CHAPTER ONE
Why Social Media Is So Important for Investors
Some investors have already discovered the importance of social media as an investing resource. However, the world of social finance is still in its infancy. Recently, stock market observers have borne witness to several jarring examples of how messages on social media websites such as Twitter (www.twitter.com) can move markets. Yet many active users of social media resources are unaware of, or are underusing, the features that define these applications as financial and investment research tools. In other instances, individuals with a vested interest in the stock market are simply not tuned in to social media at all. This chapter highlights the contrast between the powerful influence of social media on financial markets and the limited extent to which it is currently being used by investors.
A Metaphor for Social Finance
Our galaxy, the Milky Way, and our closest galactic neighbor, Andromeda, will collide someday. That event has been predicted with near certainty by NASA, thanks to the Hubble Space Telescope. According to NASA, Andromeda is approaching us at a velocity that is 2,000 times faster than a Major League pitcherâs fastball. Even at that astounding speed, it will take about four billion years for the galactic collision to take place.
The worlds of investing and the Internet are also on a collision course, but investors wonât have to wait billions of years to see its effects. It is already happening. These two big spheres of activityâinvesting and the Internetâboth operate at a breakneck pace. They are beginning to coalesce, and we are awash in the disruptive ripple effects of their convergence. You donât need the Hubble Telescope to see this. Its effects can be detected with the naked eye.
On April 23, 2013, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 145 pointsâa 1 percentage point moveâthen quickly recovered its entire loss, all in the space of about two minutes. This rare instance of market whiplash occurred in the cramped interval between 1:07 P.M. and 1:10 P.M. Those few panic-ridden minutes of trading were precipitated by a false rumor that President Obama had been injured by two explosions at the White House. The means by which the rumor spread was Twitter. It was quickly revealed that someone had hacked the Twitter account of the Associated Press and transmitted the phony news.
Instances of compromised e-mail and social media accounts are not uncommon. However, this bit of disturbing news raised the specter of a grave national security threat. It not only jarred onlookers but also erased and, just as quickly, restored, $136 billion in stock market value. Any trader working on Wall Street that day who had stepped away from his desk at 1:06 P.M. to go to the bathroom probably missed the entire rollercoaster ride.
This brief, scary instance of trading chaos would not have occurred without two contributing elements. First, the new unstructured, chaotic, irrepressible, and sometimes irresponsible world of social media has clashed with the U.S. securities market, a bastion of the âold economy.â For those who had never used Twitter, the hackersâ deception probably seemed like a sinister, high-tech prank by a comic book villain. But to the stock market, this hyperkinetic reaction to this tidbit of fake news was no joke. Computerized trading programs catalyzed events, even as human onlookers greeted the hacker-conceived rumor with a mix of skepticism and dread, and algorithmic systems hastened a selloff that left even market veterans in a brief state of shock.
Individual investors are but one group that must reckon with the maelstrom of social media and its effects on the investment markets. In April 2013, the New York Times highlighted the concerned reactions of members of the institutional investment community to the White House explosion rumor. Seasoned Wall Street traders must scramble to sort through a deluge of social media messages, separate the relevant from the meaningless, and distinguish between the accurate and the apocryphal. Financial service and media firms hire technology companies to help them filter through social media messages and identify those that are truly relevant.
In the wake of the Associated Press hacking debacle, it is not hard to imagine similarly fast, and equally disturbing, scenarios playing out again. Investors can prepare themselves for such unforeseen events by removing the veil of mystery that seems to be wrapped around the world of social media.
Many Internet Users Underuse Social Mediaâs Investment Tools
According to a study by Pew Research Center, 73 percent of all Internet users are active on social media websites. According to the same study, which was published in 2012, an estimated 18 percent of all Internet users are active on Twitter. The fact that Twitter has penetrated only a small percentage of the overall Internet-using population is evidence of its growth potential as a business and financial research tool. Internet user statistics reveal another important unrealized opportunity: Many investors who already use social media have not yet taken advantage of some of the basic, empowering attributes of Twitter.
An important feature of Twitter, one that is a particularly useful business tool, is the âhashtagââthe â#â symbol users sometimes place in front of a word or phrase to categorize it by its subject. Users can simply submit, and search for, messages that include a hashtag. Using hashtags helps ensure that oneâs tweets are easily found by other Twitter users during online searches. For example, investors searching on Twitter for information about investing might look under â#investing.â Without the inclusion of hashtags, the searching process on Twitter is far less effective. Yet, according to a survey of mobile device users by RadiumOne, an online advertising firm, only 58 percent of consumers use hashtags on a regular basis. Even frequent users of social media often donât employ hashtags. Recently I asked a student audience how many of them use hashtags. A surprisingly small number of studentsâwell less than half of those in attendanceâsaid that they did.
Another important Internet tagging and search convention for investment research is the use of the âcashtag,â represented by a dollar sign, paired with a stock symbol (e.g., â$GEâ for General Electric). The importance of using cashtagsâa social media notation that was pioneered by StockTwits and later adopted by Twitterâis discussed at length in Chapter 5.
Although the cashtag has become ubiquitous on investing website StockTwits (www.stocktwits.com), it is only in its early stages of adoption on Twitter. In October 2013, Statista, an online statistics portal, published its findings regarding the most discussed companies on Twitter, as measured by the mention of cashtags in tweets originated in August 2013. Not surprisingly, Apple, the U.S. company with the largest stock market value, topped Statistaâs list of the ten âmost cashtaggedâ stocks. However, the use of cashtags was limited to a small group of securities. During August 2013, cashtag mentions for just three stocksâApple Inc., Tesla Motors Inc., and BlackBerry Limitedâaccounted for approximately 60 percent of the total number of Twitter cashtag mentions observed for those top ten stocks. Although Apple, Tesla, and Blackberry dominated the âcashtag conversationâ on Twitter, their stocks accounted for, in aggregate, only 32 percent of the total market value of all those top ten stocks.
A Wake-Up Call
Many seasoned individual investors were deeply affected by the burst of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the great financial crisis of 2008. They became skeptical about financial advice and distrustful of financial advisors, and they question the motives of people who work on Wall Street. But mostly, they are pragmatists who want their money to work for them, rather than have it lie under a mattress, and they understand that interest income from money market accounts canât keep pace with inflation (even when inflation is as tame as they can remember). It is harder than ever to understand how the stock market works. There is something new and unsettling about how it functions.
When many people outside the world of finance think of the people who work on Wall Street, they come up with what may be unfair characterizations. They generally imagine Wall Streeters to be young and technologically savvy, perhaps even the coddled beneficiaries of the Information Age.
How much of social media you let into your life is, of course, your own choice. However, I hope that after finishing this book you will come away with an appreciation for how this technology can open doors for you as an investor.
There is a dizzying array of choices out there for those who want to tap the power of the Internet. You may be new to many of them. Just beneath the surface layer of social mediaâthe Facebooks and Twittersâlies a substratum of quirky, lesser-known applications. They are instantly recognizable to some by their whimsical, colorful icons. They have names that are equally whimsical: reddit, Digg, Delicious, and StumbleUpon. They are often referred to as social bookmarking websites. As an investor, you may not use them, but you need to know that they exist.
In order to benefit from the information that is out there, there are a few things you need to understand about social media, particularly if youâre new to it or have only used it a small amount.
First, you should know that social media is transforming the way information is conveyed to investors. We have all observed the informal way in which people communicate when they use e-mail and social media websites. The writing is punchy and laced with cryptic acronyms. Twitter cuts off all user messages at 140 characters, and so tweeted messages have an abbreviated, staccato-like rhythm. This new brand of shorthand has crept into business writing. The benefits and drawbacks of its succinctness are already affecting how companies address their stakeholders.
Second, you should know that powerful changes in the structure and operation of the stock market are unfolding. Just as the lightning-fast pace of Twitter message feeds can seem daunting to the individual investor, the dramatically accelerated speed at which stock trading takes place intimidates even seasoned stock market professionals. Today, computerized automation manages many aspects of what has long been a human institution.
According to the research and consulting firm, TABB Group, more than half of the U.S. equity trading volume can now be attributed to activity by hedge funds, high-frequency traders, and computerized algorithms. Many individual investors increasingly feel that stock market investing is something thatâs no longer âby them,â or âfor them.â To them, the stock market has taken on a cold, mechanized feeling. As the Wall Street Journal aptly said, âStocks arenât fun anymore; they are scary.â
Many investment clubsâorganizations that cater to the needs and interests of nonprofessional investors who have a passion for the stock marketâare also at risk of falling behind in the new world of social finance. Last August, I walked over to my town library to attend a meeting of the local chapter of a statewide investment club. I entered the libraryâs main meeting room, where I found eleven people sitting around a U-shaped table, shuffling through dog-eared printouts of dated Value Line Investment Survey stock reports. Value Line stock reviews have their place, and investment clubs are still important, but the world of investing has changed dramatically in the last twenty years. The need to find new, relevant information, and the ability to find it quickly, has made the use of the Inter...