question of the quality of participation, participation will be measured in an output analysis of the following indicators:
- (a)
avoiding, containing or sublimating armed conflict;- (b)
positive military cooperation both for ‘old’ (allied defence) and ‘new’ (peace missions) tasks;- (c)
the promotion of security sector reform and democracy or good governance in general; and- (d)
the combating of non-traditional security threats, including those that arise at the interface between the worlds of security, the economy and society. (Bailes and Cottey 2006)
- Institutionalisation: periodical meetings, the establishment of a proper secretariat, the appointment of a chair and supporting staff, legally binding agreements and treaties as a result of the multilateral collaboration, establishment of new regimes, norms and rule-sets.
- Economic cooperation: development of trade relations, cooperation in energy security, establishment of common markets, foreign direct investment (FDI), free trade areas (FTAs).
- Security cooperation: binding security agreements/treaties, transparency, confidence-building measures (CBMs) including transparency, exchange of military personnel, joint military exercises, weapon systems deliveries (plus joint development, technique transfer), joint forces (non-traditional security).
- Territorial disputes: demilitarisation, cooperation projects in disputed territories, resolution of border disputes.
The analysis of these indicators of China’s participation in ASEAN-led activities results in an evaluation of the quality of its participation in this multilateral organisation. Overall, this analysis contributes to answering the question of whether it is China’s foreign policy that has substantially changed (towards multilateralism) in the aftermath of the ‘Tian’anmen incident’, or merely the performance of it. The territorial disputes in the South China Sea are indicated as a major conflict between China and some ASEAN member states: therefore, special attention is paid to the efforts towards and progress achieved on this issue.
During recent decades, China has emerged as a powerful actor within international relations, its ascendancy from developing country to major power occurring at an impressive pace. Naturally, many scholars have analysed this development, especially China’s behaviour in international relations and its foreign policy in the aftermath of 1989. Of heightened interest is the character of China’s foreign policy, and whether China will behave as a ‘responsible stakeholder’ (Zoellick 2005) in the international system or a proponent of a multipolar system and thus threaten the existing order. China’s participation in international organisations is analysed in a qualitative manner, to provide answers to the question of whether and how China’s behaviour in international relations has changed. An analysis of China’s participation in international organisations since the opening up of the country in the early 1990s is therefore appropriate to evaluate the quality of this participation in respect of China’s acceptance of multilateralism.The analysis of China’s relation to ASEAN provides further insights into the development of China’s foreign policy.
The analysis of approaches to territorial disputes in the South China Sea (SCS), a main obstacle for deepened China–ASEAN relations, provides insights into China’s behaviour in discussions about territorial disputes. Finally, given the recent shift in the focus of US strategic considerations to the Asia-Pacific region (known as the ‘US Pivot to Asia’) and the many stakeholders of the SCS disputes with US backing, these disputes are a prime example of how the USA and China deal with conflicts of interests.
By analysing China’s participation in the cooperation efforts of the multilateral organisations of Southeast Asia, this book contributes to an understanding of the development of China’s foreign policy and provides information about the progress achieved through cooperation in the realms of politics, economics, and security. China’s new approach towards international relations is illustrated by an analysis of the history, character, and status quo of these territorial conflicts and (failed) resolution efforts.
The two parts of this book are intertwined and written in consecutively but can also stand alone and be read independently from each other. Part I analyses the emergence and development of a ‘China threat’ perception, China’s military development, the invention and progress of indigenous weapon systems and the military exercises conducted during the past two decades. Part II analyses the political aspects of China’s new foreign policy, its approach towards Asian institutions, China–ASEAN relations, the territorial conflicts of the SCS and China’s role in efforts to resolve (or at least ease) them.
This book offers a toolbox for grasping China’s new foreign policy; used appropriately it can forestall over-optimistic expectations as well as anxious misperceptions of China’s behaviour in international relations. With this background knowledge and introduction to Asian political mechanisms, a better informed and more profound assessment of China’s behaviour in current and future political and security crises is possible.
Bibliography
Bailes, Alyson J.K., and Andrew Cottey. 2006. Regional security cooperation in the early 21st century. In SIPRI yearbook 2006: Armaments, disarmament and international security. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Zoellick, Robert B. 2005. Whither China: From membership to responsibility? New York: National Committee on United States-China Relations.