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The Art of Thinking Clearly
Rolf Dobelli
- 384 pages
- English
- ePUB (mobile friendly)
- Available on iOS & Android
The Art of Thinking Clearly
Rolf Dobelli
About This Book
A world-class thinker counts the 100 ways in which humans behave irrationally, showing us what we can do to recognize and minimize these "thinking errors" to make better decisions and have a better life
Despite the best of intentions, humans are notoriously badâthat is, irrationalâwhen it comes to making decisions and assessing risks and tradeoffs. Psychologists and neuroscientists refer to these distinctly human foibles, biases, and thinking traps as "cognitive errors." Cognitive errors are systematic deviances from rationality, from optimized, logical, rational thinking and behavior. We make these errors all the time, in all sorts of situations, for problems big and small: whether to choose the apple or the cupcake; whether to keep retirement funds in the stock market when the Dow tanks, or whether to take the advice of a friend over a stranger.
The "behavioral turn" in neuroscience and economics in the past twenty years has increased our understanding of how we think and how we make decisions. It shows how systematic errors mar our thinking and under which conditions our thought processes work best and worst. Evolutionary psychology delivers convincing theories about why our thinking is, in fact, marred. The neurosciences can pinpoint with increasing precision what exactly happens when we think clearly and when we don't.
Drawing on this wide body of research, The Art of Thinking Clearly is an entertaining presentation of these known systematic thinking errors--offering guidance and insight into everything why you shouldn't accept a free drink to why you SHOULD walk out of a movie you don't like it to why it's so hard to predict the future to why shouldn't watch the news. The book is organized into 100 short chapters, each covering a single cognitive error, bias, or heuristic. Examples of these concepts include: Reciprocity, Confirmation Bias, The It-Gets-Better-Before-It-Gets-Worse Trap, and the Man-With-A-Hammer Tendency. In engaging prose and with real-world examples and anecdotes, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.
Frequently asked questions
Information
Why You Should Visit Cemeteries
Does Harvard Make You Smarter?
Why You See Shapes in the Clouds
If Fifty Million People Say Something Foolish, It Is Still Foolish
Table of contents
- Dedication
- Contents
- Introduction
- 1 Why You Should Visit Cemeteries: Survivorship Bias
- 2 Does Harvard Make You Smarter?: Swimmerâs Body Illusion
- 3 Why You See Shapes in the Clouds: Clustering Illusion
- 4 If Fifty Million People Say Something Foolish, It Is Still Foolish: Social Proof
- 5 Why You Should Forget the Past: Sunk Cost Fallacy
- 6 Donât Accept Free Drinks: Reciprocity
- 7 Beware the âSpecial Caseâ: Confirmation Bias (Part 1)
- 8 Murder Your Darlings: Confirmation Bias (Part 2)
- 9 Donât Bow to Authority: Authority Bias
- 10 Leave Your Supermodel Friends at Home: Contrast Effect
- 11 Why We Prefer a Wrong Map to None at All: Availability Bias
- 12 Why âNo Pain, No Gainâ Should Set Alarm Bells Ringing: The Itâll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy
- 13 Even True Stories Are Fairy Tales: Story Bias
- 14 Why You Should Keep a Diary: Hindsight Bias
- 15 Why You Systematically Overestimate Your Knowledge and Abilities: Overconfidence Effect
- 16 Donât Take News Anchors Seriously: Chauffeur Knowledge
- 17 You Control Less Than You Think: Illusion of Control
- 18 Never Pay Your Lawyer by the Hour: Incentive Super-Response Tendency
- 19 The Dubious Efficacy of Doctors, Consultants, and Psychotherapists: Regression to Mean
- 20 Never Judge a Decision by Its Outcome: Outcome Bias
- 21 Less Is More: Paradox of Choice
- 22 You Like Me, You Really, Really Like Me: Liking Bias
- 23 Donât Cling to Things: Endowment Effect
- 24 The Inevitability of Unlikely Events: Coincidence
- 25 The Calamity of Conformity: Groupthink
- 26 Why Youâll Soon Be Playing Mega Trillions: Neglect of Probability
- 27 Why the Last Cookie in the Jar Makes Your Mouth Water: Scarcity Error
- 28 When You Hear Hoofbeats, Donât Expect a Zebra: Base-Rate Neglect
- 29 Why the âBalancing Force of the Universeâ Is Baloney: Gamblerâs Fallacy
- 30 Why the Wheel of Fortune Makes Our Heads Spin: The Anchor
- 31 How to Relieve People of Their Millions: Induction
- 32 Why Evil Is More Striking Than Good: Loss Aversion
- 33 Why Teams Are Lazy: Social Loafing
- 34 Stumped by a Sheet of Paper: Exponential Growth
- 35 Curb Your Enthusiasm: Winnerâs Curse
- 36 Never Ask a Writer If the Novel Is Autobiographical: Fundamental Attribution Error
- 37 Why You Shouldnât Believe in the Stork: False Causality
- 38 Why Attractive People Climb the Career Ladder More Quickly: Halo Effect
- 39 Congratulations! Youâve Won Russian Roulette: Alternative Paths
- 40 False Prophets: Forecast Illusion
- 41 The Deception of Specific Cases: Conjunction Fallacy
- 42 Itâs Not What You Say, but How You Say It: Framing
- 43 Why Watching and Waiting Is Torture: Action Bias
- 44 Why You Are Either the Solutionâor the Problem: Omission Bias
- 45 Donât Blame Me: Self-Serving Bias
- 46 Be Careful What You Wish For: Hedonic Treadmill
- 47 Do Not Marvel at Your Existence: Self-Selection Bias
- 48 Why Experience Can Damage Your Judgment: Association Bias
- 49 Be Wary When Things Get Off to a Great Start: Beginnerâs Luck
- 50 Sweet Little Lies: Cognitive Dissonance
- 51 Live Each Day as If It Were Your Lastâbut Only on Sundays: Hyperbolic Discounting
- 52 Any Lame Excuse: âBecauseâ Justification
- 53 Decide BetterâDecide Less: Decision Fatigue
- 54 Would You Wear Hitlerâs Sweater?: Contagion Bias
- 55 Why There Is No Such Thing as an Average War: The Problem with Averages
- 56 How Bonuses Destroy Motivation: Motivation Crowding
- 57 If You Have Nothing to Say, Say Nothing: Twaddle Tendency
- 58 How to Increase the Average IQ of Two States: Will Rogers Phenomenon
- 59 If You Have an Enemy, Give Him Information: Information Bias
- 60 Hurts So Good: Effort Justification
- 61 Why Small Things Loom Large: The Law of Small Numbers
- 62 Handle with Care: Expectations
- 63 Speed Traps Ahead!: Simple Logic
- 64 How to Expose a Charlatan: Forer Effect
- 65 Volunteer Work Is for the Birds: Volunteerâs Folly
- 66 Why You Are a Slave to Your Emotions: Affect Heuristic
- 67 Be Your Own Heretic: Introspection Illusion
- 68 Why You Should Set Fire to Your Ships: Inability to Close Doors
- 69 Disregard the Brand New: Neomania
- 70 Why Propaganda Works: Sleeper Effect
- 71 Why Itâs Never Just a Two-Horse Race: Alternative Blindness
- 72 Why We Take Aim at Young Guns: Social Comparison Bias
- 73 Why First Impressions Are Deceiving: Primacy and Recency Effects
- 74 Why You Canât Beat Homemade: Not-Invented-Here Syndrome
- 75 How to Profit from the Implausible: The Black Swan
- 76 Knowledge Is Nontransferable: Domain Dependence
- 77 The Myth of Like-Mindedness: False-Consensus Effect
- 78 You Were Right All Along: Falsification of History
- 79 Why You Identify with Your Football Team: In-Group Out-Group Bias
- 80 The Difference between Risk and Uncertainty: Ambiguity Aversion
- 81 Why You Go with the Status Quo: Default Effect
- 82 Why âLast Chancesâ Make Us Panic: Fear of Regret
- 83 How Eye-Catching Details Render Us Blind: Salience Effect
- 84 Why Money Is Not Naked: House-Money Effect
- 85 Why New Yearâs Resolutions Donât Work: Procrastination
- 86 Build Your Own Castle: Envy
- 87 Why You Prefer Novels to Statistics: Personification
- 88 You Have No Idea What You Are Overlooking: Illusion of Attention
- 89 Hot Air: Strategic Misrepresentation
- 90 Whereâs the Off Switch?: Overthinking
- 91 Why You Take On Too Much: Planning Fallacy
- 92 Those Wielding Hammers See Only Nails: DĂ©formation Professionnelle
- 93 Mission Accomplished: Zeigarnik Effect
- 94 The Boat Matters More Than the Rowing: Illusion of Skill
- 95 Why Checklists Deceive You: Feature-Positive Effect
- 96 Drawing the Bullâs-Eye around the Arrow: Cherry Picking
- 97 The Stone Age Hunt for Scapegoats: Fallacy of the Single Cause
- 98 Why Speed Demons Appear to Be Safer Drivers: Intention-to-Treat Error
- 99 Why You Shouldnât Read the News: News Illusion
- Epilogue
- Acknowledgments
- A Note on Sources
- About the Author
- Credits
- Copyright
- About the Publisher