1 The politics of EU enlargement
Theoretical and comparative perspectives1
Frank Schimmelfennig and Ulrich Sedelmeier
The study of enlargement: political relevance, theoretical neglect and methodological shortcomings
The enlargement of the European Union (EU) is a key political process, both for the EU and for international relations in Europe. While enlargement was a sporadic event for much of the EUâs history, the end of the Cold War dramatically increased its salience and established it as a permanent item on the EUâs agenda. Three members of the European Free Trade Area (EFTA) joined in 1995 (Austria, Sweden, Finland). Eight Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) â the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Slovakia â plus Cyprus and Malta acceded in May 2004. Bulgaria and Romania are currently engaged in accession negotiations and had 2007 confirmed as a plausible date for membership. The Commission has cautiously recommended opening accession negotiations with Turkey. The EU has also acknowledged the membership perspective of the countries of the western Balkans and the Commission issued a positive opinion on Croatiaâs application.
The EUâs transformation from an exclusively West European organization into the centre of gravity of pan-European institution-building makes it a dominant locus of domestic policy-making and transnational relations for the entire region. âEuropeâ is increasingly defined in terms of the EU; the âEuropeanizationâ or âEuropeannessâ of individual countries has come to be measured by the intensity of institutional relations with the EU and by the adoption of its organizational norms and rules (see, e.g., Katzenstein 1997b: 262; Schimmelfennig and Sedelmeier 2005).
EU enlargement has far-reaching implications not only for the political shape of Europe but also for the EUâs institutional set-up and its major policies. In the case of eastern enlargement, this was reflected in the tough intra-EU negotiations over the budget, the agricultural and regional policies, and the representation of members in EU institutions.
In light of its political relevance, it is striking that EU enlargement has been a largely neglected issue in the theory of regional integration (see also Friis and Murphy 1999; Wallace 2000). The classical approaches to the study of integration such as neo-functionalism and transactionalism mentioned the geographical growth of international communities only in passing (see Deutsch 1970: 4, 43â4; Haas 1968: 313â17; Schmitter 1969: 165). This is not surprising: analysing the establishment and stabilization of regional organizations logically precedes studying their territorial expansion. Moreover, the heyday of regional integration theory had come to an end before the EUâs first enlargement in 1973.2 In addition, the subsequent move towards the analysis of substantive policies and the adoption of theoretical frameworks from comparative politics (such as neo-corporatism and network analysis) did little to further research on such a polity-building issue as enlargement (see Friis and Murphy 1999: 213). It is more surprising that the revival of regional integration studies in the early 1990s and the theoretical debate between âintergovernmentalismâ and âsupranationalismâ still focused exclusively upon such issues of âdeepeningâ as the Single European Act, Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), or legal integration.
The increased salience of enlargement since the end of the Cold War resulted in a sizeable body of literature. While much of this literature consists of descriptive studies of single cases â such as single enlargement rounds, single countries, or single policy areas â the EFTA and eastern enlargement have also triggered theory-oriented work. These analyses have started to address a number of weaknesses that have characterized the study of enlargement, namely (1) an insularity of the study of EU enlargement which divorced it from the study of other international organizations; (2) the lack of comparative research designs; (3) an underspecification of dependent variables and a neglect of important dimensions of enlargement; and (4) an underspecification of explanatory factors or independent variables, and a subsequent neglect of exploring alternative explanations. Yet more work in this direction is necessary to make the insights of these studies more generalizable and thus to contribute to our cumulative understanding of enlargement.
The goal of this volume is to bring together in a systematic form the insights from recent theoretically informed studies of EU enlargement. These studies provide examples of comparativist and statistical analyses of EU enlargement and explore under-researched aspects of the enlargement process. More generally, they contribute to the debate between rationalist and constructivist analyses in international relations (IR) theory.
This introductory chapter makes three main contributions to structuring the study of EU enlargement. First, we provide a conceptualization of enlargement that relates EU enlargement to the study of international organizations more broadly. We thus define EU enlargement as a process of gradual and formal horizontal institutionalization. We then distinguish four main dimensions of a thus-defined enlargement, draw out the key research questions in each of them, and propose comparative research strategies to address them. Our second goal is theory development. We suggest that, rather than striving for some kind of âenlargement theoryâ, it is more fruitful to link up the study of enlargement (as institutionalization) with the study of institutions in IR and European integration studies. Drawing on two basic approaches to the analysis of international organizations â rationalist and sociological or constructivist institutionalism â we derive core hypotheses on the conditions of enlargement. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of these theoretical approaches in structuring the debate in an overview of the state of research on EU enlargement.
Enlargement: definition and research focus
Definition
Even though this is a book on the enlargement of the EU, our conceptual and theoretical focus is more general. To encourage comparative analysis, our definitions, research foci, and hypotheses can also be applied to the enlargement of other regional organizations. We propose to define the enlargement of an organization as a process of gradual and formal horizontal institutionalization of organizational rules and norms.
Institutionalization means the process by which the actions and interactions of social actors come to be normatively patterned. The difference between âhorizontalâ and âverticalâ institutionalization corresponds to the common usage of âwideningâ and âdeepeningâ. Horizontal institutionalization takes place when institutions spread beyond the incumbent actors, that is, when the group of actors whose actions and relations are governed by the organizationâs norms becomes larger.
Organizational membership and organizational norms are formally defined. It is therefore reasonable to concentrate on formal and purposive acts of horizontal institutionalization such as the conclusion of association agreements or the signing and coming into effect of accession treaties. However, organizational norms also spread informally (âdiffuseâ) beyond the boundaries of the organization, both to aspiring members and to states that have no intention to join. Such diffusion might result from unilateral adaptation in order to mitigate negative externalities of regional integration itself, or from a convergence of practices when non-members consider institutional templates of the organization as viable responses to broader systemic challenges. We suggest focusing on purposive alignment with organizational rules, either more narrowly with a view to accession, or more broadly when changes in institutional practices are a direct response to regional integration.
Horizontal institutionalization is a matter of degree, and enlargement is best conceptualized as a gradual process that begins before, and continues after, the admission of new members to the organization. Even in the absence of full membership, outside actors might follow certain organizational norms and rules. Non-members align with organizational rules as a result of the organizationâs accession conditionality, or because these rules are embodied in formal agreements that create an institutional relationship short of full membership, such as association agreements or agreements to participate in selected policies of the organization (e.g., the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement or the Swiss treaties with the EU). Conversely, new members of the organization may negotiate post-accession transition periods before applying some of its norms, or they might begin to participate in some of the organizationâs policies at different times â as in EMU or the Schengen Agreement.
What are the consequences of such a definition of enlargement? First, by defining enlargement as institutionalization, we establish an explicit link to the study of institutions and open the analysis of enlargement to theories about the establishment and effects of institutions. Second, it widens the field of enlargement studies beyond the narrow focus on decisions about formal membership. Such a wider focus includes, for example, horizontal institutionalization short of membership, the expansion of the organizationâs substantive policies, and the impact of horizontal institutionalization in the applicants, the member states, and the organization itself.
Research focus: dimensions of enlargement, dependent variables, and comparative strategies
We can distinguish four main dimensions or aspects of enlargement, which generate separate dependent variables for the study of enlargement. The literature on EU enlargement has focused primarily on three dimensions of enlargement. These dimensions concern the politics of EU enlargement: they analyse the process leading to enlargement, or to decisions on formal acts of horizontal institutionalization. These dimensions could be labelled respectively as (1) applicantsâ enlargement politics, (2) member state enlargement politics, and (3) EU enlargement politics. We suggest that, in the last case, it is useful to distinguish between the macro- or polity dimension and the substantive or policy dimension. While these three dimensions of the politics of EU enlargement are the main focus of this volume, a further dimension started to receive more attention only recently: (4) the impact of enlargement, i.e., the effects of these formal acts of horizontal institutionalization.
In this subsection, we identify the main research questions in each of these main dimensions of enlargement in order to encourage a clearer specification of dependent variables, which should facilitate debate and make research results more comparable. Moreover, we observe that, to the extent that theoretical studies exist, they have been primarily single case studies. We thus suggest how in each dimension a broadening of the empirical focus can lead to a more comparative research design towards more cross-sectional and longitudinal studies.3 Cross-sectional studies compare the politics of different applicants and member states, the EU and other regional organizations, diverse policy areas, and the impact of enlargement in different domestic and international settings. Longitudinal studies take the comparison further to the study of applicant and member-state politics over time, the analysis of different enlargement rounds, and short-term and long-term impacts. Table 1.1 maps the state of the literature on the basis of these suggestions about dependent variables and comparative strategies.4
(1) Applicant enlargement politics
The basic question with regard to this dimension is why and under which conditions non-members seek accession to a regional organization. Since horizontal institutionalization does not result only from full membership in a regional organization, the broader question is under which conditions outsiders pursue a change in their institutional relationship with the regional organization and what kind of institutional relationship they prefer. Especially with regard to the EFTA enlargement, there is already a sizeable body of theoretically informed literature, which goes beyond single cases and uses cross-sectional comparisons within the same enlargement round. These insights can be improved through longitudinal comparisons across enlargement rounds (Mattli 1999; Bieler ch. 4 this volume; Schimmelfennig ch. 8 this volume) and comparisons with cases of countries that chose not to join (Gstöhl ch. 2 this volume) or to apply (Mattli and PlĂŒmper ch. 3 this volume).
Table 1.1 Dependent variables and comparative strategies in the enlargement literature
(2) Member-state enlargement politics
The main question is under which conditions a member state of a regional organization favours or opposes enlargement to a particular applicant country. Theoretical studies of this dimension usually focus on single member states (Collins 2002; Hyde-Price 2000; Tewes 1998). Even descriptive studies that compare more than one member state are extremely rare (Lippert et al. 2001). More systematic insights could be gained from comparisons of more member states and/or across enlargement rounds. Furthermore, while studies of this dimension of enlargement have concentrated mainly on member states, the focus could be broadened to analyse actors within the regional organization other than national governments, such as institutional actors.
(3) EU enlargement politics
Under which conditions does the regional organization admit a new member, or modify its institutional relationship with outside states? There are two analytically separate dimensions to this question, which relate to the macro-dimension and the substantive dimension of enlargement respectively.
The macro-dimension relates to the EU as a polity and concerns the question of candidate selection and patterns of national membership of the organization. The main questions are why the organization prefers to admit one state rather than another and why it offers membership rather than some other form of (or no) institutional relationship. While there is an emerging body of theoretical literature on this dimension, studies have focused on single cases, mainly eastern enlargement (Friis 1998a, 1998b; Moravcsik and Vachudova ch. 9 this volume; Schimmelfennig 1998, ch. 7 this volume; Sedelmeier forthcoming, ch. 6 this volume; Sjursen 2002; SkÄlnes ch. 10 this volume). Preston (1997) provides a rare, but still predominantly descriptive, comparative analysis of successive EU enlargements.
There are some cross-sectional comparisons with the same enlargement round of other...