Change KillsâIf You Donât Have the Right Teams
Talking about the rapid pace of technology-driven change has become commonplace. These days, even schoolchildren are taught about the power of Mooreâs law, that measure of semiconductor memory chip development that has now become the metronome of the modern world. But our acceptance of the reality of this change doesnât necessarily mean that we understand it, or that we have developed effective strategies to cope with it. In fact, the reality of this ever-accelerating change is stranger and more challenging that we can imagine.
Gordon Moore, a cofounder of Fairchild Semiconductor (and later of Intel Corporation), first devised his law in 1965 in an article for Electronics magazine. The point Moore wanted to make was that memory chips, invented just a few years before, were improving at a dizzying speed. He tried to plot their price and performance points on regular graph paper, but they took off too fast, so he switched to logarithmic graph paper (that is, to show exponential growth), and he got a nice straight and shallow line. It showed that the performance of these chips was doubling every couple of years (eighteen months at the time, twenty-four months now).
It was an impressive graph, but no one then, not even Moore, realized that this graph would continue to hold for fifty years and set the blistering pace of change for the modern world. We all now live in the world of Mooreâs law, and we likely will for at least another quarter century. Itâs interesting to note how shallow that curve is for the first forty years, until about 2005. Yet along that comparatively flat curve can be found the births of the minicomputer, the microprocessor, the digital calculator, computer gaming, the personal computer, the Internet, robotics, wireless telephony, the smartphone, and electronic commerce. After 2005, as we race toward twenty-five billion transistors per chip, the curve goes almost straight up, heading toward infinity. Are we really prepared for this? If the entire digital age occurred in the foothills, what happens now that we are entering the Himalayas?
We have grown so accustomed to living in the world of Mooreâs law that we forget weâre dealing with one of the most explosive forces in history. Weâve become so adept at predicting, incorporating, and assimilating each new upward click of the curve that we assume we have this monster under control. We donât.
There is a second great exponential law that has emerged out of the digital world to redefine modern life: Metcalfeâs law. It says that the value of a network is proportional to the square (or a similar multiple) of the number of users. In other words, each new addition adds value to the Web out of the usual proportion to its presence. And with the emerging Internet of Things, those âusersâ may soon include 100 billion new smart devices as wellâsensors, cameras, robots, drones, and the like. As far back as 2005, Googleâs CEO, Eric Schmidt, estimated the Internetâs data size to be 5 million terabytes (thatâs eighteen zeros).1 Today, the Internet is 60,000 times larger, at 300 exabytes. John Chambers, CEO of Cisco, says the âInternet of Everythingâ is worth $14.4 trillion, growing more than 20 percent per year.
But, as with Mooreâs law, the exponential implications of Metcalfeâs law are less noticed. Fifteen years ago, about a billion people regularly jumped onto the Web. Even then, that number already made the Internet the largest market in human history. But that was just the beginning. As of 2010, another billion people had joined the global marketplace. By 2012, 2.5 billion people around the world had joined the global, Internet-based marketplace.2 Today that number likely exceeds 3 billion. And that number has yet to include those scores of billions of sensors and smart devices that will also soon be joining the Internet. Thus, according to Metcalfeâs law, the number of possible digital connections among people and sensors will grow into the trillions times trillionsâa practical infinity.
But just sticking to humans, we find that the third billion is very different from the first two. Most of this cohort lives in the developing world and probably in a teeming metropolis that barely existed twenty years ago. These users may never see an annual income of more than a few hundred dollars per year, and may have never driven in an automobile, much less flown on an airplane. Nonetheless, even if they are just selling items on eBay from a cellphone rented by the minute in a corner of some Third World city, they are adding value to the global economy. Just as important, they are helping create yet one more new submarket in addition to the millions springing up throughout the world. Even in developed countries, the Internetâs contribution to global GNP is now 21 percent, double what it was just five years ago.3 It is growing at an even faster pace in the developing world.
Letâs keep goingâbecause waiting out there is a fourth billion, about which we know almost nothing. They live in some of the poorest and most isolated places in the world, with little contact with even the products of the developed worldâmany have never used money or been in a car, and have seen an airplane only from afar. But they will join the global economy when the planet is completely covered with wireless connectivity. They will do so through minutes rented on a smartphone offered from a cardboard hut on a corner in some teeming Third World supermetropolis, or from one of the free phones handed out by the millions by the big telecom companies looking for new customers.
Soon these third and fourth billions will be part of the Internet-based global economy. Companies, desperate for their business and the benefits of Metcalfeâs law, will use creative new means to seek them out and bring them onto the Webâeven as the nature of that Web will be continuously transforming, thanks to Mooreâs law.
TWO LAWS BUT NO GUARANTEES
So where does that leave us? Mass scale and, with it, global reach, will be incredibly valuable in the twenty-first century. But will they be enough to capture the huge opportunities offered by the third and fourth billions? Our conclusion: no. Thatâs because scale and reach are rapidly being commoditized. You can be a small company, and your opportunities to make products and services with large-scale efficiency are better than everâand will become better yet in the future. A crucial understanding of Mooreâs law is that it creates excess capacityâand not just in the world of electronics. For instance, extremely precise horizontal drilling far beneath the earthâs surface makes it possible to tap new oil sources trapped in shale rock. This level of precision is made possible by advanced electronics, itself made possible by Mooreâs law. As the oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens told Forbes, âYou can drill two miles down, take a right turn, drill another two miles, and pick the lock to someoneâs front door. Thatâs how precise it is.â4 Mooreâs law, then, describes a tendency to create excess capacity not just of electronic chips but of oil, factories, shippingâeverything.
As for global reach, you might wish you had a billion-dollar advertising budget to reach the global marketplace. But no budgets will be large enough in the future, because of our other friend, Metcalfeâs law, which describes the exponential creation of a near infinite number of connections and ways to reach customers. Fast-moving small companies can find more niches and customers than ever. The same is true of technology power. The cloud is rapidly commoditizing the availability of top-class technology. You donât have to buy equipment from IBM; you can rent it by the second from Amazon, Alibaba, Google, Microsoft, and others.
Our point is to show you that although access to scale, global reach, and powerful technology is a requirement for success, it is not sufficient to create sustained success. It is being commoditized. It is losing its former status as a barrier to entry. It is becoming, as poker players like to say, mere table stakes in the game of economic competition. Instead, it is maneuverability that will be the new barrier to entry, the new essential for sustained rising value. Such maneuverability will come from the combination of global reach, great technology, and highly optimized teamsâteam genius, as we call it.
Here is the uncomfortable truth: Humans run to a much slower evolutionary clock than our inventions. To use an engineering term, we are the âgating factorâ that keeps a process from running faster. It is people, not scale or technology, who determine how well an organization adapts to change.
So, whether we know it or not, the difference in our rapidly accelerating world between a perpetually successful enterprise and a struggling, dysfunctional also-ran comes down to the people in those enterprisesâand even more, to how those people relate to each other as they form and re-form into teams.
Thus, even as the companies that expand their reach around the world grow bigger and more ambitious in their vision, they will, paradoxically, also have to become smaller and more focused in their execution. And, contrary to what many business prognosticators have assumed for the last half century, the more gigantic the enterprise and the more virtual and wired it becomes, the more likely that it will be dependent on dozens, hundreds, even thousands, of small, closely knit internal teams.
Thatâs why, at the nexus of two almost unprecedented forces in human historyâthe unrelenting, exponential advance of technological performance (speed), and the explosion of new connections in the global marketplace (reach)âone of the oldest human cultural phenomena, the team, finds itself as vital as ever before.
MASTERING MANEUVERABILITY
Both of the authors of this book knew Bill Walsh, the great San Francisco 49ers football coach of the 1980s. Walsh won three Super Bowls and left his successor with a team that won two more. Walsh died in 2007, but his playbook and team innovations redefined professional football for two generations.
We once asked Coach Walsh why he drafted Jerry Rice, a little-known wide receiver out of tiny Mississippi Valley State University. Rice went on to become the National Football Leagueâs all-time scorer. But in 1985, Walsh was alone among scouts and coaches in perceiving Riceâs true potential as a future Hall of Famer.
âRice was considered to be too slow for NFL greatness,â explained Walsh. âHis time in the forty-yard dash was only 4.7. Most great NFL receivers run 4.4 or faster. But when you studied the film from Riceâs college games, you saw two things different about Rice. One, he could turn on a dime. He could run sideways faster than anyone Iâd seen. His maneuverability left defenders wondering what happened. Two, Rice always finished his pass route within one foot of where he needed to be. Like he had a GPS in his head. [Quarterbacks] Joe Montana and Steve Young could count on him.â
Riceâs abilities give us an insight into success in the modern economy beyond scale, reach, and speed. In todayâs economy, it is essential to be maneuverable.
Maneuverability is more than rapid evolution. Sometimes even that is too slow. Rather, maneuverability is the capacity to turn, even reverse direction, quickly, to deal competently with whatever new changeâtechnology, market opportunity, or competitionâhas just burst onto the scene, and to do so without losing internal cohesion and breaking up. This is a challenge facing almost all institutions, from small retailers to the governments of great nations around the world.
The exponential forces at work in todayâs culture and economy reward winners quickly and punish losers mercilessly. Over here youâll find a resurgent Apple, but over there is sad, old Eastman Kodak. Germany on the one hand, Greece on the other. South Korea and North Korea, Silicon Valley and Detroit. As this book goes to press, prosperity and futility are being sorted out more swiftly, and dispersed more unevenly, than at any other period in our lifetimes. Whether the global economy improves or worsens, this new unevenness is here to stay.
History, of course, is filled with stories of maneuverable teams somehow surviving in incredibly dangerous situationsâand even triumphingâagainst almost impossible odds. Xenophonâs march, Magellanâs and Cookâs voyages, Marco Poloâs journey to the East, CortĂ©s and Pizarro, Stanleyâs search for Livingstone, the Bolsheviks, Shackletonâs expedition, Apollo 13. There are a multitude of such stories, and no doubt thousands more that were never recorded, such as the inhabitation of the South Pacific islands, the first exploration of North America across the Bering land bridge, and, most important of all, the survival of those few families of early humans who managed to avoid near extinction on the northern coast of Africa and gave birth to modern humankind.
What does this mean for those of us who lead businesses and organizations? Where will we find maneuverability? One answer, and one that seems counterintuitive at first glance, is structure. The size and composition of the most successful teams match archetypes that are as old as humankind, which suggests (as weâll see in later chapters) that there is a kind of organic strength and stability to these structures that cannot be matched by other, synthetic groupingsâmuch less by very large organizations.
Stability enables these teams to move with a common purpose, sometimes even when a situation demands that a team move in a different direction than the one for which it was created. The Silicon Valley legends Bill Hewlett and David Packard pursued bowling pin resetters, automatic flush urinals, and other failed ideas before they lit upon Hewlettâs old grad school project, the audio oscillator. Jim Clark, Marc Andreessen, and the other founders of Netscape were originally planning to go into the computer game business. Google was founded with no clue whatsoever about advertising. Amazon launched by selling books to consumers, not cloud services to businesses. Who knew Apple would become a giant in music? Organizations lacking maneuverability find such movesâalmost second nature to proper teamsâalmost impossible to execute.
Thatâs not to say that older and larger organizations cannot maneuver effectively and even make stunning reversals in direction. But it is exceedingly rare. And it almost never happens unless a small, cohesive team is found at the center or top of that organization and is endowed with two other crucial factors: the power to execute its decisions across the entire organization, and the trust of its players in the periphery around that team. Indeed, even the largest organizations can maneuver widely and with stunning speed in the face of rapid change if they are built out of genius teams in support of an empowered leadership.
APPLEâS COMEBACK
One of the greatest examples in business history of a large organizationâs maneuverability took place right before our eyes: Apple Inc. In September 2002, Appleâs future was thought to be so bleak, you could buy shares in Apple Computer at a price that valued its operating enterprise at less than zero. What you were buying, if you had been so bold, was Appleâs cash reserves of $5 billion. Beyond that, you were buying a prayer that Apple could do something with that cash.
Remember, this was five years after the return of Steve Jobs. Contrary to myth, Jobs did not immediately turn around Appleâs dismal fortunes. Yet just one decade later, Apple would drop the âComputerâ from its name but win the world. It would become the richest company on earth in September 2012, valued at $656 billion.
Meanwhile, during that decade of Appleâs extraordinary ascent, other great American companies, stalwarts of reliable business success, fared poorly. Among them were Pacific Gas & Electric, Enron, WorldCom, Tyco, Adelphia Communications, US Airways, Trump Entertainment Resorts, Northwest Airlines, Lehman Brothers, Washington Mutual, Chrysler, and General Motors. Thus, even while Apple prospered, a greater number of American companies went bankrupt or out of business altogether than in any decade in the countryâs history, including during the Great Depression.
How did Apple do it? Why did it succeed while its bigger and (initially) more successful neighbors faltered?
The simple answer is that during this period Apple managed to introduce a series of four monumental products and servicesâthe iPod, iTunes, the Apple Store, and the iPhone and iPadâthat created not only new industries but also entirely new multibillion-dollar market categories.
To understand how Apple ...